Sumou Real Estate Company (4323) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Sumou Real Estate Company stock SAR 56.43, price SAR 23.24, upside +142.8%, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 21.84 SAR – 63.01 SAR · fair‑value band 34.72 SAR – 97.31 SAR · the 23.24 SAR price screens below the 56.43 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 28, 2026.
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Sumou Real Estate Company, together with its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the real estate development business in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It operates through Real Estate Projects Development; Real Estate Project Management; and Investments in Equity Instruments and Properties segments.
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The company engages in the general construction of residential and non-residential buildings, airports and their facilities, and prefabricated buildings; renovation of residential and non-residential buildings; purchase and sale of land and real estate properties; land subdivision; off-plan sales activities; real estate brokerage activities; property management; real estate contributions; and management and leasing of owned or leased properties.
It also invests in equity instruments and properties. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Al Khobar, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Sumou Real Estate Company operates as a subsidiary of Sumou Holding Company.
Stock analysis
Sumou Real Estate Company (4323) currently trades at 23.24 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 56.43 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 58.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 66.59 SAR per share, and 12 of the 16 models we run sit above the 23.24 SAR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 10.29 SAR, and 4 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 34.72 SAR (bear) to 97.31 SAR (bull), the price of 23.24 SAR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Sumou Real Estate Company reported revenue of 523M SAR in FY2025 versus 103M SAR in FY2021, a compound +50.0%/yr. Reported net income was 135M SAR in FY2025, compounding +13.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.2B SAR (≈ $309M) Small · P/E ratio 8.2 · P/S ratio 1.78 · EPS (TTM) 2.85 SAR · Dividend yield 4.4% · Net margin 22.0% · Return on equity 19.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 72 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at 143%, 4323 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear34.72 SARFair Value 56.43 SARBull97.31 SAR
Price 23.24 SAR · Upside +142.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (2.36 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+21.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+11.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.82% → 25%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.7%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.6% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 578 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+142.8% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)19.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)22.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)24.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)42.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)4.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sumou Real Estate Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4323
Frequently asked questions
Is Sumou Real Estate Company (4323) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 56.43 SAR versus a price of 23.24 SAR, about +143% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 4323?
Our model-based fair value for Sumou Real Estate Company is 56.43 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 23.24 SAR.
What is the quality score of 4323?
Sumou Real Estate Company has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sumou Real Estate Company (4323)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 56.43 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario 34.72 SAR, optimistic scenario 97.31 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sumou Real Estate Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 56.43 SAR, about +143% upside versus a price of 23.24 SAR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 34.72 SAR, optimistic scenario 97.31 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sumou Real Estate Company (4323)?
Sumou Real Estate Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 651M SAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 28, 2026).
Does Sumou Real Estate Company pay a dividend?
Sumou Real Estate Company currently shows a dividend yield of 4.43% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sumou Real Estate Company (4323)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sumou Real Estate Company would have to grow free cash flow by -6.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +40.0 % per year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4323 use?
Our models discount Sumou Real Estate Company at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.11, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sumou Real Estate Company that is -6.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sumou Real Estate Company (4323) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sumou Real Estate Company grew +40.0 % a year. The price currently implies -6.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sumou Real Estate Company (4323) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sumou Real Estate Company (-6.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sumou Real Estate Company (4323)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.40 %: that much free cash flow Sumou Real Estate Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sumou Real Estate Company (4323)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sumou Real Estate Company it is 56.43 SAR per share (as of Oct 28, 2026), against a price of 23.24 SAR. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sumou Real Estate Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 28, 2026, 4323 trades below its calculated fair value: price 23.24 SAR, fair value 56.43 SAR, a gap of about +143% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4323?
No. The price is what the market pays today (23.24 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (56.43 SAR). For Sumou Real Estate Company the two are 33.19 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sumou Real Estate Company worth?
The market values Sumou Real Estate Company at about 1.2B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 28, 2026). Per share that is 23.24 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 56.43 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4323?
Our models span a range for Sumou Real Estate Company: cautious scenario 34.72 SAR, base 56.43 SAR, optimistic 97.31 SAR per share (as of Oct 28, 2026, price 23.24 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4323?
Sumou Real Estate Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.2 (as of Oct 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 56.43 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 5.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sumou Real Estate Company (4323)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sumou Real Estate Company (as of Oct 28, 2026): return on equity 19.6%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4323 from its 52-week high?
Sumou Real Estate Company trades at 23.24 SAR, about 39% below its 52-week high of 38.25 SAR and 6% above the low of 21.84 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 56.43 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sumou Real Estate Company?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, Vinhomes Joint Stock Company, CK Asset Holdings, Hongkong Land Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sumou Real Estate Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 28, 2026: price 23.24 SAR, calculated fair value 56.43 SAR (+143%), Quality Score 61/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4323 calculated?
We run Sumou Real Estate Company through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 56.43 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Sumou Real Estate Company currently trades 59 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sumou Real Estate Company (4323)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was 23.24 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 56.43 SAR, about +143% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sumou Real Estate Company right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (34.72 SAR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (34.72 SAR to 97.31 SAR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Sumou Real Estate Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Sumou Real Estate Company (4323)?
The market capitalisation of Sumou Real Estate Company is 1.2B SAR (≈ $309M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sumou Real Estate Company (4323)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sumou Real Estate Company is 1.78 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sumou Real Estate Company (4323)?
Earnings per share at Sumou Real Estate Company are 2.85 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sumou Real Estate Company (4323)?
The dividend yield of Sumou Real Estate Company is 4.4% (payout 36.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sumou Real Estate Company (4323)?
The net margin of Sumou Real Estate Company is 22.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sumou Real Estate Company (4323)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sumou Real Estate Company is 19.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sumou Real Estate Company (4323)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sumou Real Estate Company is 9.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sumou Real Estate Company (4323)?
The operating margin of Sumou Real Estate Company is 24.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sumou Real Estate Company (4323)?
Revenue at Sumou Real Estate Company is growing +42.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sumou Real Estate Company (4323)?
Earnings per share at Sumou Real Estate Company are growing −15.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Sumou Real Estate Company (4323) carry?
The net debt of Sumou Real Estate Company is 308M SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 28, 2026