Mefic REIT (4346) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Mefic REIT is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 3.26 SAR – 8.95 SAR · fair‑value band 0.5700 SAR – 2.23 SAR · the 3.27 SAR price screens above the 1.45 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Middle East Financial Investment Company operates as a financial services company in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It operates through Corporate; Asset management; Real Estate; and Private Equity and Investment Banking segments.
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Middle East Financial Investment Company operates as a financial services company in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It operates through Corporate; Asset management; Real Estate; and Private Equity and Investment Banking segments. The company provides asset management services, such as fixed income products, discretionary portfolio management, and equity funds; private equity funds; and investment banking services that offers financial advisory services for initial public offerings, rights issues, mergers and acquisitions, and private placements. It also offers services and solutions in the field of real estate investments across various segments, such as residential, retail, office, and hospitality and student accommodation; and corporate finance and advisory, and custody services. The company serves individuals and corporates. Middle East Financial Investment Company was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Mefic REIT (4346) currently trades at 3.27 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1.45 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 125.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 4.72 SAR per share, and 3 of the 8 models we run sit above the 3.27 SAR price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at 1.16 SAR, and 5 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 0.5700 SAR (bear) to 2.23 SAR (bull), the price of 3.27 SAR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Mefic REIT reported revenue of 34.5M SAR in FY2025 versus 56.1M SAR in FY2021, a compound −11.4%/yr. Reported net income was 357K SAR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 240M SAR (≈ $63.8M) · P/E ratio 327.0 · P/S ratio 3.38 · EPS (TTM) 0.0100 SAR · Net margin 1.0% · Return on equity 0.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.1% · Operating margin 47.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −56%, 4346 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 0.5700 SARFair Value 1.45 SARBull 2.23 SAR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.0070 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−46.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−18.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.1%
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−3.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−58% vs −31%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.37% → 35%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Diversified · 155 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−56% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)0% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)47% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.67× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)327.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.13× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.00× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF1.8× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA9.1× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 19
FUTURE (revenue growth)44· sector 16
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)66· sector 75
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 100
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mefic REIT Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4346
Frequently asked questions
Is Mefic REIT (4346) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1.45 SAR versus a price of 3.27 SAR, about −56% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 4346?
Our model-based fair value for Mefic REIT is 1.45 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 3.27 SAR.
What is the quality score of 4346?
Mefic REIT has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mefic REIT (4346)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 1.45 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario 0.5700 SAR, optimistic scenario 2.23 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mefic REIT stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 1.45 SAR, about −56% upside versus a price of 3.27 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 0.5700 SAR, optimistic scenario 2.23 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mefic REIT (4346)?
Mefic REIT reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 64.8M SAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mefic REIT (4346)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mefic REIT would have to grow free cash flow by +10.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -12.1 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4346 use?
Our models discount Mefic REIT at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.12, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mefic REIT that is +10.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mefic REIT (4346) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mefic REIT grew -12.1 % a year. The price currently implies +10.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mefic REIT (4346) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mefic REIT (+10.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mefic REIT (4346)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.07 %: that much free cash flow Mefic REIT produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mefic REIT (4346)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mefic REIT it is 1.45 SAR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 3.27 SAR. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mefic REIT stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 4346 trades above its calculated fair value: price 3.27 SAR, fair value 1.45 SAR, a gap of about −56% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4346?
No. The price is what the market pays today (3.27 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (1.45 SAR). For Mefic REIT the two are 1.82 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mefic REIT worth?
The market values Mefic REIT at about 240M SAR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 3.27 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 1.45 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4346?
Our models span a range for Mefic REIT: cautious scenario 0.5700 SAR, base 1.45 SAR, optimistic 2.23 SAR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 3.27 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4346?
Mefic REIT trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 327.0 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 1.45 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.1, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 9.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mefic REIT (4346)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mefic REIT (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 0.1%, debt of 0.67 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4346 from its 52-week high?
Mefic REIT trades at 3.27 SAR, about 15% below its 52-week high of 3.83 SAR (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 1.45 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mefic REIT?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Goodman Group, VICI Properties Inc, W. P. Carey Inc, Charter Hall Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mefic REIT stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 3.27 SAR, calculated fair value 1.45 SAR (−56%), Quality Score 62/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4346 calculated?
We run Mefic REIT through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 1.45 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Mefic REIT itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Mefic REIT right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (2.23 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (0.5700 SAR to 2.23 SAR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Mefic REIT
How large is the market capitalisation of Mefic REIT (4346)?
The market capitalisation of Mefic REIT is 240M SAR (≈ $63.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mefic REIT (4346)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mefic REIT is 3.38 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mefic REIT (4346)?
Earnings per share at Mefic REIT are 0.0100 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 327.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Mefic REIT (4346)?
The net margin of Mefic REIT is 1.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mefic REIT (4346)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mefic REIT is 0.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mefic REIT (4346)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mefic REIT is 1.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mefic REIT (4346)?
The operating margin of Mefic REIT is 47.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mefic REIT (4346)?
Revenue at Mefic REIT is growing +8.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −18.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mefic REIT (4346)?
Earnings per share at Mefic REIT are growing −13.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Mefic REIT (4346) carry?
The net debt of Mefic REIT is 311M SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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