Stockland (SGP) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · AU · Market cap A$9.7B

A solid business, but screening 14% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$4.14). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$2.54 – A$6.38 · fair‑value band A$3.12 – A$4.14 · the A$4.30 price screens above the A$3.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Stockland (SGP) currently trades at A$4.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$3.70, implying the stock looks roughly 14.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Stockland generated revenue of A$3.5B at a net margin of 24.8%. Revenue grew 30.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.6%. Net debt stands at A$4.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from A$3.12 (bear case) to A$4.14 (bull case); at A$4.30, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -14%, SGP screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Multiples (A$5.21) versus Growth DCF (A$0.5800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Stockland is a leading creator and curator of connected communities with people at the heart of the places we create. For more than 70 years, we have built a proud legacy, helping more Australians achieve the dream of home ownership, and enabling the future of work and retail.

Full company description

Stockland is a leading creator and curator of connected communities with people at the heart of the places we create. For more than 70 years, we have built a proud legacy, helping more Australians achieve the dream of home ownership, and enabling the future of work and retail. Today, we continue to build on our history as one of Australia's largest diversified property groups to elevate the social value of our places, and create a tangible sense of human connection, belonging and community for our customers. We own, fund, develop and manage one of Australia's largest portfolios of residential and land lease communities, retail town centres, and workplace and logistics assets. Our approach is distinctive, bringing a unique combination of development expertise, scale, deep customer insight, and diverse talent - with care in everything we do. We are committed to contributing to the economic prosperity of Australia and the wellbeing of our communities and our planet. Stockland was incorporated in 1952 in Australia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Stockland reported revenue of A$3.1B in FY2025 versus A$2.7B in FY2021, a compound +3.5%/yr. Reported net income was A$826M in FY2025, compounding −7.0%/yr from FY2021.

SGP screens 14% overvalued. Compare with Goodman Group →

Peer Group

REIT - Diversified · 165 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Insider activity: 30/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.