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Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co (4528) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · TW · Market cap 1.3B TWD

CH Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co 4528 · TWO
Price15.20 TWD
Fair Value24.32 TWD
Upside+60.0%
Quality53/100
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Weak Growth
Loss-making · -2.0% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
1.31% dividend yield
Trails peers (4/11)
Narrow moat 24/100
Evidence: High Range 16.56 TWD – 32.09 TWD Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 20 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 21, 2026, revised from 23.08 TWD to 24.32 TWD (+5.4%) since Jul 21, 2026. Share price −0.7% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 60% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (16.56 TWD). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (16.56 TWD to 32.09 TWD) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

45.39 TWD 15.20 TWD Fair Value 24.32 TWD Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 15.20 TWD – 45.39 TWD · fair‑value band 16.56 TWD – 32.09 TWD · the 15.20 TWD price screens below the 24.32 TWD fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.

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Analysis

Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co (4528) currently trades at 15.20 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 24.32 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co generated revenue of 1.6B TWD at a net margin of -2.0%. Revenue declined 5.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -1.4%. Net debt stands at 537M TWD. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 16.56 TWD (bear case) to 32.09 TWD (bull case); at 15.20 TWD, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -44% fair-value upside, at 60%, 4528 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 23.15 TWD 29.07 TWD 38.24 TWD 80
Rev-Margin DCF 11.14 TWD 12.42 TWD 14.36 TWD 74
ROIC Compounder 2.09 TWD 2.11 TWD 2.13 TWD 72
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 22.49 TWD 28.73 TWD 39.20 TWD 38
Owner Earnings 16.86 TWD 21.39 TWD 29.00 TWD 31
5Y Revenue Exit 11.14 TWD 11.88 TWD 12.90 TWD 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 21.58 TWD 29.93 TWD 41.00 TWD 41
10Y Revenue Exit 16.05 TWD 17.03 TWD 17.77 TWD 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 21.85 TWD 27.22 TWD 32.83 TWD 37
Earnings-Based
EPV 2.09 TWD 2.11 TWD 2.13 TWD 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 1.55 TWD 1.67 TWD 1.86 TWD 70
DDM Multi-Stage 1.55 TWD 1.85 TWD 2.23 TWD 61
Multiples
EV/EBIT 2.47 TWD 2.65 TWD 2.83 TWD 53
EV/EBITDA 24.03 TWD 31.39 TWD 38.76 TWD 54
EV/Revenue 2.29 TWD 2.45 TWD 2.60 TWD 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 13.28 TWD 17.80 TWD 26.56 TWD 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 23.15 TWD 29.07 TWD 38.24 TWD 80
Rev-Margin DCF 11.14 TWD 12.42 TWD 14.36 TWD 74
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder 2.09 TWD 2.11 TWD 2.13 TWD 72

Widest divergence: DCF Models (21.39 TWD) versus Dividend Discount (1.67 TWD). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 1.6B TWD
Revenue growth (YoY) -5.5%
Net margin -2.0%
Return on equity -1.4%
Free cash flow 213M TWD FY2025
Operating margin -3.2%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) -0.3100 TWD
Dividend yield 1.3%
EPS growth (YoY) -77.3%
Net debt 537M TWD FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41

Profitability 14
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 39
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 70
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 50
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 83
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 30
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 12
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 65
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of various forged products in Taiwan. Its forged products include hardware, bicycle, motorbike, automobile, and track vehicle parts, as well as industrial engineering vehicle components and other products.

Full company description

Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of various forged products in Taiwan. Its forged products include hardware, bicycle, motorbike, automobile, and track vehicle parts, as well as industrial engineering vehicle components and other products. The company provides auto parts comprising driving element of front wheel, and C.V. joint of front wheel; yoke cross; mandril, rear axis, core axis of the generator, and air conditioning belt pulley; cross; bearing cup, piston, and housing; pinion, gear wheel, core shaft, and output input shaft; bevel gear; magnetic pole and driving gear; transmission bearing spang, transmission joint, and gears; big-sized parts; transmission parts; flang outer race; ammonia can; and aluminum alloy forging parts. It also offers assorted hardware parts, including impactors, saddles, pneumatic tooling, tone hole parts, disc knife, and rod couplings, as well as parts of sports goods, which include cranks, high-pressure joints, high-tension bolts/nuts, alloy bearing forgings, and tube forgings. In addition, the company provides motorcycle parts, such as gear shafts, gear blanks, start gears, transmission shafts, and ammonia cans for auto air-conditioners; starting gear and clutch gear forged work products; shaft and axle parts; and clutches, tube yokes, and chain gears. Further, it provides rail parts, such as tie plates, as well as bicycle parts, such as gear wheels. The company was formerly known as Hsieh Hsing Iron Factory and changed its name to Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co., Ltd. in 1980. Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co., Ltd. was founded in 1971 and is based in Taichung, Taiwan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co reported revenue of 1.6B TWD in FY2025 versus 2.5B TWD in FY2021, a compound −11.1%/yr. Reported net income was −25.7M TWD in FY2025.

Growth Quality 23/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
1.6B TWD
Latest YoY
−7.7%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−13.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−6.9%
Avg. growth/yr (10Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−3.4%
Revenue −11.1%/yr
FY21 2.5B TWD
FY22 2.4B TWD
FY23 1.9B TWD
FY24 1.7B TWD
FY25 1.6B TWD
Net income
FY21 181M TWD
FY22 180M TWD
FY23 76.4M TWD
FY24 823K TWD
FY25 −25.7M TWD

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4528

Peer Group

Auto Parts · 642 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 53 · Above median
Fair Value upside +60% · Top 25%
Return on assets -0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -3% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.3% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.21× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 0.03× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 16
FUTURE 0 · sector 23
PAST 0 · sector 26
HEALTH 90 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 26 · sector 30

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 21, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Hyundai Mobis Co 012330 482,000 KRW 678,420 KRW +41%
Magna International Inc MGAN 1,122 MXN 1,172 MXN +4%
Samvardhana Motherson International Limited MOTHERSON ₹144.17 ₹80.63 -44%
Bosch Limited BOSCHLTD ₹41,110 ₹14,004 -66%
Bharat Forge Limited BHARATFORG ₹2,117 ₹441.74 -79%
Uno Minda Limited UNOMINDA ₹1,158 ₹426.57 -63%
Schaeffler India Limited SCHAEFFLER ₹4,135 ₹1,412 -66%
Hankook Tire & Technology Co 161390 73,600 KRW 196,479 KRW +167%
MRF Limited MRF ₹131,025 ₹125,849 -4%
Sona BLW Precision Forgings Limited SONACOMS ₹792.00 ₹207.06 -74%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co (4528) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 21, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 24.32 TWD versus a price of 15.20 TWD, about +60% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 4528?
Our model-based fair value for Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co is 24.32 TWD (as of Jul 21, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 15.20 TWD.
What is the quality score of 4528?
Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co (4528)?
Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.6B TWD (latest available figure, as of Jul 21, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 4528?
The net profit margin of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co is about -2.0%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co pay a dividend?
Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.24% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 21, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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