Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd stock TWD 23.08, price TWD 13.90, upside +66.0%, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 12 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 13.90 TWD – 37.78 TWD · fair‑value band 15.72 TWD – 30.45 TWD · the 13.90 TWD price screens below the 23.08 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of various forged products in Taiwan. Its forged products include hardware, bicycle, motorbike, automobile, and track vehicle parts, as well as industrial engineering vehicle components and other products.
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The company provides auto parts comprising driving element of front wheel, and C.V. joint of front wheel; yoke cross; mandril, rear axis, core axis of the generator, and air conditioning belt pulley; cross; bearing cup, piston, and housing; pinion, gear wheel, core shaft, and output input shaft; bevel gear; magnetic pole and driving gear; transmission bearing spang, transmission joint, and gears; big-sized parts; transmission parts; flang outer race; ammonia can; and aluminum alloy forging parts.
It also offers assorted hardware parts, including impactors, saddles, pneumatic tooling, tone hole parts, disc knife, and rod couplings, as well as parts of sports goods, which include cranks, high-pressure joints, high-tension bolts/nuts, alloy bearing forgings, and tube forgings.
In addition, the company provides motorcycle parts, such as gear shafts, gear blanks, start gears, transmission shafts, and ammonia cans for auto air-conditioners; starting gear and clutch gear forged work products; shaft and axle parts; and clutches, tube yokes, and chain gears.
Further, it provides rail parts, such as tie plates, as well as bicycle parts, such as gear wheels. The company was formerly known as Hsieh Hsing Iron Factory and changed its name to Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co., Ltd. in 1980.
Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co., Ltd. was founded in 1971 and is based in Taichung, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528) currently trades at 13.90 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 23.08 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 40% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 32.14 TWD per share, and 7 of the 12 models we run sit above the 13.90 TWD price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 23.08 TWD, and 5 of the 12 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 15.72 TWD (bear) to 30.45 TWD (bull), the price of 13.90 TWD sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd reported revenue of 1.6B TWD in FY2025 versus 2.5B TWD in FY2021, a compound −11.1%/yr. Reported net income was −25.7M TWD in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 1.2B TWD (≈ $35.6M) Micro · P/S ratio 0.81 · EPS (TTM) −0.6600 TWD · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin −3.7% · Return on equity −2.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin −6.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 66%, 4528 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear15.72 TWDFair Value 23.08 TWDBull30.45 TWD
Price 13.90 TWD · Upside +66.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.23/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.4% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
12.3% (2020) → 0.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−8.6%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −10.0% a year for the price.
Compare Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 655 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside+66.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−0.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−3.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−6.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−8.5% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.21× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4528
Frequently asked questions
Is Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 23.08 TWD versus a price of 13.90 TWD, about +66% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 4528?
Our model-based fair value for Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd is 23.08 TWD (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 13.90 TWD.
What is the quality score of 4528?
Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 23.08 TWD (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario 15.72 TWD, optimistic scenario 30.45 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 23.08 TWD, about +66% upside versus a price of 13.90 TWD (undervalued). Cautious scenario 15.72 TWD, optimistic scenario 30.45 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528)?
Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.5B TWD (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 1.44% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd pays a dividend of 0.2 TWD per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.4%. The last ex-dividend date was Apr 16, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2008. Free cash flow covers the dividend 12.67 times. Our assessment: Cash covered. The dividend is fully funded by free cash flow. The payout ratio on earnings is not available for this company.
What growth is priced into Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -8.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -6.9 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4528 use?
Our models discount Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.21, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd that is -8.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd grew -6.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -8.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (-8.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 18.23 %: that much free cash flow Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd it is 23.08 TWD per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of 13.90 TWD. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, 4528 trades below its calculated fair value: price 13.90 TWD, fair value 23.08 TWD, a gap of about +66% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4528?
No. The price is what the market pays today (13.90 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (23.08 TWD). For Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd the two are 9.18 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd worth?
The market values Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd at about 1.2B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is 13.90 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 23.08 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4528?
Our models span a range for Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd: cautious scenario 15.72 TWD, base 23.08 TWD, optimistic 30.45 TWD per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price 13.90 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity −2.6%, debt of 0.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4528 from its 52-week high?
Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd trades at 13.90 TWD, about 35% below its 52-week high of 21.40 TWD and at the low of 13.90 TWD (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 23.08 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price 13.90 TWD, calculated fair value 23.08 TWD (+66%), Quality Score 52/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4528 calculated?
We run Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd through 12 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 23.08 TWD builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd currently trades 40% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 13.90 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 23.08 TWD, about +66% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (15.72 TWD). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (15.72 TWD to 30.45 TWD) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528)?
The market capitalisation of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd is 1.2B TWD (≈ $35.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd is 0.81 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528)?
Earnings per share at Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd are −0.6600 TWD. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528)?
The dividend yield of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd is 1.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528)?
The net margin of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd is −3.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd is −2.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd is 2.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528)?
The operating margin of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd is −6.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528)?
Revenue at Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd is growing −8.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528)?
Earnings per share at Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd are growing −77.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528) carry?
The net debt of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd is 537M TWD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 3, 2026