Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co (4528) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · TW · Market cap 1.3B TWD
Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 21, 2026, revised from 23.08 TWD to 24.32 TWD (+5.4%) since Jul 21, 2026. Share price −0.7% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 60% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (16.56 TWD). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (16.56 TWD to 32.09 TWD) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 15.20 TWD – 45.39 TWD · fair‑value band 16.56 TWD – 32.09 TWD · the 15.20 TWD price screens below the 24.32 TWD fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
Analysis
Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co (4528) currently trades at 15.20 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 24.32 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co generated revenue of 1.6B TWD at a net margin of -2.0%. Revenue declined 5.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -1.4%. Net debt stands at 537M TWD. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 16.56 TWD (bear case) to 32.09 TWD (bull case); at 15.20 TWD, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -44% fair-value upside, at 60%, 4528 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (21.39 TWD) versus Dividend Discount (1.67 TWD). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of various forged products in Taiwan. Its forged products include hardware, bicycle, motorbike, automobile, and track vehicle parts, as well as industrial engineering vehicle components and other products.
Full company description
Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of various forged products in Taiwan. Its forged products include hardware, bicycle, motorbike, automobile, and track vehicle parts, as well as industrial engineering vehicle components and other products. The company provides auto parts comprising driving element of front wheel, and C.V. joint of front wheel; yoke cross; mandril, rear axis, core axis of the generator, and air conditioning belt pulley; cross; bearing cup, piston, and housing; pinion, gear wheel, core shaft, and output input shaft; bevel gear; magnetic pole and driving gear; transmission bearing spang, transmission joint, and gears; big-sized parts; transmission parts; flang outer race; ammonia can; and aluminum alloy forging parts. It also offers assorted hardware parts, including impactors, saddles, pneumatic tooling, tone hole parts, disc knife, and rod couplings, as well as parts of sports goods, which include cranks, high-pressure joints, high-tension bolts/nuts, alloy bearing forgings, and tube forgings. In addition, the company provides motorcycle parts, such as gear shafts, gear blanks, start gears, transmission shafts, and ammonia cans for auto air-conditioners; starting gear and clutch gear forged work products; shaft and axle parts; and clutches, tube yokes, and chain gears. Further, it provides rail parts, such as tie plates, as well as bicycle parts, such as gear wheels. The company was formerly known as Hsieh Hsing Iron Factory and changed its name to Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co., Ltd. in 1980. Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co., Ltd. was founded in 1971 and is based in Taichung, Taiwan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co reported revenue of 1.6B TWD in FY2025 versus 2.5B TWD in FY2021, a compound −11.1%/yr. Reported net income was −25.7M TWD in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Auto Parts · 642 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hyundai Mobis Co 012330 | 482,000 KRW | 678,420 KRW | +41% |
| Magna International Inc MGAN | 1,122 MXN | 1,172 MXN | +4% |
| Samvardhana Motherson International Limited MOTHERSON | ₹144.17 | ₹80.63 | -44% |
| Bosch Limited BOSCHLTD | ₹41,110 | ₹14,004 | -66% |
| Bharat Forge Limited BHARATFORG | ₹2,117 | ₹441.74 | -79% |
| Uno Minda Limited UNOMINDA | ₹1,158 | ₹426.57 | -63% |
| Schaeffler India Limited SCHAEFFLER | ₹4,135 | ₹1,412 | -66% |
| Hankook Tire & Technology Co 161390 | 73,600 KRW | 196,479 KRW | +167% |
| MRF Limited MRF | ₹131,025 | ₹125,849 | -4% |
| Sona BLW Precision Forgings Limited SONACOMS | ₹792.00 | ₹207.06 | -74% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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