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Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd TWD 24.00, price TWD 14.95, upside +60.5%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Cyclical · TW · ISIN TW0004528005

CH Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd

4528 · TWO

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value 24.00 TWD · Strongly undervalued (+61%)
!Quality 53/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −6.9 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -2.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·1.34% dividend yield
!Trails peers (4/11)
!Narrow moat 24/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on dividend: 27 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

41.73 TWD 14.80 TWD Fair Value 24.00 TWD Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 14.80 TWD – 41.73 TWD · fair‑value band 16.35 TWD – 31.66 TWD · the 14.95 TWD price screens below the 24.00 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of various forged products in Taiwan. Its forged products include hardware, bicycle, motorbike, automobile, and track vehicle parts, as well as industrial engineering vehicle components and other products.

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Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of various forged products in Taiwan. Its forged products include hardware, bicycle, motorbike, automobile, and track vehicle parts, as well as industrial engineering vehicle components and other products. The company provides auto parts comprising driving element of front wheel, and C.V. joint of front wheel; yoke cross; mandril, rear axis, core axis of the generator, and air conditioning belt pulley; cross; bearing cup, piston, and housing; pinion, gear wheel, core shaft, and output input shaft; bevel gear; magnetic pole and driving gear; transmission bearing spang, transmission joint, and gears; big-sized parts; transmission parts; flang outer race; ammonia can; and aluminum alloy forging parts. It also offers assorted hardware parts, including impactors, saddles, pneumatic tooling, tone hole parts, disc knife, and rod couplings, as well as parts of sports goods, which include cranks, high-pressure joints, high-tension bolts/nuts, alloy bearing forgings, and tube forgings. In addition, the company provides motorcycle parts, such as gear shafts, gear blanks, start gears, transmission shafts, and ammonia cans for auto air-conditioners; starting gear and clutch gear forged work products; shaft and axle parts; and clutches, tube yokes, and chain gears. Further, it provides rail parts, such as tie plates, as well as bicycle parts, such as gear wheels. The company was formerly known as Hsieh Hsing Iron Factory and changed its name to Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co., Ltd. in 1980. Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co., Ltd. was founded in 1971 and is based in Taichung, Taiwan.

Stock analysis

Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528) currently trades at 14.95 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 24.00 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 37.7% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 26.95 TWD per share, and 8 of the 16 models we run sit above the 14.95 TWD price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 2.65 TWD, and 8 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: 16.35 TWD (bear) to 31.66 TWD (bull), the price of 14.95 TWD sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd reported revenue of 1.6B TWD in FY2025 versus 2.5B TWD in FY2021, a compound −11.1%/yr. Reported net income was −25.7M TWD in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 1.3B TWD (≈ $39.5M) · P/S ratio 0.83 · EPS (TTM) −0.3100 TWD · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin −1.6% · Return on equity −1.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.0% · Operating margin −3.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 61%, 4528 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 16.35 TWD Fair Value 24.00 TWD Bull 31.66 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF 26.67 TWD 35.72 TWD 51.96 TWD 81
Growth DCF 27.71 TWD 36.43 TWD 50.87 TWD 79
Owner Earnings 20.25 TWD 26.95 TWD 38.97 TWD 77
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 26.67 TWD 35.72 TWD 51.96 TWD 81
Owner Earnings 20.25 TWD 26.95 TWD 38.97 TWD 77
5Y Revenue Exit 12.00 TWD 12.83 TWD 13.95 TWD 74
5Y EBITDA Exit 23.17 TWD 32.15 TWD 44.05 TWD 76
10Y Revenue Exit 17.77 TWD 18.91 TWD 19.78 TWD 68
10Y EBITDA Exit 24.41 TWD 30.59 TWD 37.05 TWD 70
Earnings-Based
EPV 2.11 TWD 2.14 TWD 2.16 TWD 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 1.76 TWD 1.91 TWD 2.15 TWD 69
DDM Multi-Stage 1.76 TWD 2.17 TWD 2.74 TWD 67
Multiples
EV/EBIT 2.47 TWD 2.65 TWD 2.83 TWD 66
EV/EBITDA 24.03 TWD 31.39 TWD 38.76 TWD 67
EV/Revenue 2.29 TWD 2.45 TWD 2.60 TWD 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 13.28 TWD 17.80 TWD 26.56 TWD 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 27.71 TWD 36.43 TWD 50.87 TWD 79
Rev-Margin DCF 12.00 TWD 13.42 TWD 15.57 TWD 74
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder 2.11 TWD 2.14 TWD 2.16 TWD 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35

Profitability 14
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 39
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 70
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 50
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 87
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 19
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 2
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 65
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 23/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.4% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
12.3% (2020) → 0.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−7.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.1% a year for the price.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 692 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 53 · Above median
Fair Value upside +60% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.21× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 0.03× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 0.2× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 21
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)90 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)27 · sector 38

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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AutoZone, Inc AZO $2,843 $2,368 −17%
Hyundai Mobis Co 012330 367,500 KRW 631,641 KRW +72%
Fuyao Glass Industry Group 600660 ¥53.77 ¥75.79 +41%
Magna International Inc MGA $63.73 $68.17 +7%
Samvardhana Motherson International Limited MOTHERSON ₹164.40 ₹96.97 −41%
Ningbo Tuopu Group 601689 ¥45.71 ¥28.28 −38%
Bosch Limited BOSCHLTD ₹47,955 ₹25,325 −47%
Bharat Forge Limited BHARATFORG ₹2,004 ₹407.35 −80%
Huizhou Desay SV Automotive Co 002920 ¥84.71 ¥68.21 −19%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4528

Frequently asked questions

Is Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 24.00 TWD versus a price of 14.95 TWD, about +61% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 4528?
Our model-based fair value for Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd is 24.00 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 14.95 TWD.
What is the quality score of 4528?
Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 24.00 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario 16.35 TWD, optimistic scenario 31.66 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 24.00 TWD, about +61% upside versus a price of 14.95 TWD (undervalued). Cautious scenario 16.35 TWD, optimistic scenario 31.66 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528)?
Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.6B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.34% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -7.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -6.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4528 use?
Our models discount Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.22, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd that is -7.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd grew -6.9 % a year. The price currently implies -7.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (-7.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.95 %: that much free cash flow Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd it is 24.00 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 14.95 TWD. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 4528 trades below its calculated fair value: price 14.95 TWD, fair value 24.00 TWD, a gap of about +61% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4528?
No. The price is what the market pays today (14.95 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (24.00 TWD). For Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd the two are 9.05 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd worth?
The market values Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd at about 1.3B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 14.95 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 24.00 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4528?
Our models span a range for Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd: cautious scenario 16.35 TWD, base 24.00 TWD, optimistic 31.66 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 14.95 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −1.4%, debt of 0.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4528 from its 52-week high?
Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd trades at 14.95 TWD, about 30% below its 52-week high of 21.40 TWD and 1% above the low of 14.80 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 24.00 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 14.95 TWD, calculated fair value 24.00 TWD (+61%), Quality Score 53/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4528 calculated?
We run Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 24.00 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd currently trades 61 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 14.95 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 24.00 TWD, about +61% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (16.35 TWD). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (16.35 TWD to 31.66 TWD) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528)?
The market capitalisation of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd is 1.3B TWD (≈ $39.5M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd is 0.83 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528)?
Earnings per share at Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd are −0.3100 TWD. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528)?
The dividend yield of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd is 1.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528)?
The net margin of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd is −1.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd is −1.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd is 2.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528)?
The operating margin of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd is −3.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528)?
Revenue at Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd is growing −5.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528)?
Earnings per share at Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd are growing −77.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd (4528) carry?
The net debt of Chian Hsing Forging Industrial Co Ltd is 537M TWD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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