Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. (4537) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. stock TWD 16.37, price TWD 158, upside -89.6%, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?Yes
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 18.74 TWD – 199.43 TWD · fair‑value band 12.39 TWD – 20.46 TWD · the 158.00 TWD price screens above the 16.37 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.
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Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells machinery and automation equipment in Taiwan. The company designs and produces cutting-edge machinery, automation systems, and high-precision OEM components.
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It also provides tube / pipe benders and tube bending machines, such as CNC auto pipe bender, NC bender, double head bender, rolling bender, end forming machines, and special customized pipe benders; bicycle manufacture equipment, which include tube preparation, fork preparations, fork processing and assembling, frame processing and assembling , rim making, parts making and wheel assembling, complete bike assembling, test machines, handlebar production, handlebar auto production line, and other products.
In addition, the company offers auto welding machines, such as laser, TIG, MIG, and CO2 welding types; and auto cutting machine include tube cutting machines.
Additionally, it provides robotic welding cell, robotic handling cell, and robotic 3D laser cutting machines; customized industrial equipment solutions, including robotic systems, laser welding and cutting machines, tube bending and end forming machines, and complete bicycle production lines; turnkey solutions for bicycle production equipment; and metal processing services.
Further, the company designs and develops intelligent welding robots, polishing robots, 3D laser cutting robots, laser welding robots, and transporting robots. Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. was founded in 1978 and is based in Taichung, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. (4537) currently trades at 158.00 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 16.37 TWD, 89.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 23.18 TWD per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the 158.00 TWD price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 3.55 TWD, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 12.39 TWD (bear) to 20.46 TWD (bull), the price of 158.00 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. reported revenue of 1.9B TWD in FY2025 versus 2.0B TWD in FY2021, a compound −1.0%/yr. Reported net income was 61.5M TWD in FY2025, compounding −9.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 12.5B TWD (≈ $383M) Small · P/E ratio 59.0 · P/S ratio 5.71 · EPS (TTM) 2.68 TWD · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 9.7% · Return on equity 15.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 36 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 338% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −90%, 4537 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (3.55 TWD to 83.03 TWD). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear12.39 TWDFair Value 16.37 TWDBull20.46 TWD
Price 158.00 TWD · Upside -89.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.79 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.5%
’19
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’21
’22
’23
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−22.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−23.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 2%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+66.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +64.1% a year for the price.
Compare Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 810 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside−89.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)15.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets1.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)9.7% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)−0.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)21.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.40× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)59.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B8.51× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)5.71× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow188.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA41.4× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 32
PAST (return on equity)63· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)80· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)6· sector 28
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. (4537) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 26, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 16.37 TWD versus a price of 158.00 TWD, about −90% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 4537?
Our model-based fair value for Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. is 16.37 TWD (as of Oct 26, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 158.00 TWD.
What is the quality score of 4537?
Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. (4537)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 16.37 TWD (as of Oct 26, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 12.39 TWD, optimistic scenario 20.46 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 16.37 TWD, about −90% upside versus a price of 158.00 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 12.39 TWD, optimistic scenario 20.46 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. (4537)?
Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.2B TWD (latest available figure, as of Oct 26, 2026).
Does Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. pay a dividend?
Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of 0.32% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 26, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. (4537)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by +66.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -4.1 % per year. As of Oct 26, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4537 use?
Our models discount Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. at 13.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.58, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. that is +66.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. (4537) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. grew -4.1 % a year. The price currently implies +66.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. (4537) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. (+66.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. (4537)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.53 %: that much free cash flow Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. (4537)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. it is 16.37 TWD per share (as of Oct 26, 2026), against a price of 158.00 TWD. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 26, 2026, 4537 trades above its calculated fair value: price 158.00 TWD, fair value 16.37 TWD, a gap of about −90% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4537?
No. The price is what the market pays today (158.00 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (16.37 TWD). For Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. the two are 141.63 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. worth?
The market values Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. at about 12.5B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Oct 26, 2026). Per share that is 158.00 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 16.37 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4537?
Our models span a range for Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd.: cautious scenario 12.39 TWD, base 16.37 TWD, optimistic 20.46 TWD per share (as of Oct 26, 2026, price 158.00 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4537?
Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 59.0 (as of Oct 26, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 16.37 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 8.5, P/S 5.7, EV/EBITDA 41.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. (4537)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. (as of Oct 26, 2026): return on equity 15.7%, debt of 0.40 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4537 from its 52-week high?
Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. trades at 158.00 TWD, about 21% below its 52-week high of 199.43 TWD and 338% above the low of 36.10 TWD (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 16.37 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 26, 2026: price 158.00 TWD, calculated fair value 16.37 TWD (−90%), Quality Score 62/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4537 calculated?
We run Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 16.37 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. (4537)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was 158.00 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 16.37 TWD, about −90% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (20.46 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. (4537)?
The market capitalisation of Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. is 12.5B TWD (≈ $383M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. (4537)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. is 5.71 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. (4537)?
Earnings per share at Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. are 2.68 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 59.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. (4537)?
The dividend yield of Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. is 0.3% (payout 18.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. (4537)?
The net margin of Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. is 9.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. (4537)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. is 15.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. (4537)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. (4537)?
The operating margin of Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. is −0.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. (4537)?
Revenue at Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. is growing +21.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. (4537)?
Earnings per share at Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. are growing −18.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. (4537) hold?
Shuz Tung Machinery Industrial Co., Ltd. holds more cash than debt, 68.4M TWD net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Oct 26, 2026