Mosa Industrial Corp (4564) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 8, 2026: fair value of Mosa Industrial Corp TWD 5.98, price TWD 15.90, upside -62.4%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 14.50 TWD – 51.93 TWD · fair‑value band 4.89 TWD – 6.97 TWD · the 15.90 TWD price screens above the 5.98 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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Mosa Industrial Corporation engages in research, development, manufacture, and sale of high-pressure gas cylinders and various high-pressure containers in Taiwan, Europe, the Americas, Asia, and internationally. It provides temperature control and energy saving, medical device, safe living, clean green energy, drone, and sport and leisure products.
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Mosa Industrial Corporation engages in research, development, manufacture, and sale of high-pressure gas cylinders and various high-pressure containers in Taiwan, Europe, the Americas, Asia, and internationally. It provides temperature control and energy saving, medical device, safe living, clean green energy, drone, and sport and leisure products. The company also offers MOSA Ubar, cream whippers, soda makers, tire inflators, and chargers. Mosa Industrial Corporation was founded in 1978 and is based in Yunlin, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Mosa Industrial Corp (4564) currently trades at 15.90 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 5.98 TWD, 62.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 11.85 TWD per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the 15.90 TWD price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 2.38 TWD, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 4.89 TWD (bear) to 6.97 TWD (bull), the price of 15.90 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Mosa Industrial Corp reported revenue of 1.1B TWD in FY2025 versus 2.5B TWD in FY2021, a compound −18.4%/yr. Reported net income was −421M TWD in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 3.7B TWD (≈ $116M) · P/S ratio 4.32 · EPS (TTM) −1.54 TWD · Net margin −38.2% · Return on equity −8.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.7% · Operating margin −52.2% · Revenue (TTM) 873M TWD.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 29% fair-value upside, at −62%, 4564 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 4.89 TWDFair Value 5.98 TWDBull 6.97 TWD
Price 15.90 TWD · Upside -62.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.23/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−16.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.1% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
19.8% (2020) → −34.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+31.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +29.6% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances · 307 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Mosa Industrial Corp (4564) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 5.98 TWD versus a price of 15.90 TWD, about −62% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 4564?
Our model-based fair value for Mosa Industrial Corp is 5.98 TWD (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 15.90 TWD.
What is the quality score of 4564?
Mosa Industrial Corp has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mosa Industrial Corp (4564)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 5.98 TWD (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario 4.89 TWD, optimistic scenario 6.97 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mosa Industrial Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 5.98 TWD, about −62% upside versus a price of 15.90 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 4.89 TWD, optimistic scenario 6.97 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mosa Industrial Corp (4564)?
Mosa Industrial Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 873M TWD (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mosa Industrial Corp (4564)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mosa Industrial Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +31.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -11.8 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4564 use?
Our models discount Mosa Industrial Corp at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.10, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mosa Industrial Corp that is +31.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mosa Industrial Corp (4564) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mosa Industrial Corp grew -11.8 % a year. The price currently implies +31.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mosa Industrial Corp (4564) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mosa Industrial Corp (+31.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mosa Industrial Corp (4564)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.39 %: that much free cash flow Mosa Industrial Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mosa Industrial Corp (4564)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mosa Industrial Corp it is 5.98 TWD per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of 15.90 TWD. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mosa Industrial Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, 4564 trades above its calculated fair value: price 15.90 TWD, fair value 5.98 TWD, a gap of about −62% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4564?
No. The price is what the market pays today (15.90 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (5.98 TWD). For Mosa Industrial Corp the two are 9.92 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mosa Industrial Corp worth?
The market values Mosa Industrial Corp at about 3.7B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is 15.90 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 5.98 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4564?
Our models span a range for Mosa Industrial Corp: cautious scenario 4.89 TWD, base 5.98 TWD, optimistic 6.97 TWD per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price 15.90 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mosa Industrial Corp (4564)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mosa Industrial Corp (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity −8.4%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4564 from its 52-week high?
Mosa Industrial Corp trades at 15.90 TWD, about 26% below its 52-week high of 21.60 TWD and 5% above the low of 15.15 TWD (as of Oct 8, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 5.98 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mosa Industrial Corp?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Midea Group, King Slide Works Co, Gree Electric Appliances, Inc, Haier Smart Home Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mosa Industrial Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price 15.90 TWD, calculated fair value 5.98 TWD (−62%), Quality Score 41/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4564 calculated?
We run Mosa Industrial Corp through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 5.98 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Mosa Industrial Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mosa Industrial Corp (4564)?
The closing price on Oct 8, 2026 was 15.90 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 5.98 TWD, about −62% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mosa Industrial Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (6.97 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Mosa Industrial Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Mosa Industrial Corp (4564)?
The market capitalisation of Mosa Industrial Corp is 3.7B TWD (≈ $116M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mosa Industrial Corp (4564)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mosa Industrial Corp is 4.32 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mosa Industrial Corp (4564)?
Earnings per share at Mosa Industrial Corp are −1.54 TWD. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Mosa Industrial Corp (4564)?
The net margin of Mosa Industrial Corp is −38.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mosa Industrial Corp (4564)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mosa Industrial Corp is −8.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mosa Industrial Corp (4564)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mosa Industrial Corp is −1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mosa Industrial Corp (4564)?
The operating margin of Mosa Industrial Corp is −52.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mosa Industrial Corp (4564)?
Revenue at Mosa Industrial Corp is growing −37.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −16.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mosa Industrial Corp (4564)?
Earnings per share at Mosa Industrial Corp are growing −96.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Mosa Industrial Corp (4564) carry?
The net debt of Mosa Industrial Corp is 1.5B TWD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 17.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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