Tons Lightology (4972) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 8, 2026: fair value of Tons Lightology TWD 7.26, price TWD 16.20, upside -55.2%, quality 33 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 16.10 TWD – 29.97 TWD · fair‑value band 6.70 TWD – 8.09 TWD · the 16.20 TWD price screens above the 7.26 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
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Tons Lightology Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and trades lighting equipment and lamps in Taiwan, rest of Asia, Europe, Oceania, and internationally.
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Tons Lightology Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and trades lighting equipment and lamps in Taiwan, rest of Asia, Europe, Oceania, and internationally. Its indoor lighting products include tracks and structures; luminaires for tracks; recessed, frameless, and adjustable downlights; assemblies; display spotlights; surface-mounted ceiling, pendant, wall, linear, task, and micro track lights. The company's outdoor lighting products comprise outdoor downlights, ceiling lights, wall lights, and accessories; in-ground lights; projectors; flood lights; and bollards. In addition, the company engages in the research, development, production, and sales of LED semiconductor application and other products. Its products are used for architectural, retail display, residential, entertainment, outdoor area and commercial/industrial lighting applications. Tons Lightology Inc. was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in New Taipei City, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Tons Lightology (4972) currently trades at 16.20 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 7.26 TWD, 55.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 17.24 TWD per share, and 1 of the 3 models we run sit above the 16.20 TWD price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 7.79 TWD, and 2 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 6.70 TWD (bear) to 8.09 TWD (bull), the price of 16.20 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Tons Lightology reported revenue of 933M TWD in FY2025 versus 1.1B TWD in FY2021, a compound −3.0%/yr. Reported net income was −104M TWD in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 913M TWD (≈ $28.6M) · P/S ratio 0.95 · EPS (TTM) −1.76 TWD · Dividend yield 5.0% · Net margin −11.2% · Return on equity −7.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.7% · Operating margin −12.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 29% fair-value upside, at −55%, 4972 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 6.70 TWDFair Value 7.26 TWDBull 8.09 TWD
Price 16.20 TWD · Upside -55.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.12/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−23.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
12.8% (2020) → −13.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances · 307 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tons Lightology Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4972
Frequently asked questions
Is Tons Lightology (4972) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 7.26 TWD versus a price of 16.20 TWD, about −55% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 4972?
Our model-based fair value for Tons Lightology is 7.26 TWD (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 16.20 TWD.
What is the quality score of 4972?
Tons Lightology has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tons Lightology (4972)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 7.26 TWD (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario 6.70 TWD, optimistic scenario 8.09 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tons Lightology stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 7.26 TWD, about −55% upside versus a price of 16.20 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 6.70 TWD, optimistic scenario 8.09 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tons Lightology (4972)?
Tons Lightology reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 958M TWD (latest available figure, as of Oct 4, 2026).
Does Tons Lightology pay a dividend?
Tons Lightology currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.03% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tons Lightology (4972)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tons Lightology it is 7.26 TWD per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of 16.20 TWD. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tons Lightology stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, 4972 trades above its calculated fair value: price 16.20 TWD, fair value 7.26 TWD, a gap of about −55% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4972?
No. The price is what the market pays today (16.20 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (7.26 TWD). For Tons Lightology the two are 8.94 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tons Lightology worth?
The market values Tons Lightology at about 913M TWD (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is 16.20 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 7.26 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4972?
Our models span a range for Tons Lightology: cautious scenario 6.70 TWD, base 7.26 TWD, optimistic 8.09 TWD per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price 16.20 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tons Lightology (4972)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tons Lightology (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity −7.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4972 from its 52-week high?
Tons Lightology trades at 16.20 TWD, about 13% below its 52-week high of 18.60 TWD and 1% above the low of 16.10 TWD (as of Oct 8, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 7.26 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tons Lightology?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Midea Group, King Slide Works Co, Gree Electric Appliances, Inc, Haier Smart Home Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tons Lightology stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price 16.20 TWD, calculated fair value 7.26 TWD (−55%), Quality Score 33/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4972 calculated?
We run Tons Lightology through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 7.26 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Tons Lightology itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tons Lightology (4972)?
The closing price on Oct 8, 2026 was 16.20 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 7.26 TWD, about −55% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tons Lightology right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (8.09 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Tons Lightology
How large is the market capitalisation of Tons Lightology (4972)?
The market capitalisation of Tons Lightology is 913M TWD (≈ $28.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tons Lightology (4972)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tons Lightology is 0.95 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tons Lightology (4972)?
Earnings per share at Tons Lightology are −1.76 TWD. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tons Lightology (4972)?
The dividend yield of Tons Lightology is 5.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tons Lightology (4972)?
The net margin of Tons Lightology is −11.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tons Lightology (4972)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tons Lightology is −7.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tons Lightology (4972)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tons Lightology is 1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tons Lightology (4972)?
The operating margin of Tons Lightology is −12.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tons Lightology (4972)?
Revenue at Tons Lightology is growing +13.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tons Lightology (4972)?
Earnings per share at Tons Lightology are growing −79.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Tons Lightology (4972) generate?
The free cash flow of Tons Lightology is −25.5M TWD (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Tons Lightology (4972) hold?
Tons Lightology holds more cash than debt, 232M TWD net (fiscal year 2023). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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