Tons Lightology (4972) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · TW · Market cap 939M TWD

Below-average quality, and trading another 160% above our fair value.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (7.05 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 15, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 16.35 TWD – 31.32 TWD · fair‑value band 5.97 TWD – 7.05 TWD · the 16.65 TWD price screens above the 6.40 TWD fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 15, 2026.

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Analysis

Tons Lightology (4972) currently trades at 16.65 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 6.40 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 61.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Over the trailing twelve months, Tons Lightology generated revenue of 924M TWD at a net margin of -12.2%. Revenue declined 3.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -7.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 232M TWD. Fundamentals as of Aug 15, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 5.97 TWD (bear case) to 7.05 TWD (bull case); at 16.65 TWD, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -1% fair-value upside, at -62%, 4972 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (17.24 TWD) versus Dividend Discount (6.82 TWD). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Tons Lightology Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and trades lighting equipment and lamps in Taiwan, rest of Asia, Europe, Oceania, and internationally.

Full company description

Tons Lightology Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and trades lighting equipment and lamps in Taiwan, rest of Asia, Europe, Oceania, and internationally. Its indoor lighting products include tracks and structures; luminaires for tracks; recessed, frameless, and adjustable downlights; assemblies; display spotlights; surface-mounted ceiling, pendant, wall, linear, task, and micro track lights. The company's outdoor lighting products comprise outdoor downlights, ceiling lights, wall lights, and accessories; in-ground lights; projectors; flood lights; and bollards. In addition, the company engages in the research, development, production, and sales of LED semiconductor application and other products. Its products are used for architectural, retail display, residential, entertainment, outdoor area and commercial/industrial lighting applications. Tons Lightology Inc. was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in New Taipei City, Taiwan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Tons Lightology reported revenue of 933M TWD in FY2025 versus 1.1B TWD in FY2021, a compound −3.0%/yr. Reported net income was −104M TWD in FY2025.

4972 screens 62% overvalued. Compare with Midea Group →

Peer Group

Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances · 323 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.