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HEG Limited (509631) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of HEG Limited ₹492, price ₹239, upside +105.6%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
HEG Limited
509631 · BSECheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.
✓Fair value ₹491.76 · Strongly undervalued (+105.6%)
!Quality 47/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.1 %/yr)
!Loss over the last twelve months · -10.3% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2025 5.3%
✓Low debt
!10.4% dividend yield · Pays more than it earns
!Narrow moat 19/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹78.66 – ₹739.30 · fair‑value band ₹306.29 – ₹719.74 · the ₹239.15 price screens below the ₹491.76 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
HEG Limited manufactures and sells graphite electrodes primarily for steel manufacturers in India. It operates through two segments, Graphite Electrodes and Power Generation.
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HEG Limited manufactures and sells graphite electrodes primarily for steel manufacturers in India. It operates through two segments, Graphite Electrodes and Power Generation. The company offers ultra-high power, high-power, and regular power grade graphite electrodes and nipples; carbon blocks; graphite specialties; and activated carbon fabric products for use in air-conditioner and air purifying filters, clean rooms, pollution control filters, anti-pollution masks, refrigerator deodorizers, and cigarette filters. It also operates two thermal power plants and a hydroelectric power facility with total power generation capacity of 76.5 MW. The company also exports its products to approximately 30 countries. HEG Limited was incorporated in 1972 and is based in Noida, India.
Stock analysis
HEG Limited (509631) currently trades at ₹239.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹491.76, implying the stock looks roughly 51.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ₹773.15 per share, and 23 of the 26 models we run sit above the ₹239.15 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ₹196.15, and 3 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹306.29 (bear) to ₹719.74 (bull), the price of ₹239.15 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
HEG Limited reported revenue of ₹21.6B in FY2025 versus ₹12.6B in FY2021, a compound +14.5%/yr. Reported net income was ₹1.2B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap ₹46.2B (≈ $479M) · P/E ratio 3.4 · P/S ratio 0.18 · EPS (TTM) ₹17.52 · Dividend yield 10.4% · Net margin 5.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.2% · Operating margin −27.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 68% below its 52-week high and 204% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at 106%, 509631 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹306.29
Fair Value ₹491.76
Bull ₹719.74
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
₹218.88
₹302.23
₹406.29
81
Growth DCF
₹219.18
₹291.05
₹375.28
79
Owner Earnings
₹292.79
₹404.95
₹544.97
77
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
₹218.88
₹302.23
₹406.29
81
Owner Earnings
₹292.79
₹404.95
₹544.97
77
5Y Revenue Exit
₹270.32
₹430.20
₹633.86
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
₹684.71
₹1,204
₹1,815
73
5Y P/E Exit
₹409.05
₹689.25
₹983.63
70
10Y Revenue Exit
₹236.94
₹362.82
₹530.60
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
₹470.22
₹821.57
₹1,299
66
10Y P/E Exit
₹319.84
₹516.41
₹758.29
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
₹202.71
₹631.35
₹839.73
65
Lynch FV
₹137.31
₹196.15
₹255.00
61
PEG = 1.0
₹137.31
₹196.15
₹255.00
57
EPV
₹233.51
₹260.92
₹283.17
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
₹157.46
₹263.74
₹342.32
68
DDM Multi-Stage
₹157.46
₹236.70
₹283.74
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
₹626.02
₹834.70
₹1,043
63
P/S Multiple
₹380.08
₹506.78
₹633.47
58
P/B Multiple
₹380.08
₹506.78
₹633.47
55
EV/EBIT
₹644.74
₹857.96
₹1,071
66
EV/EBITDA
₹1,186
₹1,580
₹1,974
67
EV/Revenue
₹328.45
₹467.04
₹605.64
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
₹576.98
₹773.15
₹1,154
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
₹219.18
₹291.05
₹375.28
79
Rev-Margin DCF
₹270.32
₹430.13
₹613.38
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
₹750.44
₹710.56
₹693.35
76
ROIC Compounder
₹233.51
₹260.92
₹283.17
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
₹504.02
₹720.03
₹936.03
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
47/100
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 14
Profitability
25
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
31
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
51
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
79
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
77
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
14
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
16
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
12
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
40
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.8% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
’14
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’16
’17
’18
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’20
’21
’22
’23
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−46.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−56.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)10.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−4% → 6%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 24.9%/yr over ~6Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Diversified Electronics” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Information Technology · 3553 stocks
Beats the sector median on 4/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its sector peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Information Technology median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Information Technology sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Indian Stocks
- Valuation of the India market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Diversified Electronics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Modison Metals Limited 506261 | ₹440.95 | ₹64.18 | −85% |
| SWITCHTE SWITCHTE | ₹137.60 | ₹185.14 | +35% |
| NVIDIA Corporation NVDA | $228.38 | $198.56 | −13% |
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | $512.90 | $564.19 | +10% |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company TSM | $459.20 | $505.12 | +10% |
| Broadcom Inc AVGO | $351.19 | $303.10 | −14% |
| Samsung Electronics Co 005930 | 276,000 KRW | 162,073 KRW | −41% |
| Micron Technology, Inc MU | $1,054 | $151.51 | −86% |
| Advanced Micro Devices, Inc AMD | $611.76 | $122.60 | −80% |
| SK hynix Inc 000660 | 1,833,000 KRW | 2,016,300 KRW | +10% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is HEG Limited (509631) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹491.76 versus a price of ₹239.15, about +106% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 509631?
Our model-based fair value for HEG Limited is ₹491.76 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹239.15.
What is the quality score of 509631?
HEG Limited has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HEG Limited (509631)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹491.76 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹306.29, optimistic scenario ₹719.74. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HEG Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹491.76, about +106% upside versus a price of ₹239.15 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ₹306.29, optimistic scenario ₹719.74. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HEG Limited (509631)?
HEG Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹15.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does HEG Limited pay a dividend?
HEG Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 10.44% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of HEG Limited (509631)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HEG Limited it is ₹491.76 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ₹239.15. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is HEG Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 509631 trades below its calculated fair value: price ₹239.15, fair value ₹491.76, a gap of about +106% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 509631?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹239.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹491.76). For HEG Limited the two are ₹252.61 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HEG Limited worth?
The market values HEG Limited at about ₹46.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ₹239.15; our models calculate a fair value of ₹491.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 509631?
Our models span a range for HEG Limited: cautious scenario ₹306.29, base ₹491.76, optimistic ₹719.74 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ₹239.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 509631?
HEG Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹491.76 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/S 0.0.
How far is 509631 from its 52-week high?
HEG Limited trades at ₹239.15, about 68% below its 52-week high of ₹739.30 and 204% above the low of ₹78.66 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹491.76 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HEG Limited?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Modison Metals Limited, SWITCHTE, NVIDIA Corporation, Microsoft Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HEG Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ₹239.15, calculated fair value ₹491.76 (+106%), Quality Score 47/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 509631 calculated?
We run HEG Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹491.76, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. HEG Limited currently trades 51 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HEG Limited (509631)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹239.15. Our model-based fair value is ₹491.76, about +106% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HEG Limited right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (₹306.29). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (₹306.29 to ₹719.74) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of HEG Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of HEG Limited (509631)?
The market capitalisation of HEG Limited is ₹46.2B (≈ $479M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of HEG Limited (509631)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HEG Limited is 0.18 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of HEG Limited (509631)?
Earnings per share at HEG Limited are ₹17.52 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of HEG Limited (509631)?
The dividend yield of HEG Limited is 10.4% (payout 143%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of HEG Limited (509631)?
The net margin of HEG Limited is 5.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HEG Limited (509631)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HEG Limited is 4.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of HEG Limited (509631)?
The operating margin of HEG Limited is −27.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HEG Limited (509631)?
Revenue at HEG Limited is growing −71.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at HEG Limited (509631)?
Earnings per share at HEG Limited are growing −94.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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