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Saudi Electricity Company (5110) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Saudi Electricity Company SAR 45.43, price SAR 15.62, upside +190.9%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Utilities · SA · ISIN SA0007879550

SE Broad data Sep 24, 2026

Saudi Electricity Company

5110 · SR

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value 45.43 SAR · Strongly undervalued (+191%)
!Quality 47/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +8.3 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 13.3% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
·4.48% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (8/13)
!Moderate moat 45/100
!Weak on past: 21 out of 100
!Weak on balance sheet: 2 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

25.65 SAR 11.25 SAR Fair Value 45.43 SAR Mar 2020 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 11.25 SAR – 25.65 SAR · fair‑value band 31.80 SAR – 66.17 SAR · the 15.62 SAR price screens below the 45.43 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Saudi Energy Company, together with its subsidiaries, generates, transmits, and distributes electricity in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It operates through Generation, Transmission, Distribution and Subscriber Services, and Others segments.

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Saudi Energy Company, together with its subsidiaries, generates, transmits, and distributes electricity in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It operates through Generation, Transmission, Distribution and Subscriber Services, and Others segments. The company engages in the construction, lease, management, and operation of electric and fiber optic networks to provide telecommunication services; electricity transmission activities; management of construction projects; development of detailed designs; purchase of materials; execution of projects in the energy sector; water purification and desalination; wireless telecommunication activities; management of computing facilities; preparation of data hosting sites on networks; development, management, lease, buy, and sale of land and real estate; and investment activities. In addition, it provides support services for the issuance of international bonds and sukuks, and wholesale services for infrastructures. It serves governmental, industrial, agricultural, commercial, and residential consumers. The company was formerly known as Saudi Electricity Company and change its name to Saudi Energy Company in March 2026. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is based in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Stock analysis

Saudi Electricity Company (5110) currently trades at 15.62 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 45.43 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 65.6% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 45.43 SAR per share, and 11 of the 16 models we run sit above the 15.62 SAR price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 5.64 SAR, and 5 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: 31.80 SAR (bear) to 66.17 SAR (bull), the price of 15.62 SAR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Saudi Electricity Company reported revenue of 102B SAR in FY2025 versus 69.3B SAR in FY2021, a compound +10.2%/yr. Reported net income was 13.0B SAR in FY2025, compounding −2.6%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 70.7B SAR (≈ $18.8B) · P/E ratio 13.6 · P/S ratio 1.72 · EPS (TTM) 1.15 SAR · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin 12.7% · Return on equity 5.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at 191%, 5110 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 31.80 SAR Fair Value 45.43 SAR Bull 66.17 SAR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.3292 SAR per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV n/a 5.64 SAR 11.28 SAR 68
ROIC Compounder n/a 5.64 SAR 11.28 SAR 68
Growth-Adj P/E 31.80 SAR 45.43 SAR 59.05 SAR 67
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 21.18 SAR 77.95 SAR 105.26 SAR 64
Lynch FV 18.64 SAR 26.63 SAR 34.61 SAR 61
PEG = 1.0 18.64 SAR 26.63 SAR 34.61 SAR 57
EPV n/a 5.64 SAR 11.28 SAR 68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 6.43 SAR 13.38 SAR 21.22 SAR 66
DDM Multi-Stage 6.43 SAR 11.28 SAR 14.04 SAR 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple 42.04 SAR 56.05 SAR 70.07 SAR 63
P/S Multiple 39.70 SAR 52.94 SAR 66.17 SAR 58
P/B Multiple 27.24 SAR 36.32 SAR 45.40 SAR 55
EV/EBIT 11.28 SAR 28.17 SAR 45.07 SAR 61
EV/EBITDA 35.09 SAR 59.92 SAR 84.75 SAR 65
EV/Revenue 1.59 SAR 19.16 SAR 36.73 SAR 47
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 10.09 SAR 13.52 SAR 20.18 SAR 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income 20.71 SAR 27.60 SAR 83.73 SAR 65
ROIC Compounder n/a 5.64 SAR 11.28 SAR 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 31.80 SAR 45.43 SAR 59.05 SAR 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62

Profitability 30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 66
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 6
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 50
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 92
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 52
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 47
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.4% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+38.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+33.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.34% vs 20%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 18%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 159 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 47 · Below median
Fair Value upside +191% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 13% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 14% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.97× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 13.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.84× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.68× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 5.6× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)47 · sector 32
PAST (return on equity)21 · sector 39
HEALTH (low debt)2 · sector 53
DIVIDEND (yield)90 · sector 70

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
NextEra Energy, Inc NEE $75.62 $29.97 −60%
The Southern Company SO $83.47 $58.74 −30%
Duke Energy Corporation DUK $114.17 $74.89 −34%
American Electric Power Company AEP $118.40 $100.09 −15%
Dominion Energy, Inc D $61.17 $37.67 −38%
Entergy Corporation ETR $99.23 $38.37 −61%
Xcel Energy Inc XEL $70.66 $54.92 −22%
Exelon Corporation EXC $40.69 $36.26 −11%
Consolidated Edison, Inc ED $102.61 $47.92 −53%
Public Service Enterprise Group PEG $67.31 $33.43 −50%

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Saudi Electricity Company · Fair Value
45.43 SAR +66%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Saudi Electricity Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/5110

Frequently asked questions

Is Saudi Electricity Company (5110) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 45.43 SAR versus a price of 15.62 SAR, about +191% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 5110?
Our model-based fair value for Saudi Electricity Company is 45.43 SAR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 15.62 SAR.
What is the quality score of 5110?
Saudi Electricity Company has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Saudi Electricity Company (5110)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 45.43 SAR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario 31.80 SAR, optimistic scenario 66.17 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Saudi Electricity Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 45.43 SAR, about +191% upside versus a price of 15.62 SAR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 31.80 SAR, optimistic scenario 66.17 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Saudi Electricity Company (5110)?
Saudi Electricity Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 104B SAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Saudi Electricity Company pay a dividend?
Saudi Electricity Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.48% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Saudi Electricity Company (5110)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Saudi Electricity Company it is 45.43 SAR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 15.62 SAR. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Saudi Electricity Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 5110 trades below its calculated fair value: price 15.62 SAR, fair value 45.43 SAR, a gap of about +191% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 5110?
No. The price is what the market pays today (15.62 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (45.43 SAR). For Saudi Electricity Company the two are 29.81 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Saudi Electricity Company worth?
The market values Saudi Electricity Company at about 70.7B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 15.62 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 45.43 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 5110?
Our models span a range for Saudi Electricity Company: cautious scenario 31.80 SAR, base 45.43 SAR, optimistic 66.17 SAR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 15.62 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 5110?
Saudi Electricity Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 45.43 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 5.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Saudi Electricity Company (5110)?
Balance-sheet figures for Saudi Electricity Company (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.4%, debt of 1.97 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 5110 from its 52-week high?
Saudi Electricity Company trades at 15.62 SAR, about 15% below its 52-week high of 18.37 SAR and 20% above the low of 12.97 SAR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 45.43 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Saudi Electricity Company?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, American Electric Power Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Saudi Electricity Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 15.62 SAR, calculated fair value 45.43 SAR (+191%), Quality Score 47/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 5110 calculated?
We run Saudi Electricity Company through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 45.43 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Saudi Electricity Company currently trades 191 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Saudi Electricity Company (5110)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 15.62 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 45.43 SAR, about +191% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Saudi Electricity Company right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (31.80 SAR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (31.80 SAR to 66.17 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Saudi Electricity Company (5110) come from?
Earnings per share at Saudi Electricity Company grew +19.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.3 %, EBIT margin +19.9 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −8.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Saudi Electricity Company

How large is the market capitalisation of Saudi Electricity Company (5110)?
The market capitalisation of Saudi Electricity Company is 70.7B SAR (≈ $18.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Saudi Electricity Company (5110)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Saudi Electricity Company is 1.72 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Saudi Electricity Company (5110)?
Earnings per share at Saudi Electricity Company are 1.15 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Saudi Electricity Company (5110)?
The dividend yield of Saudi Electricity Company is 4.5% (payout 60.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Saudi Electricity Company (5110)?
The net margin of Saudi Electricity Company is 12.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Saudi Electricity Company (5110)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Saudi Electricity Company is 5.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Saudi Electricity Company (5110)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Saudi Electricity Company is 3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Saudi Electricity Company (5110)?
The operating margin of Saudi Electricity Company is 14.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Saudi Electricity Company (5110)?
Revenue at Saudi Electricity Company is growing +9.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Saudi Electricity Company (5110)?
Earnings per share at Saudi Electricity Company are growing −35.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Saudi Electricity Company (5110) generate?
The free cash flow of Saudi Electricity Company is −43.1B SAR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Saudi Electricity Company (5110) carry?
The net debt of Saudi Electricity Company is 372B SAR (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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