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SPEL Semiconductor Limited (517166) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of SPEL Semiconductor Limited ₹18.29, price ₹125, upside -85.4%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
SPEL Semiconductor Limited
517166 · BSEWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value ₹18.29 · Strongly overvalued (−85.4%)
!Quality 50/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −17.0 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -0.5% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (0/9)
!Narrow moat 21/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹10.92 – ₹260.90 · fair‑value band ₹16.21 – ₹20.20 · the ₹125.10 price screens above the ₹18.29 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Company profile
SPEL Semiconductor Limited, a semiconductor assembly and test company, provides contract manufacturing services for semiconductor companies in India.
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SPEL Semiconductor Limited, a semiconductor assembly and test company, provides contract manufacturing services for semiconductor companies in India. The company offers turnkey solutions, including wafer sort, assembly, test, and drop-shipment services; and value added services, such as package design, failure analysis and full reliability test, test program development, and product characterization. It provides packaging solutions for semiconductors used in various applications, such as communications, consumer electronics, computing, industrial, and automotive. The company also offers its products to the integrated device manufacturers and fabless companies in the United States, Asia, and Europe. The company was incorporated in 1984 and is based in Chennai, India. SPEL Semiconductor Limited is a subsidiary of Natronix Semiconductor Technology Private Limited.
Stock analysis
SPEL Semiconductor Limited (517166) currently trades at ₹125.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹18.29, 85.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ₹40.58 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the ₹125.10 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at ₹4.46, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ₹16.21 (bear) to ₹20.20 (bull), the price of ₹125.10 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
SPEL Semiconductor Limited reported revenue of ₹62.8M in FY2026 versus ₹156M in FY2022, a compound −20.4%/yr. Reported net income was −₹238M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap ₹398M (≈ $4.1M) · P/S ratio 1.18 · EPS (TTM) ₹−0.9760 · Net margin −0.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −7.8% · Operating margin 4.4% · Revenue growth (YoY) −51.5% · Free cash flow ₹128M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −85%, 517166 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (₹0.4400 to ₹40.58). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ₹16.21
Fair Value ₹18.29
Bull ₹20.20
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
₹28.43
₹39.69
₹59.89
80
Growth DCF
₹29.73
₹40.58
₹58.55
79
5Y Revenue Exit
₹12.56
₹15.32
₹19.26
74
All 6 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
₹28.43
₹39.69
₹59.89
80
5Y Revenue Exit
₹12.56
₹15.32
₹19.26
74
10Y Revenue Exit
₹18.66
₹21.27
₹23.68
68
Multiples
EV/Revenue
₹2.42
₹4.46
₹6.50
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
₹0.3300
₹0.4400
₹0.6600
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
₹29.73
₹40.58
₹58.55
79
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
50/100
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Profitability
2
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
38
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
0
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
56
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
34
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
23
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
23/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−20.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−17.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−17.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −13.2% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−17.5%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−80.0% (2021) → −35.2% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+28.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +23.7% a year for the price.
Compare SPEL Semiconductor Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Semiconductor - Broad Line” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Information Technology · 3469 stocks
Beats the sector median on 0/8 measures
Overall it trails its sector peers.
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Information Technology sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Indian Stocks
- Valuation of the India market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Semiconductor - Broad Line stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ruttonsha International Rectifier Ltd 517035 | ₹187.90 | ₹255.85 | +36% |
| NVIDIA Corporation NVDA | $228.38 | $198.56 | −13% |
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | $512.90 | $564.19 | +10% |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company TSM | $459.20 | $505.12 | +10% |
| Broadcom Inc AVGO | $351.19 | $303.10 | −14% |
| Samsung Electronics Co 005930 | 276,000 KRW | 162,073 KRW | −41% |
| Micron Technology, Inc MU | $1,054 | $151.51 | −86% |
| Advanced Micro Devices, Inc AMD | $611.76 | $122.60 | −80% |
| SK hynix Inc 000660 | 1,833,000 KRW | 2,016,300 KRW | +10% |
| Intel Corporation INTC | $115.93 | $33.67 | −71% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is SPEL Semiconductor Limited (517166) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹18.29 versus a price of ₹125.10, about −85% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 517166?
Our model-based fair value for SPEL Semiconductor Limited is ₹18.29 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹125.10.
What is the quality score of 517166?
SPEL Semiconductor Limited has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SPEL Semiconductor Limited (517166)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹18.29 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹16.21, optimistic scenario ₹20.20. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SPEL Semiconductor Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹18.29, about −85% upside versus a price of ₹125.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹16.21, optimistic scenario ₹20.20. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into SPEL Semiconductor Limited (517166)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SPEL Semiconductor Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +28.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -17.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 517166 use?
Our models discount SPEL Semiconductor Limited at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.41, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SPEL Semiconductor Limited that is +28.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SPEL Semiconductor Limited (517166) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SPEL Semiconductor Limited grew -17.0 % a year. The price currently implies +28.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SPEL Semiconductor Limited (517166) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +13.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SPEL Semiconductor Limited (+28.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SPEL Semiconductor Limited (517166)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.23 %: that much free cash flow SPEL Semiconductor Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SPEL Semiconductor Limited (517166)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SPEL Semiconductor Limited it is ₹18.29 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ₹125.10. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SPEL Semiconductor Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 517166 trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹125.10, fair value ₹18.29, a gap of about −85% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 517166?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹125.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹18.29). For SPEL Semiconductor Limited the two are ₹106.81 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SPEL Semiconductor Limited worth?
The market values SPEL Semiconductor Limited at about ₹398M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ₹125.10; our models calculate a fair value of ₹18.29 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 517166?
Our models span a range for SPEL Semiconductor Limited: cautious scenario ₹16.21, base ₹18.29, optimistic ₹20.20 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ₹125.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of SPEL Semiconductor Limited (517166)?
Balance-sheet figures for SPEL Semiconductor Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): debt of 3.56 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 517166 from its 52-week high?
SPEL Semiconductor Limited trades at ₹125.10, about 42% below its 52-week high of ₹215.60 and 2% above the low of ₹122.90 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹18.29 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SPEL Semiconductor Limited?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Ruttonsha International Rectifier Ltd, NVIDIA Corporation, Microsoft Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SPEL Semiconductor Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ₹125.10, calculated fair value ₹18.29 (−85%), Quality Score 50/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 517166 calculated?
We run SPEL Semiconductor Limited through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹18.29, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. SPEL Semiconductor Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SPEL Semiconductor Limited (517166)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was ₹125.10. Our model-based fair value is ₹18.29, about −85% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SPEL Semiconductor Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹20.20). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of SPEL Semiconductor Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of SPEL Semiconductor Limited (517166)?
The market capitalisation of SPEL Semiconductor Limited is ₹398M (≈ $4.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SPEL Semiconductor Limited (517166)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SPEL Semiconductor Limited is 1.18 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SPEL Semiconductor Limited (517166)?
Earnings per share at SPEL Semiconductor Limited are ₹−0.9760. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of SPEL Semiconductor Limited (517166)?
The net margin of SPEL Semiconductor Limited is −0.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SPEL Semiconductor Limited (517166)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SPEL Semiconductor Limited is −7.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SPEL Semiconductor Limited (517166)?
The operating margin of SPEL Semiconductor Limited is 4.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SPEL Semiconductor Limited (517166)?
Revenue at SPEL Semiconductor Limited is growing −51.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −17.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does SPEL Semiconductor Limited (517166) carry?
The net debt of SPEL Semiconductor Limited is ₹209M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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