MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd (5202) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 8, 2026: fair value of MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd MYR 1.81, price MYR 0.63, upside +189.6%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.5900 MYR – 3.61 MYR · fair‑value band 1.29 MYR – 2.24 MYR · the 0.6250 MYR price screens below the 1.81 MYR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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MSM Malaysia Holdings Berhad, a refined sugar producer, produces, refines, markets, and sells refined sugar products in Malaysia. It provides coarse grain, caster, fine granulated, soft brown, icing, cube, and quality cup pack sugar products.
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MSM Malaysia Holdings Berhad, a refined sugar producer, produces, refines, markets, and sells refined sugar products in Malaysia. It provides coarse grain, caster, fine granulated, soft brown, icing, cube, and quality cup pack sugar products. The company also offers sugar premix, fine grain sugar, liquid sugar, molasses, fine syrup, and sucralose and stevia mix. It sells its products through traders, wholesalers, and distributors to companies in the beverage and confectionery industries, hotels, restaurants, food outlets, distilleries, and household consumers, as well as producers of ethanol, animal feed, and yeast. In addition, it exports its products in Vietnam, Myanmar, China, the Philippines, Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand, Bangladesh, Taiwan, New Zealand, and Indonesia. The company Berhad was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. MSM Malaysia Holdings Berhad operates as a subsidiary of FGV Holdings Berhad.
Stock analysis
MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd (5202) currently trades at 0.6250 MYR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1.81 MYR, implying the stock looks roughly 65.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 1.83 MYR per share, and 7 of the 7 models we run sit above the 0.6250 MYR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 1.05 MYR, and 0 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 1.29 MYR (bear) to 2.24 MYR (bull), the price of 0.6250 MYR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd reported revenue of 3.1B MYR in FY2025 versus 2.3B MYR in FY2021, a compound +8.2%/yr. Reported net income was −397M MYR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 439M MYR (≈ $108M) · P/S ratio 0.16 · EPS (TTM) −0.5200 MYR · Net margin −12.8% · Return on equity −28.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.2% · Operating margin 7.0% · Revenue (TTM) 2.7B MYR.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at 190%, 5202 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 1.29 MYRFair Value 1.81 MYRBull 2.24 MYR
Price 0.6250 MYR · Upside +189.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−12.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.0% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.1% (2020) → −10.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Malaysia: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.4% a year for the price.
Compare MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Confectioners · 81 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside+189.6% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets1.3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−13.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)7.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−25.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.05× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/5202
Frequently asked questions
Is MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd (5202) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1.81 MYR versus a price of 0.6250 MYR, about +190% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 5202?
Our model-based fair value for MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd is 1.81 MYR (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 0.6250 MYR.
What is the quality score of 5202?
MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd (5202)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 1.81 MYR (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario 1.29 MYR, optimistic scenario 2.24 MYR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 1.81 MYR, about +190% upside versus a price of 0.6250 MYR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 1.29 MYR, optimistic scenario 2.24 MYR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd (5202)?
MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.7B MYR (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd (5202)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd would have to grow free cash flow by +4.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.2 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 5202 use?
Our models discount MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd at 12.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.10, country premium for Malaysia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd that is +4.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd (5202) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd grew +7.2 % a year. The price currently implies +4.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd (5202) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd (+4.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd (5202)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 22.93 %: that much free cash flow MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd (5202)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd it is 1.81 MYR per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of 0.6250 MYR. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, 5202 trades below its calculated fair value: price 0.6250 MYR, fair value 1.81 MYR, a gap of about +190% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 5202?
No. The price is what the market pays today (0.6250 MYR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (1.81 MYR). For MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd the two are 1.19 MYR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd worth?
The market values MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd at about 439M MYR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is 0.6250 MYR; our models calculate a fair value of 1.81 MYR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 5202?
Our models span a range for MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd: cautious scenario 1.29 MYR, base 1.81 MYR, optimistic 2.24 MYR per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price 0.6250 MYR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd (5202)?
Balance-sheet figures for MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity −28.5%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 5202 from its 52-week high?
MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd trades at 0.6250 MYR, about 43% below its 52-week high of 1.09 MYR and 6% above the low of 0.5900 MYR (as of Oct 8, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 1.81 MYR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Mondelez International, Inc, The Hershey Company, Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG, Barry Callebaut AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price 0.6250 MYR, calculated fair value 1.81 MYR (+190%), Quality Score 46/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 5202 calculated?
We run MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 1.81 MYR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd currently trades 65 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd (5202)?
The closing price on Oct 8, 2026 was 0.6250 MYR. Our model-based fair value is 1.81 MYR, about +190% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (1.29 MYR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd
How large is the market capitalisation of MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd (5202)?
The market capitalisation of MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd is 439M MYR (≈ $108M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd (5202)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd is 0.16 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd (5202)?
Earnings per share at MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd are −0.5200 MYR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd (5202)?
The net margin of MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd is −12.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd (5202)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd is −28.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd (5202)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd is −2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd (5202)?
The operating margin of MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd is 7.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd (5202)?
Revenue at MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd is growing −25.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd (5202)?
Earnings per share at MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd are growing −91.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd (5202) carry?
The net debt of MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd is 849M MYR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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