MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd (5202) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · MY · Market cap 443M MYR
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026
From 7 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +22.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and trading another 14% above our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (0.1300 MYR to 1.21 MYR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.5900 MYR – 3.61 MYR · fair‑value band 0.1300 MYR – 1.21 MYR · the 0.7400 MYR price screens above the 0.6500 MYR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
Analysis
MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd (5202) currently trades at 0.7400 MYR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.6500 MYR, implying the stock looks roughly 12.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd generated revenue of 2.9B MYR at a net margin of -14.5%. Revenue declined 26.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -32.5%. Net debt stands at 849M MYR. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 0.1300 MYR (bear case) to 1.21 MYR (bull case); at 0.7400 MYR, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -43% fair-value upside, at -12%, 5202 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 7 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (1.80 MYR) versus Asset-Based (1.05 MYR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
MSM Malaysia Holdings Berhad, a refined sugar producer, produces, refines, markets, and sells refined sugar products in Malaysia. It provides coarse grain, caster, fine granulated, soft brown, icing, cube, and quality cup pack sugar products.
Full company description
MSM Malaysia Holdings Berhad, a refined sugar producer, produces, refines, markets, and sells refined sugar products in Malaysia. It provides coarse grain, caster, fine granulated, soft brown, icing, cube, and quality cup pack sugar products. The company also offers sugar premix, fine grain sugar, liquid sugar, molasses, fine syrup, and sucralose and stevia mix. It sells its products through traders, wholesalers, and distributors to companies in the beverage and confectionery industries, hotels, restaurants, food outlets, distilleries, and household consumers, as well as producers of ethanol, animal feed, and yeast. In addition, it exports its products in Vietnam, Myanmar, China, the Philippines, Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand, Bangladesh, Taiwan, New Zealand, and Indonesia. The company Berhad was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. MSM Malaysia Holdings Berhad operates as a subsidiary of FGV Holdings Berhad.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd reported revenue of 3.1B MYR in FY2025 versus 2.3B MYR in FY2021, a compound +8.2%/yr. Reported net income was −397M MYR in FY2025.
5202 screens 12% overvalued. Compare with Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG →
Peer Group
Confectioners · 80 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Confectioners stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG LISN | CHF 93,500 | CHF 9,567 | -90% |
| Mondelez International, Inc MDLZ | $62.66 | $27.36 | -56% |
| The Hershey Company HSY | $184.23 | $91.25 | -50% |
| Barry Callebaut AG BARN | CHF 1,136 | CHF 711.91 | -37% |
| ORION Corp 271560 | 124,600 KRW | 203,315 KRW | +63% |
| Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc TROLB | $39.00 | $22.21 | -43% |
| Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings 000833 | ¥20.48 | ¥9.09 | -56% |
| Cloetta AB CLAB | kr 54.85 | kr 59.12 | +8% |
| Balrampur Chini Mills Limited BALRAMCHIN | ₹652.15 | ₹318.59 | -51% |
| PT Yupi Indo Jelly Gum Tbk YUPI | 1,295 IDR | 1,140 IDR | -12% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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