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Nelcast Limited (532864) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Nelcast Limited ₹66.44, price ₹121, upside -44.9%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Industrials · IN · ISIN INE189I01024

NL Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Nelcast Limited

532864 · BSE

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value ₹66.44 · Strongly overvalued (−44.9%)
!Quality 50/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +17.2 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt
!Narrow moat 30/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

₹175.26 ₹51.44 Fair Value ₹66.44 May 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ₹51.44 – ₹175.26 · fair‑value band ₹30.14 – ₹94.36 · the ₹120.60 price screens above the ₹66.44 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Nelcast Limited manufactures and sells ductile and grey iron castings in India and internationally.

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Nelcast Limited manufactures and sells ductile and grey iron castings in India and internationally. The company provides commercial components, including bogie suspension brackets, conventional suspension/engine/steering/cab mounting brackets, rear and forward differential carriers, flanged and plain half products, wheel hubs, bearing caps, brake drums, and brake disc rotors; and tractor/farm components comprising hydraulic lift covers, and front engine support, as well as axle, four-wheel drive front axle, transmission clutch, and center/differential housing products. It also offers off highway/army components consisting of transmission and differential cases, converter and axle housing, and planetary carriers; railway products, such as brake discs and base plates for ballastless track systems; SUV/car components that include case bodies and caps, and drive heads; and powertrain components comprising gearbox and flywheel housing, and exhaust manifold products. The company serves automotive, tractor, construction, mining, railways, and general engineering sectors. Nelcast Limited was incorporated in 1982 and is based in Chennai, India.

Stock analysis

Nelcast Limited (532864) currently trades at ₹120.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹66.44, 44.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ₹88.22 per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the ₹120.60 price.

Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at ₹9.40, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: ₹30.14 (bear) to ₹94.36 (bull), the price of ₹120.60 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Nelcast Limited reported revenue of ₹12.5B in FY2025 versus ₹6.1B in FY2021, a compound +19.6%/yr. Reported net income was ₹373M in FY2025, compounding +42.5%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Key figures

Market cap ₹5.1B (≈ $53.3M) · P/E ratio 24.0 · P/S ratio 0.72 · EPS (TTM) ₹2.38 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 3.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.6% · Operating margin 2.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −57% fair-value upside, at −45%, 532864 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ₹30.14 Fair Value ₹66.44 Bull ₹94.36
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹2.38 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF ₹4.22 ₹10.16 ₹18.21 76
Residual Income ₹45.88 ₹45.31 ₹48.09 76
EPV ₹39.77 ₹45.46 ₹50.07 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ₹4.22 ₹10.16 ₹18.21 76
5Y Revenue Exit ₹34.64 ₹71.75 ₹121.91 69
5Y EBITDA Exit ₹49.05 ₹100.20 ₹163.40 72
5Y P/E Exit ₹32.37 ₹67.27 ₹106.16 68
10Y Revenue Exit ₹19.40 ₹46.76 ₹87.92 62
10Y EBITDA Exit ₹29.04 ₹64.16 ₹116.39 64
10Y P/E Exit ₹19.74 ₹44.02 ₹77.11 60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ₹29.15 ₹116.18 ₹157.89 64
Lynch FV ₹28.83 ₹41.19 ₹53.55 61
PEG = 1.0 ₹28.83 ₹41.19 ₹53.55 57
EPV ₹39.77 ₹45.46 ₹50.07 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ₹2.79 ₹4.67 ₹6.06 68
DDM Multi-Stage ₹2.79 ₹4.43 ₹5.02 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple ₹67.51 ₹90.01 ₹112.52 63
P/S Multiple ₹54.65 ₹72.87 ₹91.09 58
P/B Multiple ₹54.65 ₹72.87 ₹91.09 55
EV/EBIT ₹86.38 ₹117.71 ₹149.04 66
EV/EBITDA ₹92.03 ₹125.25 ₹158.46 67
EV/Revenue ₹59.47 ₹88.22 ₹116.97 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ₹31.78 ₹42.58 ₹63.55 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ₹4.10 ₹9.40 ₹16.15 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ₹45.88 ₹45.31 ₹48.09 76
ROIC Compounder ₹39.77 ₹45.46 ₹50.07 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ₹50.81 ₹72.58 ₹94.36 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 50/100

Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32

Profitability 44
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 33
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 46
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 46
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 66
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 39
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 29
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 31
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 70/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.7% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+1.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 5%

532864 screens overvalued: fair value 45% below the price. Compare with ATI Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 252 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 50 · Above median
Fair Value upside −0.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets 0.0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 4.6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 2.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −65.6% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.12× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 24.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.93× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.15× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 19.0× · Pricier than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Commercial Metals Company CMC $65.73 $13.01 −80%
China International Marine Containers (Group) Co 000039 ¥8.66 ¥11.28 +30%
SINOMACH HEAVY EQUIPMENT GROUP CO.,LTD researches, 601399 ¥3.15 ¥1.35 −57%
JL Mag Rare-Earth Co 300748 ¥25.29 ¥5.04 −80%
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Nelcast Limited · Fair Value
₹66.44 −45%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nelcast Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/532864

Frequently asked questions

Is Nelcast Limited (532864) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹66.44 versus a price of ₹120.60, about −45% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 532864?
Our model-based fair value for Nelcast Limited is ₹66.44 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹120.60.
What is the quality score of 532864?
Nelcast Limited has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nelcast Limited (532864)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹66.44 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹30.14, optimistic scenario ₹94.36. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nelcast Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹66.44, about −45% upside versus a price of ₹120.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹30.14, optimistic scenario ₹94.36. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nelcast Limited (532864)?
Nelcast Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹4.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Nelcast Limited pay a dividend?
Nelcast Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.68% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Nelcast Limited (532864)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nelcast Limited it is ₹66.44 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ₹120.60. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nelcast Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 532864 trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹120.60, fair value ₹66.44, a gap of about −45% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 532864?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹120.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹66.44). For Nelcast Limited the two are ₹54.16 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nelcast Limited worth?
The market values Nelcast Limited at about ₹5.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ₹120.60; our models calculate a fair value of ₹66.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 532864?
Our models span a range for Nelcast Limited: cautious scenario ₹30.14, base ₹66.44, optimistic ₹94.36 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ₹120.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 532864?
Nelcast Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹66.44 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 19.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nelcast Limited (532864)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nelcast Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 532864 from its 52-week high?
Nelcast Limited trades at ₹120.60, about 24% below its 52-week high of ₹159.13 and 38% above the low of ₹87.57 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹66.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nelcast Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value ATI Inc, Carpenter Technology Corporation, Mueller Industries, Inc, Bharat Forge Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nelcast Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ₹120.60, calculated fair value ₹66.44 (−45%), Quality Score 50/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 532864 calculated?
We run Nelcast Limited through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹66.44, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Nelcast Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nelcast Limited (532864)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹120.60. Our model-based fair value is ₹66.44, about −45% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nelcast Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹94.36). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (₹30.14 to ₹94.36). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Nelcast Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of Nelcast Limited (532864)?
The market capitalisation of Nelcast Limited is ₹5.1B (≈ $53.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nelcast Limited (532864)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nelcast Limited is 0.72 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nelcast Limited (532864)?
Earnings per share at Nelcast Limited are ₹2.38 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nelcast Limited (532864)?
The dividend yield of Nelcast Limited is 0.7% (payout 34.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nelcast Limited (532864)?
The net margin of Nelcast Limited is 3.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nelcast Limited (532864)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nelcast Limited is 4.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nelcast Limited (532864)?
The operating margin of Nelcast Limited is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nelcast Limited (532864)?
Revenue at Nelcast Limited is growing −65.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
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