Petronas Dagangan Bhd (5681) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Petronas Dagangan Bhd MYR 15.49, price MYR 20.00, upside -22.6%, quality 76 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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PETRONAS Dagangan Berhad, together with its subsidiaries, engages in retailing and marketing of downstream oil and gas products in Malaysia. It operates through Retail, Commercial, and Convenience segments.
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PETRONAS Dagangan Berhad, together with its subsidiaries, engages in retailing and marketing of downstream oil and gas products in Malaysia. It operates through Retail, Commercial, and Convenience segments. The company offers fuels and cooking gas products; lubricants, such as passenger car motor oil, motorcycle oil, heavy duty oil, and automotive functional fluid; PETRONAS AutoExpert, a professional vehicle servicing workshop; used cooking oil services; and card services. It also provides gift cards; Setel, a mobile app; payment solutions; and aviation fueling services. In addition, the company is involved in the operation of Café Mesra, which serves handcrafted coffee-on-the-go, pastries, and savories; Makan@Mesra, which offers ready-to-eat meals, snacks, and beverages; and Segar@Mesra, which provides produce and essentials. Further, it engages in the operating, maintaining, and managing aircraft fueling system; and managing oil terminals. The company was founded in 1981 and is based in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. PETRONAS Dagangan Berhad is a subsidiary of Petroliam Nasional Berhad (PETRONAS).
Stock analysis
Petronas Dagangan Bhd (5681) currently trades at 20.00 MYR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 15.49 MYR, implying the stock looks roughly 29.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 32.81 MYR per share, and 11 of the 25 models we run sit above the 20.00 MYR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 4.02 MYR, and 14 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 12.11 MYR (bear) to 19.36 MYR (bull), the price of 20.00 MYR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Petronas Dagangan Bhd reported revenue of 38.3B MYR in FY2025 versus 22.5B MYR in FY2021, a compound +14.2%/yr. Reported net income was 1.1B MYR in FY2025, compounding +20.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 19.9B MYR (≈ $4.9B) · P/E ratio 18.2 · P/S ratio 0.52 · EPS (TTM) 1.10 MYR · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin 2.9% · Return on equity 19.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −61% fair-value upside, at −23%, 5681 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 12.11 MYRFair Value 15.49 MYRBull 19.36 MYR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.1463 MYR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.87/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.3% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in MYR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in MYR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+20.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16% vs 3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−20.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Malaysia: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −21.7% a year for the price and +0.5% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 110 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score76 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−23% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)19% · Top 25%
Return on assets8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth23% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.5% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Petronas Dagangan Bhd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/5681
Frequently asked questions
Is Petronas Dagangan Bhd (5681) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 15.49 MYR versus a price of 20.00 MYR, about −23% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 5681?
Our model-based fair value for Petronas Dagangan Bhd is 15.49 MYR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 20.00 MYR.
What is the quality score of 5681?
Petronas Dagangan Bhd has a Quality Score of 76/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Petronas Dagangan Bhd (5681)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 15.49 MYR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 12.11 MYR, optimistic scenario 19.36 MYR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Petronas Dagangan Bhd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 15.49 MYR, about −23% upside versus a price of 20.00 MYR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 12.11 MYR, optimistic scenario 19.36 MYR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Petronas Dagangan Bhd (5681)?
Petronas Dagangan Bhd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 40.3B MYR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Petronas Dagangan Bhd pay a dividend?
Petronas Dagangan Bhd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.50% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Petronas Dagangan Bhd (5681)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Petronas Dagangan Bhd would have to grow free cash flow by -20.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 5681 use?
Our models discount Petronas Dagangan Bhd at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.14, country premium for Malaysia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Petronas Dagangan Bhd that is -20.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Petronas Dagangan Bhd (5681) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Petronas Dagangan Bhd grew +15.4 % a year. The price currently implies -20.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Petronas Dagangan Bhd (5681) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Petronas Dagangan Bhd (-20.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Petronas Dagangan Bhd (5681)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 19.53 %: that much free cash flow Petronas Dagangan Bhd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Petronas Dagangan Bhd (5681)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Petronas Dagangan Bhd it is 15.49 MYR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 20.00 MYR. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Petronas Dagangan Bhd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 5681 trades above its calculated fair value: price 20.00 MYR, fair value 15.49 MYR, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 5681?
No. The price is what the market pays today (20.00 MYR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (15.49 MYR). For Petronas Dagangan Bhd the two are 4.51 MYR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Petronas Dagangan Bhd worth?
The market values Petronas Dagangan Bhd at about 19.9B MYR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 20.00 MYR; our models calculate a fair value of 15.49 MYR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 5681?
Our models span a range for Petronas Dagangan Bhd: cautious scenario 12.11 MYR, base 15.49 MYR, optimistic 19.36 MYR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 20.00 MYR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 5681?
Petronas Dagangan Bhd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 15.49 MYR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.1, P/B 0.8, P/S 0.1.
What is the PEG ratio of 5681?
The PEG ratio of Petronas Dagangan Bhd is 2.13 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Petronas Dagangan Bhd (5681)?
Balance-sheet figures for Petronas Dagangan Bhd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 19.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 76/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 5681 from its 52-week high?
Petronas Dagangan Bhd trades at 20.00 MYR, about 12% below its 52-week high of 22.65 MYR and 16% above the low of 17.17 MYR (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 15.49 MYR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Petronas Dagangan Bhd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Phillips 66, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Petronas Dagangan Bhd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 20.00 MYR, calculated fair value 15.49 MYR (−23%), Quality Score 76/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 5681 calculated?
We run Petronas Dagangan Bhd through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 15.49 MYR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Petronas Dagangan Bhd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Petronas Dagangan Bhd (5681)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 20.00 MYR. Our model-based fair value is 15.49 MYR, about −23% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Petronas Dagangan Bhd right now?
A high-quality business (quality 76/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (19.36 MYR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Where does the earnings growth of Petronas Dagangan Bhd (5681) come from?
Earnings per share at Petronas Dagangan Bhd grew +3.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.1 %, EBIT margin −0.7 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Petronas Dagangan Bhd
How large is the market capitalisation of Petronas Dagangan Bhd (5681)?
The market capitalisation of Petronas Dagangan Bhd is 19.9B MYR (≈ $4.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Petronas Dagangan Bhd (5681)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Petronas Dagangan Bhd is 0.52 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Petronas Dagangan Bhd (5681)?
Earnings per share at Petronas Dagangan Bhd are 1.10 MYR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Petronas Dagangan Bhd (5681)?
The dividend yield of Petronas Dagangan Bhd is 4.5% (payout 81.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Petronas Dagangan Bhd (5681)?
The net margin of Petronas Dagangan Bhd is 2.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Petronas Dagangan Bhd (5681)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Petronas Dagangan Bhd is 19.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Petronas Dagangan Bhd (5681)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Petronas Dagangan Bhd is 10.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Petronas Dagangan Bhd (5681)?
The operating margin of Petronas Dagangan Bhd is 3.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Petronas Dagangan Bhd (5681)?
Revenue at Petronas Dagangan Bhd is growing +22.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Petronas Dagangan Bhd (5681)?
Earnings per share at Petronas Dagangan Bhd are growing −3.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Petronas Dagangan Bhd (5681) hold?
Petronas Dagangan Bhd holds more cash than debt, 4.5B MYR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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