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Snowflake Inc (5Q5) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Snowflake Inc €68.26, price €302, upside -77.4%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Thin data
Sep 29, 2026
Snowflake Inc
5Q5 · XETRAStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value €68.26 · Strongly overvalued (−77.4%)
✓Quality 62/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +31.4 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -23.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 14/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
10‑month range €104.20 – €314.50 · fair‑value band €37.12 – €104.99 · the €301.50 price screens above the €68.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Snowflake Inc. provides a cloud-based data platform for various organizations in the United States and internationally.
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Snowflake Inc. provides a cloud-based data platform for various organizations in the United States and internationally. The company's platform includes artificial intelligence (AI) Data Cloud, which enables customers to consolidate data into a single source of truth to drive meaningful business insights, build data applications, and share data and data products, as well as applies AI for solving business problems. It serves financial services, advertising, media and entertainment, retail and consumer goods, healthcare and life sciences, manufacturing, technology, telecom, travel and hospitality, and government and defense industries, as well as the public sector. the company has a collaboration with OpenAI, L.L.C. for the development of AI solutions for joint enterprise customers that deliver tangible return on investment. The company was formerly known as Snowflake Computing, Inc. and changed its name to Snowflake Inc. in April 2019. Snowflake Inc. was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Menlo Park, California.
Stock analysis
Snowflake Inc (5Q5) currently trades at €301.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €68.26, 77.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €77.68 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the €301.50 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at €38.63, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: €37.12 (bear) to €104.99 (bull), the price of €301.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Snowflake Inc reported revenue of $4.7B in FY2026 versus $1.2B in FY2022, a compound +40.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.3B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap €104B · P/S ratio 15.8 · EPS (TTM) €−3.09 · Net margin −28.4% · Return on equity −54.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −13.4% · Operating margin −22.2% · Revenue (TTM) $5.0B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −77%, 5Q5 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (€3.30 to €91.90). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear €37.12
Fair Value €68.26
Bull €104.99
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
€49.88
€77.68
€166.21
72
Growth DCF
€47.00
€91.90
€165.48
72
5Y Revenue Exit
€35.76
€59.67
€109.63
67
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
€49.88
€77.68
€166.21
72
5Y Revenue Exit
€35.76
€59.67
€109.63
67
10Y Revenue Exit
€39.30
€81.83
€108.00
63
Multiples
EV/Revenue
€27.46
€38.63
€49.80
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
€2.47
€3.30
€4.93
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
€47.00
€91.90
€165.48
72
Rev-Margin DCF
€38.95
€68.08
€128.47
66
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
62/100
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68
Profitability
19
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
76
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
93
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
65
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
90
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
17
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
93
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
86
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
56
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+29.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.4%
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−58.6% (2022) → −30.6% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+42.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+22.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +38.8% a year for the price and +19.8% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2027 (sales)+30.3%
Forecast 2028 (sales)+25.2%
Projected 2029 (sales)+22.3%
Projected 2030 (sales)+19.4%
Projected 2031 (sales)+16.5%
5Q5 screens overvalued: fair value 77% below the price. Compare with SAP SE →
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: German Stocks
- Valuation of the Germany market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAP | €186.74 | €172.46 | −8% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $229.57 | $342.73 | +49% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | $144.01 | $64.36 | −55% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $134.01 | $147.41 | +10% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $69.36 | $103.69 | +49% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $261.80 | $150.01 | −43% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $239.94 | $454.04 | +89% |
| Datadog, Inc DDOG | $268.70 | $32.52 | −88% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $326.70 | $225.48 | −31% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $268.03 | $459.14 | +71% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Snowflake Inc (5Q5) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €68.26 versus a price of €301.50, about −77% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 5Q5?
Our model-based fair value for Snowflake Inc is €68.26 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €301.50.
What is the quality score of 5Q5?
Snowflake Inc has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Snowflake Inc (5Q5)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €68.26 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario €37.12, optimistic scenario €104.99. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Snowflake Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €68.26, about −77% upside versus a price of €301.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €37.12, optimistic scenario €104.99. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Snowflake Inc (5Q5)?
Snowflake Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Snowflake Inc (5Q5)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Snowflake Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +42.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +40.0 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 5Q5 use?
Our models discount Snowflake Inc at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.35, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Snowflake Inc that is +42.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Snowflake Inc (5Q5) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Snowflake Inc grew +40.0 % a year. The price currently implies +42.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Snowflake Inc (5Q5) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +15.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Snowflake Inc (+42.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Snowflake Inc (5Q5)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.96 %: that much free cash flow Snowflake Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Snowflake Inc (5Q5)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Snowflake Inc it is €68.26 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of €301.50. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Snowflake Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, 5Q5 trades above its calculated fair value: price €301.50, fair value €68.26, a gap of about −77% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 5Q5?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€301.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€68.26). For Snowflake Inc the two are €233.24 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Snowflake Inc worth?
The market values Snowflake Inc at about €104B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is €301.50; our models calculate a fair value of €68.26 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 5Q5?
Our models span a range for Snowflake Inc: cautious scenario €37.12, base €68.26, optimistic €104.99 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price €301.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
Which stocks are comparable to Snowflake Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Snowflake Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price €301.50, calculated fair value €68.26 (−77%), Quality Score 62/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 5Q5 calculated?
We run Snowflake Inc through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €68.26, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Snowflake Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Snowflake Inc (5Q5)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €301.50. Our model-based fair value is €68.26, about −77% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Snowflake Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€104.99). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (€37.12 to €104.99). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Snowflake Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Snowflake Inc (5Q5)?
The market capitalisation of Snowflake Inc is €104B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Snowflake Inc (5Q5)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Snowflake Inc is 15.8 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Snowflake Inc (5Q5)?
Earnings per share at Snowflake Inc are €−3.09. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Snowflake Inc (5Q5)?
The net margin of Snowflake Inc is −28.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Snowflake Inc (5Q5)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Snowflake Inc is −54.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Snowflake Inc (5Q5)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Snowflake Inc is −13.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Snowflake Inc (5Q5)?
The operating margin of Snowflake Inc is −22.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Snowflake Inc (5Q5)?
Revenue at Snowflake Inc is growing +33.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +31.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
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