SAP SE (SAP) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · DE · Market cap €161B

A solid business, but screening 29% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€156.89). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €76.70 – €273.15 · fair‑value band €89.01 – €156.89 · the €177.96 price screens above the €125.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

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Analysis

SAP SE (SAP) currently trades at €177.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €125.51, implying the stock looks roughly 29.5% overvalued today. We read business quality at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, SAP SE generated revenue of €37.3B at a net margin of 19.6%. Revenue grew 6.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of €149M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €89.01 (bear case) to €156.89 (bull case); at €177.96, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at -29%, SAP screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models (€132.75) versus Asset-Based (€25.68). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

SAP SE, together with its subsidiaries, provides enterprise application and business solutions worldwide. It offers SAP Business AI; SAP S/4HANA that provides software capabilities for finance, risk and project management, procurement, manufacturing, supply chain and asset management, and research and development; SAP SuccessFactors solutions for human …

Full company description

SAP SE, together with its subsidiaries, provides enterprise application and business solutions worldwide. It offers SAP Business AI; SAP S/4HANA that provides software capabilities for finance, risk and project management, procurement, manufacturing, supply chain and asset management, and research and development; SAP SuccessFactors solutions for human resources, including HR, time, payroll, talent and employee experience management, and analytics and planning; and spend management solutions that covers direct and indirect spend, travel and expense, and external workforce management. The company also provides SAP customer experience solutions; SAP Business Technology platform that enables customers and partners to build, integrate, and automate applications; and SAP Business Network, a business-to-business collaboration platform that helps digitalize key business processes across the supply chain and enables communication between trading partners. In addition, it offers SAP Signavio to help customers to discover, analyze, and understand business process operations; industry solutions that provide customers and partners with industry-specific solutions; and SAP LeanIX to visualize enterprise architecture, assess interdependencies and the potential impact of IT modernization, and manage the transition toward the target landscape. Further, the company provides WalkMe to execute workflows; SAP Enable Now, which offers e-learning content embedded in SAP workflows; Taulia solutions for working capital management; and sustainability solutions and services. Additionally, it provides services and support solutions. The company has a strategic collaboration with Fresenius SE & Co. KGaA and Avelios Medical GmbH for the development of a cloud-native, hospital information system that enables digitalization of clinical and administrative processes with AI integration. SAP SE was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Walldorf, Germany.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

SAP SE reported revenue of €36.8B in FY2025 versus €27.0B in FY2021, a compound +8.1%/yr. Reported net income was €7.3B in FY2025, compounding +8.7%/yr from FY2021.

SAP screens 29% overvalued. Compare with Shopify Inc →

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

• SAP (XTRA:SAP) Stock Looks Below Fair Value Despite AI Hopes Yahoo Finance · Jul 8, 2026
• This is Why SAP SE (SAP) is A Top AI Stock on Wall Street Radar amid Reorganization Drive Yahoo Finance · Jul 8, 2026
• Palantir Expands SAP Transformation Push With SNP Partnership Yahoo Finance · Jul 8, 2026

Peer Group

Software - Application · 706 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 30/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.