Guangzhou Development Group (600098) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · CN · Market cap 22.3B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 6, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 6, 2026, revised from ¥11.25 to ¥7.05 (−37.4%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price +4.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 12% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Our model range runs from ¥4.94 (bear) to ¥8.81 (bull), base ¥7.05. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 43/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.91 – ¥9.05 · fair‑value band ¥4.94 – ¥8.81 · the ¥6.27 price screens below the ¥7.05 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 6, 2026.
Analysis
Guangzhou Development Group (600098) currently trades at ¥6.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.05, implying the stock looks roughly 12.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Guangzhou Development Group generated revenue of 51.7B CNY at a net margin of 4.7%. Revenue grew 7.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.5%. Net debt stands at 26.4B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 6, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥4.94 (bear case) to ¥8.81 (bull case); at ¥6.27, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at 12%, 600098 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥11.25) versus Economic Profit (¥0.8600). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Guangzhou Development Group Incorporated, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the integrated energy business in China and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Coal-Fired Power Generation and Heating; Natural Gas Power and Heat; New Energy and Energy Storage; Gas; Energy Logistics; and Others.
Full company description
Guangzhou Development Group Incorporated, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the integrated energy business in China and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Coal-Fired Power Generation and Heating; Natural Gas Power and Heat; New Energy and Energy Storage; Gas; Energy Logistics; and Others. It is involved in the development, investment, construction, and operation management of energy projects; new energy power generation, energy storage, and electricity sale and services; and upstream gas source investment and procurement, midstream transportation and receiving, and downstream distribution and sales, as well as urban gas pipeline construction. The company also engages in the investment and operation of coal, oil, ports, shipping, and hazardous chemical storage, as well as leasing oil tanks and supporting facilities; and provision of energy finance services. In addition, it is involved in asset management; aerated concrete; management services; photovoltaic and wind power electricity generation; sewage treatment; port loading and unloading; warehousing; gas meter production; sale of coal; agricultural product sale; coastal cargo transportation; and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is based in Guangzhou, China. Guangzhou Development Group Incorporated operates as a subsidiary of Guangzhou Industrial Investment Holdings Group.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Guangzhou Development Group reported revenue of ¥50.9B in FY2025 versus ¥38.0B in FY2021, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥2.3B in FY2025, compounding +91.6%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Thermal Coal · 101 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 6, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Shenhua Energy Company 601088 | ¥42.65 | ¥34.97 | -18% |
| Adani Enterprises Limited ADANIENT | ₹3,157 | ₹901.17 | -71% |
| Shaanxi Coal Industry Company 601225 | ¥24.30 | ¥23.90 | -2% |
| Yankuang Energy Group 600188 | ¥20.23 | ¥13.24 | -35% |
| Coal India Limited COALINDIA | ₹427.65 | ₹464.01 | +9% |
| China Coal Energy Company 601898 | ¥12.54 | ¥13.97 | +11% |
| Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation 002128 | ¥25.13 | ¥21.99 | -12% |
| Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co 601699 | ¥16.26 | ¥7.20 | -56% |
| PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk, ADRO | 2,490 IDR | 3,220 IDR | +29% |
| PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk, through its subsidiaries, CUAN | 630.00 IDR | 360.72 IDR | -43% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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