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Guangzhou Development Group Inc (600098) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Guangzhou Development Group Inc ¥6.11, price ¥6.18, upside -1.2%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? No
Good quality? No
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Energy · CN · ISIN CNE000000SB6

GD Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Guangzhou Development Group Inc

600098 · SHG

Low PriorityFair Value upside is limited and quality is weak.

·Fair value ¥6.11 · Fairly valued (−1%)

!Quality 43/100

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +9.9 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 4.7% net margin (TTM)

!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow

·5.66% dividend yield

!Mixed vs. peers (7/13)

!Narrow moat 30/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

26 models, one by oneBear ¥4.58 to bull ¥7.64 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 43/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥4.91 – ¥9.05 · fair‑value band ¥4.58 – ¥7.64 · the ¥6.18 price screens above the ¥6.11 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Guangzhou Development Group Incorporated, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the integrated energy business in China and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Coal-Fired Power Generation and Heating; Natural Gas Power and Heat; New Energy and Energy Storage; Gas; Energy Logistics; and Others. It is involved in the development, investment, construction, and operation management of energy projects; new energy power generation, energy storage, and electricity sale and services; and upstream gas source investment and procurement, midstream transportation and receiving, and downstream distribution and sales, as well as urban gas pipeline construction. The company also engages in the investment and operation of coal, oil, ports, shipping, and hazardous chemical storage, as well as leasing oil tanks and supporting facilities; and provision of energy finance services. In addition, it is involved in asset management; aerated concrete; management services; photovoltaic and wind power electricity generation; sewage treatment; port loading and unloading; warehousing; gas meter production; sale of coal; agricultural product sale; coastal cargo transportation; and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is based in Guangzhou, China. Guangzhou Development Group Incorporated operates as a subsidiary of Guangzhou Industrial Investment Holdings Group.

Stock analysis

Guangzhou Development Group Inc (600098) currently trades at ¥6.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥6.11, implying the stock looks roughly 1.2% fairly valued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥11.25 per share, and 11 of the 16 models we run sit above the ¥6.18 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥5.20, and 5 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: ¥4.58 (bear) to ¥7.64 (bull), the price of ¥6.18 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Guangzhou Development Group Inc reported revenue of 50.9B CNY in FY2025 versus 38.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was 2.3B CNY in FY2025, compounding +91.6%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Key figures

Market cap 21.7B CNY (≈ $3.2B) · P/E ratio 9.1 · P/S ratio 0.41 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.6800 · Dividend yield 5.7% · Net margin 4.6% · Return on equity 8.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −1%, 600098 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥4.58 Fair Value ¥6.11 Bull ¥7.64

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.2414 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

Residual Income ¥6.52 ¥7.04 ¥8.00 76

EPV n/a ¥0.5000 ¥1.27 68

ROIC Compounder n/a ¥0.5000 ¥1.27 68

All 16 models by family

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd ¥4.50 ¥20.18 ¥27.66 64

Lynch FV ¥5.26 ¥7.51 ¥9.76 61

PEG = 1.0 ¥5.26 ¥7.51 ¥9.76 57

EPV n/a ¥0.5000 ¥1.27 68

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM ¥5.58 ¥11.11 ¥16.82 67

DDM Multi-Stage ¥5.58 ¥9.60 ¥11.73 67

Multiples

P/E Multiple ¥8.93 ¥11.91 ¥14.89 63

P/S Multiple ¥8.44 ¥11.25 ¥14.06 58

P/B Multiple ¥8.44 ¥11.25 ¥14.06 55

EV/EBIT ¥2.33 ¥5.10 ¥7.88 62

EV/EBITDA ¥5.29 ¥9.05 ¥12.81 65

EV/Revenue ¥0.7300 ¥3.62 ¥6.51 48

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) ¥3.88 ¥5.20 ¥7.76 54

Economic Profit

Residual Income ¥6.52 ¥7.04 ¥8.00 76

ROIC Compounder n/a ¥0.5000 ¥1.27 68

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E ¥7.88 ¥11.25 ¥14.63 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43

Profitability 30

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 45

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 39

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 25

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 56

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 85

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 30

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 16

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 80

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 49/100

The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Revenue growth 1 year

+5.3%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+2.0%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+9.9%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.2% a year

Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+10.3%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.

+15.7%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year+10.0%

Dividend (yield on the price)5.7%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.18% vs 4%, picking up

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 5%

Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Thermal Coal · 100 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures

A mixed picture versus its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 43 · Below median

Fair Value upside −1% · Above median

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Above median

Return on assets 2% · Below median

Net margin (TTM) 5% · Below median

Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Below median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth 8% · Above median

Dividend yield (TTM) 5.7% · Top 25%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.95× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.1× · Cheapest 25%

P/B 0.80× · Cheaper than median

P/S (TTM) 0.42× · Cheaper than median

EV/EBITDA 8.8× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)32 · sector 15

FUTURE (revenue growth)39 · sector 4

PAST (return on equity)34 · sector 23

HEALTH (low debt)53 · sector 92

DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 55

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Coal Oil & gas

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10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Shaanxi Coal Industry Company 601225	¥25.68	¥28.25	+10%
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Coal India Limited COALINDIA	₹424.55	₹464.01	+9%
China Coal Energy Company 601898	¥14.23	¥14.62	+3%
PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk, DSSA	1,070 IDR	355.01 IDR	−67%
Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation 002128	¥28.24	¥20.48	−27%
Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co 601699	¥15.38	¥9.97	−35%

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Guangzhou Development Group Inc · Fair Value
¥6.11 −1%Fair Value
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<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600098" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Guangzhou Development Group Inc · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">¥6.11</b> <span style="color:#e0816f;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">−1%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guangzhou Development Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600098

Frequently asked questions

Is Guangzhou Development Group Inc (600098) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥6.11 versus a price of ¥6.18, about −1% upside (fairly valued).

What is the fair value of 600098?

Our model-based fair value for Guangzhou Development Group Inc is ¥6.11 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥6.18.

What is the quality score of 600098?

Guangzhou Development Group Inc has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Guangzhou Development Group Inc (600098)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥6.11 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥4.58, optimistic scenario ¥7.64. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Guangzhou Development Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at ¥6.11, about −1% upside versus a price of ¥6.18 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario ¥4.58, optimistic scenario ¥7.64. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Guangzhou Development Group Inc (600098)?

Guangzhou Development Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 51.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).

Does Guangzhou Development Group Inc pay a dividend?

Guangzhou Development Group Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.66% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of Guangzhou Development Group Inc (600098)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guangzhou Development Group Inc it is ¥6.11 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥6.18. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Guangzhou Development Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 24, 2026, 600098 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥6.18, fair value ¥6.11, a gap of about −1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of 600098?

No. The price is what the market pays today (¥6.18); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥6.11). For Guangzhou Development Group Inc the two are ¥0.0720 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Guangzhou Development Group Inc worth?

The market values Guangzhou Development Group Inc at about 21.7B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥6.18; our models calculate a fair value of ¥6.11 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600098?

Our models span a range for Guangzhou Development Group Inc: cautious scenario ¥4.58, base ¥6.11, optimistic ¥7.64 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥6.18). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of 600098?

Guangzhou Development Group Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥6.11 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 8.8.

How solid is the balance sheet of Guangzhou Development Group Inc (600098)?

Balance-sheet figures for Guangzhou Development Group Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.5%, debt of 0.95 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is 600098 from its 52-week high?

Guangzhou Development Group Inc trades at ¥6.18, about 26% below its 52-week high of ¥8.36 and 5% above the low of ¥5.91 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥6.11 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Guangzhou Development Group Inc?

From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, PT Bayan Resources Tbk.,, Adani Enterprises Limited, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Guangzhou Development Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥6.18, calculated fair value ¥6.11 (−1%), Quality Score 43/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of 600098 calculated?

We run Guangzhou Development Group Inc through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥6.11, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Guangzhou Development Group Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Guangzhou Development Group Inc (600098)?

The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ¥6.18. Our model-based fair value is ¥6.11, about −1% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Guangzhou Development Group Inc right now?

The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Where does the earnings growth of Guangzhou Development Group Inc (600098) come from?

Earnings per share at Guangzhou Development Group Inc grew +0.4 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.7 %, EBIT margin −10.0 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Guangzhou Development Group Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Guangzhou Development Group Inc (600098)?

The market capitalisation of Guangzhou Development Group Inc is 21.7B CNY (≈ $3.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Guangzhou Development Group Inc (600098)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Guangzhou Development Group Inc is 0.41 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Guangzhou Development Group Inc (600098)?

Earnings per share at Guangzhou Development Group Inc are ¥0.6800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of Guangzhou Development Group Inc (600098)?

The dividend yield of Guangzhou Development Group Inc is 5.7% (payout 51.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of Guangzhou Development Group Inc (600098)?

The net margin of Guangzhou Development Group Inc is 4.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Guangzhou Development Group Inc (600098)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Guangzhou Development Group Inc is 8.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Guangzhou Development Group Inc (600098)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guangzhou Development Group Inc is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Guangzhou Development Group Inc (600098)?

The operating margin of Guangzhou Development Group Inc is 4.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Guangzhou Development Group Inc (600098)?

Revenue at Guangzhou Development Group Inc is growing +7.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Guangzhou Development Group Inc (600098)?

Earnings per share at Guangzhou Development Group Inc are growing +18.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does Guangzhou Development Group Inc (600098) generate?

The free cash flow of Guangzhou Development Group Inc is −1.0B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net debt does Guangzhou Development Group Inc (600098) carry?

The net debt of Guangzhou Development Group Inc is 26.4B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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