Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd (600169) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd ¥0.99, price ¥2.19, upside -54.8%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥1.77 – ¥3.48 · fair‑value band ¥0.7500 – ¥1.21 · the ¥2.19 price screens above the ¥0.9900 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells heavy-duty machinery in China.
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Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells heavy-duty machinery in China. It offers railway wheels, axles, gearboxes, wheelsets, and tunnel boring machines; mining shovels and hydraulic excavators, semi-mobile crushing stations, self-mobile crushing stations, spreaders, discharging cars, crawler transporters, and belt conveyors; heavy duty and special cranes, and dry quenching lifters; seamless steel tube, plate and strip rolling mill and finishing, oil film bearing, coke oven and converter tilting equipment, plate correcting, and steel pipe welding equipment; and extrusion, forging hydraulic, punching hydraulic, and special purpose hydraulic presses. The company also provides wind turbine, cranes and forgings for nuclear power stations, and nuclear vessels; jack-up drilling platforms, lift-boats, port machinery, and hydraulic pile driving hammers; and coal chemical and petrochemical products, sea water desalinization, and coal-based direct iron reduction. In addition, it offers all-terrain telescopic and lattice boom crane, crawler-type telescopic and lattice boom care, hydraulic gantry crane, and other construction machinery products; and space launch towers, stage equipment, gear transmission, castings and forging equipment, and electric control equipment. The company also exports its products to approximately 50 countries. Its products are used in the fields of metallurgy, mining, energy, transportation, offshore, aerospace, chemical, railway, shipbuilding, environmental protection, etc. Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in Taiyuan, China.
Stock analysis
Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd (600169) currently trades at ¥2.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.9900, implying the stock looks roughly 121.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of ¥2.54 per share, and 2 of the 12 models we run sit above the ¥2.19 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥0.5000, and 10 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥0.7500 (bear) to ¥1.21 (bull), the price of ¥2.19 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd reported revenue of 9.2B CNY in FY2024 versus 8.6B CNY in FY2020, a compound +1.8%/yr. Reported net income was 195M CNY in FY2024, compounding +55.1%/yr from FY2020. FY2020 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 7.3B CNY (≈ $1.1B) · P/E ratio 31.3 · P/S ratio 0.66 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.0700 · Dividend yield 8.2% · Net margin 2.1% · Return on equity 5.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at −55%, 600169 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥0.7500Fair Value ¥0.9900Bull ¥1.21
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2024 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0700 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.30/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+41.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+33.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.33% vs 19%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−12% → 3%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.3%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Compare Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 832 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−55% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)8.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.44× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)31.3× · Pricier than median
P/B1.39× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.71× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA10.6× · Cheaper than median
PEG45.62× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)1· sector 22
PAST (return on equity)24· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)28· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 24
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600169
Frequently asked questions
Is Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd (600169) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥0.9900 versus a price of ¥2.19, about −55% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600169?
Our model-based fair value for Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd is ¥0.9900 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥2.19.
What is the quality score of 600169?
Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd (600169)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥0.9900 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥0.7500, optimistic scenario ¥1.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥0.9900, about −55% upside versus a price of ¥2.19 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥0.7500, optimistic scenario ¥1.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd (600169)?
Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 10.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.20% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd (600169)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd it is ¥0.9900 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of ¥2.19. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 600169 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥2.19, fair value ¥0.9900, a gap of about −55% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600169?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥2.19); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥0.9900). For Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd the two are ¥1.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd worth?
The market values Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd at about 7.3B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is ¥2.19; our models calculate a fair value of ¥0.9900 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600169?
Our models span a range for Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥0.7500, base ¥0.9900, optimistic ¥1.21 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price ¥2.19). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 600169?
Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥0.9900 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 45.6, P/B 1.4, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 10.6.
What is the PEG ratio of 600169?
The PEG ratio of Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd is 45.62 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd (600169)?
Balance-sheet figures for Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 5.9%, debt of 1.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600169 from its 52-week high?
Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd trades at ¥2.19, about 25% below its 52-week high of ¥2.93 and 16% above the low of ¥1.89 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥0.9900 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price ¥2.19, calculated fair value ¥0.9900 (−55%), Quality Score 41/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600169 calculated?
We run Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥0.9900, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd (600169)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ¥2.19. Our model-based fair value is ¥0.9900, about −55% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.21). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd (600169)?
The market capitalisation of Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd is 7.3B CNY (≈ $1.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd (600169)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd is 0.66 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd (600169)?
Earnings per share at Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd are ¥0.0700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 31.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd (600169)?
The dividend yield of Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd is 8.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd (600169)?
The net margin of Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd is 2.1% (fiscal year 2024). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd (600169)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd is 5.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd (600169)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd is 0.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd (600169)?
The operating margin of Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd (600169)?
Revenue at Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd is growing +0.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd (600169)?
Earnings per share at Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd are growing +28.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd (600169) generate?
The free cash flow of Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd is −956M CNY (fiscal year 2024). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd (600169) carry?
The net debt of Taiyuan Heavy Industry Co Ltd is 9.7B CNY (fiscal year 2024). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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