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Guanghui Energy Co (600256) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · CN · Market cap 35.7B CNY

GE Guanghui Energy Co 600256 · SHG
Price¥5.67
Fair Value¥3.58
Upside-36.9%
Quality59/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 3.1% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
1.17% dividend yield
Trails peers (3/14)
Narrow moat 34/100
Evidence: High Range ¥2.84 – ¥4.47 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 7, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Share price +10.1% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 37% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥4.47). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥13.13 ¥2.31 Fair Value ¥3.58 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥2.31 – ¥13.13 · fair‑value band ¥2.84 – ¥4.47 · the ¥5.67 price screens above the ¥3.58 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 7, 2026.

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Analysis

Guanghui Energy Co (600256) currently trades at ¥5.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.58, implying the stock looks roughly 36.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Guanghui Energy Co generated revenue of 28.4B CNY at a net margin of 3.1%. Revenue declined 22.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.0%. Net debt stands at 10.6B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 7, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥2.84 (bear case) to ¥4.47 (bull case); at ¥5.67, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at -37%, 600256 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥8.59 ¥17.60 ¥31.62 80
Residual Income ¥2.98 ¥3.08 ¥3.08 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥5.17 ¥9.10 ¥14.51 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥8.80 ¥17.07 ¥35.43 38
Owner Earnings ¥6.43 ¥13.29 ¥26.23 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥5.17 ¥9.18 ¥14.67 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥5.17 ¥9.18 ¥14.28 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥3.80 ¥6.18 ¥8.89 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥6.12 ¥10.50 ¥17.43 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥6.27 ¥10.50 ¥17.09 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥5.34 ¥8.23 ¥12.29 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥1.43 ¥8.05 ¥11.18 54
Lynch FV ¥2.25 ¥3.22 ¥4.19 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥2.25 ¥3.22 ¥4.19 46
EPV ¥3.94 ¥4.68 ¥5.32 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥6.62 ¥13.75 ¥21.82 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥6.62 ¥11.60 ¥14.44 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥2.21 ¥2.95 ¥3.68 63
P/S Multiple ¥2.68 ¥3.58 ¥4.47 58
P/B Multiple ¥2.68 ¥3.58 ¥4.47 55
EV/EBIT ¥3.80 ¥5.23 ¥6.66 53
EV/EBITDA ¥3.82 ¥5.25 ¥6.68 54
EV/Revenue ¥3.53 ¥5.24 ¥6.96 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥1.89 ¥2.54 ¥3.79 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥8.59 ¥17.60 ¥31.62 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥5.17 ¥9.10 ¥14.51 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥2.98 ¥3.08 ¥3.08 76
ROIC Compounder ¥4.06 ¥5.99 ¥7.78 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥2.84 ¥4.05 ¥5.27 68

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (¥11.60) versus Asset-Based (¥2.54). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 28.4B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) -22.9%
Net margin 3.1%
Return on equity 3.0%
Free cash flow 4.2B CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 47.1
More key figures
Operating margin 9.4%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.1400
Dividend yield 1.0%
EPS growth (YoY) -65.0%
Net debt 10.6B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 59/100

Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43

Profitability 30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 20
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 77
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 43
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 68
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 32
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 93
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Guanghui Energy Co., Ltd. operates in the energy development business in China. The company's principal products include coal, liquefied natural gas, methanol, coal tar, and ethylene glycol.

Full company description

Guanghui Energy Co., Ltd. operates in the energy development business in China. The company's principal products include coal, liquefied natural gas, methanol, coal tar, and ethylene glycol. It is also involved in the natural gas liquefaction, coal mining, coal chemical, and oil and gas exploration and development activities, as well as energy logistics services. The company was formerly known as Xinjiang Guanghui Industrial Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Guanghui Energy Co., Ltd. in June 2012. Guanghui Energy Co., Ltd. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Urumqi, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Guanghui Energy Co reported revenue of ¥30.4B in FY2025 versus ¥24.9B in FY2021, a compound +5.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥1.3B in FY2025, compounding −28.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
30.4B CNY
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+13.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+21.0%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y)
+24.6%
Revenue +5.2%/yr
FY21 ¥24.9B
FY22 ¥59.4B
FY23 ¥61.5B
FY24 ¥36.4B
FY25 ¥30.4B
Net income −28.0%/yr
FY21 ¥5.0B
FY22 ¥11.3B
FY23 ¥5.2B
FY24 ¥3.0B
FY25 ¥1.3B

600256 screens 37% overvalued. Compare with Saudi Arabian Oil Company →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guanghui Energy Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600256

Peer Group

Oil & Gas Integrated · 54 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 59 · Above median
Fair Value upside −37% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 9% · Below median
Revenue growth -23% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.2% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.20× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 39.9× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 1.48× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.26× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 1.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 7.1× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 16
FUTURE 0 · sector 7
PAST 12 · sector 45
HEALTH 90 · sector 87
DIVIDEND 23 · sector 79

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 7, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Saudi Arabian Oil Company 2222 26.72 SAR 20.14 SAR -25%
Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM $144.51 $90.37 -37%
Chevron Corporation CHEV C$22.88 C$7.97 -65%
PetroChina Company 601857 ¥10.29 ¥16.51 +60%
Shell plc SHELL €38.04 €46.09 +21%
TotalEnergies SE TTE C$13.80 C$7.92 -43%
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A PETR3 12,540 ARS 30,914 ARS +147%
BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, BP $40.83 $12.71 -69%
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 ¥5.03 ¥4.46 -11%
Equinor ASA EQNR $36.19 $34.53 -5%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Guanghui Energy Co (600256) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥3.58 versus a price of ¥5.67, about −37% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600256?
Our model-based fair value for Guanghui Energy Co is ¥3.58 (as of Aug 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥5.67.
What is the quality score of 600256?
Guanghui Energy Co has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Guanghui Energy Co (600256)?
Guanghui Energy Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 28.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Aug 7, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 600256?
The net profit margin of Guanghui Energy Co is about 3.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Guanghui Energy Co pay a dividend?
Guanghui Energy Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.00% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 7, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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