Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd (600354) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 12, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd stock ¥1.88, price ¥7.22, that is 74.0% below the price, quality 74 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.49 – ¥11.45 · fair‑value band ¥1.41 – ¥2.35 · the ¥7.22 price screens above the ¥1.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 13, 2026.
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Gansu Dunhuang Seed Group Co.,Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the seed, cotton, and food processing businesses in China and internationally.
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The company is involved in the selection, production, processing, and sale crop seeds, such as pasture, sugar beets, oilseeds, cotton, rice, corn, wheat, cotton, and other crop seeds, as well as vegetables, fruits, and flower seeds; fertilizers and films; acquisition, processing, wholesale, and retail of agricultural and sideline products.
It also provides agricultural base construction and management services; leasing and sale of agricultural machinery and equipment; imports crop seeds; produces, process, and sells tomato powder.
In addition, the company offers horticultural design and construction activities; and designs, develops, produces, and sells plastic packaging products.
Further, it provides lint, cotton linters, cottonseed, and other products; short velvet, cotton hull, and cotton yarn; and oysters, pastures, edible oils, sunflower seeds, gourd seeds, peppers, cumin, onions, dates, alfalfa, and dried fruits.
Additionally, the company is involved in the cotton business agency, goods warehousing, and cargo transportation services; and cultivating, processing, and selling various condiments, food, food ingredients, and related products, including fruits and vegetables, edible plants, and seeds.
Gansu Dunhuang Seed Group Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1998 and is based in Jiuquan, China.
Stock analysis
Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd (600354) currently trades at ¥7.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.88, 74% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ¥3.15 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the ¥7.22 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥0.9900, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥1.41 (bear) to ¥2.35 (bull), the price of ¥7.22 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd reported revenue of 1.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 922M CNY in FY2021, a compound +5.9%/yr. Reported net income was 47.3M CNY in FY2025, compounding +51.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 3.8B CNY (≈ $572M) Small · P/E ratio 28.9 · P/S ratio 2.91 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.2500 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 10.5% · Return on equity 29.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.1% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 61 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at −74%, 600354 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥1.41Fair Value ¥1.88Bull¥2.35
Price ¥7.22 · Downside -74.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.2171 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.76/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.2% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+19.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+19.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.19.6% vs 6.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 19%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.5%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.1%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −6.6% a year for the price.
Compare Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 300 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−74.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)29.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)30.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)41.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)97.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.16× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600354
Frequently asked questions
Is Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd (600354) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.88 versus a price of ¥7.22, about 74% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600354?
Our model-based fair value for Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd is ¥1.88 (as of Nov 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥7.22.
What is the quality score of 600354?
Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd (600354)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥1.88 (as of Nov 13, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥1.41, optimistic scenario ¥2.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥1.88, about 74% lower versus a price of ¥7.22 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥1.41, optimistic scenario ¥2.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd (600354)?
Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 13, 2026).
Does Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.26% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 13, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd (600354)?
Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd has a dividend yield of 0.3%.
What growth is priced into Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd (600354)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -5.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.0 % per year. As of Nov 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 600354 use?
Our models discount Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.56, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd that is -5.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd (600354) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd grew +4.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -5.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd (600354) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd (-5.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd (600354)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.50 %: that much free cash flow Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd (600354)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd it is ¥1.88 per share (as of Nov 13, 2026), against a price of ¥7.22. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 13, 2026, 600354 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥7.22, fair value ¥1.88, a gap of about −74% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600354?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥7.22); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥1.88). For Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd the two are ¥5.34 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd worth?
The market values Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd at about 3.8B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 13, 2026). Per share that is ¥7.22; our models calculate a fair value of ¥1.88 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600354?
Our models span a range for Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥1.41, base ¥1.88, optimistic ¥2.35 per share (as of Nov 13, 2026, price ¥7.22). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 600354?
Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.9 (as of Nov 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥1.88 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings: 77.9. Other multiples: P/B 5.4, P/S 8.5, EV/EBITDA 23.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd (600354)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd (as of Nov 13, 2026): return on equity 29.5%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600354 from its 52-week high?
Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd trades at ¥7.22, about 37% below its 52-week high of ¥11.45 and 52% above the low of ¥4.76 (as of Nov 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥1.88 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Muyuan Foods Group, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Tyson Foods, Inc, Bunge Global SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 13, 2026: price ¥7.22, calculated fair value ¥1.88 (−74%), Quality Score 74/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600354 calculated?
We run Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥1.88 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3% above its aggregate fair value. Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd (600354)?
The closing price on Nov 12, 2026 was ¥7.22. Our model-based fair value is ¥1.88, about 74% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.35). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (74/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd (600354)?
The market capitalisation of Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd is 3.8B CNY (≈ $572M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd (600354)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd is 2.91 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd (600354)?
Earnings per share at Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd are ¥0.2500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd (600354)?
The dividend yield of Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd is 0.3% (payout 7.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd (600354)?
The net margin of Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd is 10.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd (600354)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd is 29.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd (600354)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd is 6.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd (600354)?
The operating margin of Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd is 41.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd (600354)?
Revenue at Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd is growing +97.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd (600354)?
Earnings per share at Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd are growing −26.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd (600354) hold?
Gansu Dunhuang Seed Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 534M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 13, 2026