Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd (600684) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd stock ¥0.73, price ¥3.16, that is 76.9% below the price, quality 37 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 9 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥2.39 – ¥6.47 · fair‑value band ¥0.7310 – ¥0.8415 · the ¥3.16 price screens above the ¥0.7310 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Guangzhou Pearl River Development Group Co., Ltd. engages in property management business in China. It operates through property management business, cultural and sports operation business, and real estate sales and related businesses segments.
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The company offers urban life services, urban public construction services, advertising and promotion services, gymnasium management services, gymnasium operations and related supporting services, hotel management services, real estate rental and sales services, and other services.
It also involved in unit logistics management, health consultation, and sports and health services; own funds for investment activities, business management, and social and economic consulting services; investing in agricultural, tourism, and cultural industry projects and domestic trade; self-owned housing leasing; and provision of parking lot and on-site repair and maintenance services.
The company was formerly known as Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co.,Ltd. Guangzhou Pearl River Development Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.
Stock analysis
Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd (600684) currently trades at ¥3.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.7310, 77% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥2.28 per share, and 0 of the 9 models we run sit above the ¥3.16 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥0.1900, and 9 of the 9 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥0.7310 (bear) to ¥0.8415 (bull), the price of ¥3.16 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd reported revenue of 1.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound −18.6%/yr. Reported net income was 74.0M CNY in FY2025, compounding +3.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.5B CNY (≈ $524M) Small · P/E ratio 45.1 · P/S ratio 2.17 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.0700 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 4.2% · Return on equity 8.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 33% fair-value upside, at −77%, 600684 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥0.7310Fair Value ¥0.7310Bull¥0.8415
Price ¥3.16 · Downside -76.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0600 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income¥0.8600¥0.8600¥0.910076
Gordon GGM¥0.1100¥0.2000¥0.280067
DDM Multi-Stage¥0.1100¥0.1800¥0.220067
All 9 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM¥0.1100¥0.2000¥0.280067
DDM Multi-Stage¥0.1100¥0.1800¥0.220067
Multiples
P/S Multiple¥0.8500¥1.14¥1.4258
P/B Multiple¥1.71¥2.28¥2.8555
EV/EBIT¥2.15¥2.76¥3.3766
EV/EBITDA¥2.27¥2.92¥3.5767
EV/Revenue¥1.33¥1.76¥2.2054
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥0.5200¥0.7900¥0.990054
Economic Profit
Residual Income¥0.8600¥0.8600¥0.910076
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−16.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−16.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Per share before 1997divided by the spin-off factor 1.096
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−16.9% vs −14.8%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−8% → 8%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+62.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +59.7% a year for the price.
Compare Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 489 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score37 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−76.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.0% · Above median
Return on assets3.5% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)4.2% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)6.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)4.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity6.06× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600684
Frequently asked questions
Is Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd (600684) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥0.7310 versus a price of ¥3.16, about 77% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600684?
Our model-based fair value for Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd is ¥0.7310 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥3.16.
What is the quality score of 600684?
Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd (600684)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥0.7310 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥0.7310, optimistic scenario ¥0.8415. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥0.7310, about 77% lower versus a price of ¥3.16 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥0.7310, optimistic scenario ¥0.8415. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd (600684)?
Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.42% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd (600684)?
Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd has a dividend yield of 0.4%.
What growth is priced into Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd (600684)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +62.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -8.5 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 600684 use?
Our models discount Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.57, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd that is +62.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd (600684) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd grew -8.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +62.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd (600684) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd (+62.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd (600684)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.36 %: that much free cash flow Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd (600684)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd it is ¥0.7310 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of ¥3.16. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, 600684 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥3.16, fair value ¥0.7310, a gap of about −77% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600684?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥3.16); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥0.7310). For Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd the two are ¥2.43 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd worth?
The market values Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd at about 3.5B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is ¥3.16; our models calculate a fair value of ¥0.7310 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600684?
Our models span a range for Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥0.7310, base ¥0.7310, optimistic ¥0.8415 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price ¥3.16). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 600684?
Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 45.1 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥0.7310 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.4, P/B 2.8, P/S 2.2.
What is the PEG ratio of 600684?
The PEG ratio of Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd is 2.37 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd (600684)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 8.0%, debt of 6.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600684 from its 52-week high?
Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd trades at ¥3.16, about 41% below its 52-week high of ¥5.36 and 7% above the low of ¥2.95 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥0.7310 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, CK Asset Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price ¥3.16, calculated fair value ¥0.7310 (−77%), Quality Score 37/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600684 calculated?
We run Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd through 9 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥0.7310 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd (600684)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ¥3.16. Our model-based fair value is ¥0.7310, about 77% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥0.8415). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd (600684)?
The market capitalisation of Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd is 3.5B CNY (≈ $524M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd (600684)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd is 2.17 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd (600684)?
Earnings per share at Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd are ¥0.0700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 45.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd (600684)?
The dividend yield of Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd is 0.4% (payout 18.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd (600684)?
The net margin of Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd is 4.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd (600684)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd is 8.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd (600684)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd is 0.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd (600684)?
The operating margin of Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd is 6.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd (600684)?
Revenue at Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd is growing +4.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −32.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd (600684)?
Earnings per share at Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd are growing −41.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd (600684) hold?
Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 361M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 7, 2026