China Merchants Securities Co (600999) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · CN · Market cap 165B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price −10.9% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 41% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥19.06). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥10.75 – ¥22.45 · fair‑value band ¥19.06 – ¥31.76 · the ¥18.00 price screens below the ¥25.41 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
China Merchants Securities Co (600999) currently trades at ¥18.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥25.41, implying the stock looks roughly 41.2% undervalued today. We read business quality at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, China Merchants Securities Co generated revenue of 27.3B CNY at a net margin of 48.8%. Revenue grew 52.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 89.7B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥19.06 (bear case) to ¥31.76 (bull case); at ¥18.00, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at 41%, 600999 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥86.27) versus Asset-Based (¥12.16). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Merchants Securities Co., Ltd. engages in the wealth management and institutional, investment banking, investment management, investment, and trading businesses in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Wealth management and institutional business; Investment banking; Investment management; and other segments.
Full company description
China Merchants Securities Co., Ltd. engages in the wealth management and institutional, investment banking, investment management, investment, and trading businesses in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Wealth management and institutional business; Investment banking; Investment management; and other segments. The company trades in stocks and futures contracts; provides margin financing and securities lending services; and sells financial and other wealth management products. It also offers investment banking services to its institutional clients, including financial advisory, equity and debt underwriting, and sponsorship; and assets management, investing advisory, deal execution, and private equity investment management services. In addition, the company trades in equity and fixed-income securities, derivatives, and other financial products, as well as offers market maker and alternative investment services. The company was founded in 1991 and is based in Shenzhen, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Merchants Securities Co reported revenue of ¥24.9B in FY2025 versus ¥29.3B in FY2021, a compound −4.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥12.3B in FY2025, compounding +1.4%/yr from FY2021.
Watch 600999: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Capital Markets · 424 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Huatai Securities Co HTSC | $0.2700 | $0.0400 | -85% |
| Mirae Asset Securities Co 006800 | 38,750 KRW | 31,645 KRW | -18% |
| Meritz Financial Group 138040 | 117,000 KRW | 87,706 KRW | -25% |
| Korea Investment Holdings 071050 | 239,000 KRW | 318,825 KRW | +33% |
| NH Investment & Securities Co 005940 | 31,000 KRW | 37,133 KRW | +20% |
| Samsung Securities Co 016360 | 107,700 KRW | 126,487 KRW | +17% |
| Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited MOTILALOFS | ₹967.00 | ₹299.65 | -69% |
| Kiwoom Securities Co 039490 | 322,000 KRW | 358,091 KRW | +11% |
| SSI Securities Corporation SSI | 24,250 VND | 28,021 VND | +16% |
| Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos S.A BYMA | 313.75 ARS | 120.22 ARS | -62% |
Compare China Merchants Securities Co with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Financial Services stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is China Merchants Securities Co (600999) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of 600999?
What is the quality score of 600999?
What is the revenue of China Merchants Securities Co (600999)?
What is the net profit margin of 600999?
Does China Merchants Securities Co pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track China Merchants Securities Co and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.