CITIC Heavy Industries Co (601608) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 22.4B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 10, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated today
Share price +7.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 72% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.74). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.09 – ¥8.23 · fair‑value band ¥1.05 – ¥1.74 · the ¥4.89 price screens above the ¥1.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 10, 2026.
Analysis
CITIC Heavy Industries Co (601608) currently trades at ¥4.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.39, implying the stock looks roughly 71.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, CITIC Heavy Industries Co generated revenue of 8.1B CNY at a net margin of 4.7%. Revenue grew 0.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.9%. Net debt stands at 1.1B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 10, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥1.05 (bear case) to ¥1.74 (bull case); at ¥4.89, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -72%, 601608 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥2.19) versus Dividend Discount (¥0.4100). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 10, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
CITIC Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells heavy machinery in China and internationally. It operates in four segments: Mining and Heavy Equipment, Robotics and Intelligent Equipment, New Energy Equipment, and Special Materials.
Full company description
CITIC Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells heavy machinery in China and internationally. It operates in four segments: Mining and Heavy Equipment, Robotics and Intelligent Equipment, New Energy Equipment, and Special Materials. The company offers jaw crushers, hoist, gyratory and cone crushers, high pressure roller mill, vertical stirred mill, autogenous mill, semi-autogenous mill, ball mill, rod mill, vertical disc filter, anode furnace, and semi-mobile crushing station; rotary kiln, roller press, raw material vertical mill, equipment for new dry-cement production line, and slag grinding system; cantilever tunneling machine, vertical shaft, wind power rock-embedded drilling rig, and hard rock tunnel boring machine; and smelting anode, wide and thick plate rolling mill, steelmaking converter, pellet kiln, and straightening machine. It also provides vertical shaft drilling rig, multi-rope friction ground, electro-hydraulic transmission and control system, and double roll forming machine; steam turbine, dynamo, hydraulic ship lift, and fixed type gate hoist; and spare parts and technical services. In addition, it offers offshore wind power equipment, hydraulic pile hammer, catheter stent, and hydraulic pile driver operation; x-ray inspection system, container vehicle inspection, and series of high-resolution industrial CT; robots for emergency and special operations; and storage and transformation systems. The company exports its products. It serves mining, cement, and other processing industries. The company was formerly known as Luoyang Mining Machinery Factory and changed its name to CITIC Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. in January 1993. CITIC Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Luoyang, China. CITIC Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of CITIC Group Corporation.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
CITIC Heavy Industries Co reported revenue of ¥8.1B in FY2025 versus ¥7.6B in FY2021, a compound +1.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥375M in FY2025, compounding +13.5%/yr from FY2021.
601608 screens 72% overvalued. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →
Peer Group
Specialty Industrial Machinery · 809 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 10, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GE Vernova Inc 1GEV | €887.60 | €186.93 | -79% |
| 1SIE 1SIE | €273.20 | €91.93 | -66% |
| SMNS SMNS | C$31.76 | C$22.68 | -29% |
| Eaton Corporation ETN | $407.28 | $171.92 | -58% |
| Atlas Copco AB ATCOA | kr 195.15 | kr 112.59 | -42% |
| Sandvik AB SAND | kr 384.10 | kr 193.01 | -50% |
| Doosan Enerbility Co 034020 | 76,400 KRW | 7,938 KRW | -90% |
| Vestas Wind Systems A/S VWS | kr 178.10 | kr 124.54 | -30% |
| Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co 002050 | ¥43.20 | ¥22.68 | -48% |
| NARI Technology Co 600406 | ¥22.19 | ¥18.71 | -16% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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