Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd (601816) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd stock ¥5.84, price ¥5.27, upside +10.8%, quality 73 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.33 – ¥6.37 · fair‑value band ¥4.17 – ¥7.31 · the ¥5.27 price screens below the ¥5.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co., Ltd. engages in the construction and operation of high-speed trains for passengers.
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The company provides high-speed rail transportation services to passengers on the operated trains and collecting ticket prices, as well as overhead line use and other services to passengers.
It also offers passenger transportation, consulting, property management, logistics, warehousing, and parking services. The company was founded in 2008 and is based in Beijing, China.
Stock analysis
Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd (601816) currently trades at ¥5.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.84, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.8%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥6.50 per share, and 12 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥5.27 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥2.06, and 14 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥4.17 (bear) to ¥7.31 (bull), the price of ¥5.27 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd reported revenue of 43.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 29.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound +10.1%/yr. Reported net income was 13.2B CNY in FY2025, compounding +28.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 258B CNY (≈ $38.7B) Large · P/E ratio 18.8 · P/S ratio 5.87 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.2800 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 30.9% · Return on equity 5.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 67 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at 11%, 601816 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥4.17Fair Value ¥5.84Bull¥7.31
Price ¥5.27 · Upside +10.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.1571 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.89/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +24.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +22.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 22.4% / 3.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 44%
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2020 (starting value 0.098 per share, median 0.23 in 2016 to 2018). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.6% a year for the price and +3.7% for the forecasts.
Compare Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 108 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score73 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)5.9% · Below median
Return on assets4.6% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)30.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)47.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)0.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.23× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)18.8× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.24× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)5.87× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)12.6× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601816
Frequently asked questions
Is Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd (601816) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥5.84 versus a price of ¥5.27, about +11% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 601816?
Our model-based fair value for Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd is ¥5.84 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥5.27.
What is the quality score of 601816?
Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd (601816)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥5.84 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥4.17, optimistic scenario ¥7.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥5.84, about +11% upside versus a price of ¥5.27 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario ¥4.17, optimistic scenario ¥7.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd (601816)?
Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 43.9B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 1.80% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd (601816)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +1.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.3 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 601816 use?
Our models discount Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.06, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd that is +1.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd (601816) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd grew +11.3 % a year. The price currently implies +1.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd (601816) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd (+1.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd (601816)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.93 %: that much free cash flow Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd (601816)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd it is ¥5.84 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of ¥5.27. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, 601816 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥5.27, fair value ¥5.84, a gap of about +11% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 601816?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥5.27); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥5.84). For Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd the two are ¥0.5710 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd worth?
The market values Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd at about 258B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is ¥5.27; our models calculate a fair value of ¥5.84 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 601816?
Our models span a range for Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥4.17, base ¥5.84, optimistic ¥7.31 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price ¥5.27). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 601816?
Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.8 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥5.84 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2020 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 23.7. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 5.9, EV/EBITDA 11.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd (601816)?
Balance-sheet figures for Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 5.9%, debt of 0.23 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 73/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 601816 from its 52-week high?
Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd trades at ¥5.27, about 1% below its 52-week high of ¥5.31 and 16% above the low of ¥4.53 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥5.84 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price ¥5.27, calculated fair value ¥5.84 (+11%), Quality Score 73/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 601816 calculated?
We run Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥5.84, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd currently trades 10% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd (601816)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was ¥5.27. Our model-based fair value is ¥5.84, about +11% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd (601816)?
The market capitalisation of Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd is 258B CNY (≈ $38.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd (601816)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd is 5.87 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd (601816)?
Earnings per share at Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd are ¥0.2800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd (601816)?
The dividend yield of Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd is 1.8% (payout 33.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd (601816)?
The net margin of Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd is 30.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd (601816)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd is 5.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd (601816)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd is 3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd (601816)?
The operating margin of Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd is 47.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd (601816)?
Revenue at Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd is growing +0.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +30.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd (601816)?
Earnings per share at Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd are growing −1.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd (601816) carry?
The net debt of Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co Ltd is 32.2B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 4, 2026