China Merchants Energy Shipping Co (601872) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · CN · Market cap 125B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from ¥7.13 to ¥7.15 (+0.3%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price +12.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 60% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥13.92). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide (¥3.14 to ¥13.92). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.59 – ¥21.91 · fair‑value band ¥3.14 – ¥13.92 · the ¥17.88 price screens above the ¥7.15 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
China Merchants Energy Shipping Co (601872) currently trades at ¥17.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.15, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% overvalued today. We read business quality at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, China Merchants Energy Shipping Co generated revenue of 31.1B CNY at a net margin of 25.4%. Revenue grew 52.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.3%. Net debt stands at 24.4B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥3.14 (bear case) to ¥13.92 (bull case); at ¥17.88, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 198% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -35% fair-value upside, at -60%, 601872 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥15.38) versus Growth DCF (¥3.43). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Merchants Energy Shipping Co., Ltd. operates as a shipping company in China. It engages in the oil tanker, liquefied natural gas, dry bulk, RoRo, and container shipping. The company also offers digital transformation and tailored development services for the shipping and trade sector; and crew supply services for its fleets.
Full company description
China Merchants Energy Shipping Co., Ltd. operates as a shipping company in China. It engages in the oil tanker, liquefied natural gas, dry bulk, RoRo, and container shipping. The company also offers digital transformation and tailored development services for the shipping and trade sector; and crew supply services for its fleets. In addition, it operates a maritime service platform, which provides ship agency, provisioning, spare parts supply, maintenance, inspection, and safety check services. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China. China Merchants Energy Shipping Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of China Merchants Steam Navigation Company Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Merchants Energy Shipping Co reported revenue of ¥28.2B in FY2025 versus ¥24.4B in FY2021, a compound +3.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥6.0B in FY2025, compounding +13.6%/yr from FY2021.
601872 screens 60% overvalued. Compare with Enbridge Inc →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Midstream · 86 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Midstream stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Enbridge Inc ENB | $56.46 | $47.20 | -16% |
| The Williams Companies, Inc WMB | $73.38 | $12.03 | -84% |
| Enterprise Products Partners L.P. EPD | $38.31 | $24.74 | -35% |
| TC Energy Corporation TRP | C$97.79 | C$42.00 | -57% |
| Kinder Morgan, Inc KMI | $32.54 | $11.12 | -66% |
| Energy Transfer LP, ET | $19.91 | $17.69 | -11% |
| ONEOK, Inc OKE | $93.52 | $64.05 | -32% |
| Targa Resources Corp TRGP | $273.35 | $79.61 | -71% |
| MPLX LP owns and MPLX | $57.17 | $37.05 | -35% |
| Cheniere Energy, Inc LNG | $255.83 | $211.18 | -17% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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