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China Merchants Energy Shipping Co (601872) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · CN · Market cap 125B CNY

CM China Merchants Energy Shipping Co 601872 · SHG
Price¥17.88
Fair Value¥7.15
Upside-60.0%
Quality64/100
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Expensive Growth
Highly profitable · 25.4% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
2.02% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (8/15)
Wide moat 76/100
Evidence: High Range ¥3.14 – ¥13.92 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 26 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from ¥7.13 to ¥7.15 (+0.3%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price +12.1% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 60% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥13.92). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The model range is unusually wide (¥3.14 to ¥13.92). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥21.91 ¥3.59 Fair Value ¥7.15 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥3.59 – ¥21.91 · fair‑value band ¥3.14 – ¥13.92 · the ¥17.88 price screens above the ¥7.15 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

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Analysis

China Merchants Energy Shipping Co (601872) currently trades at ¥17.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.15, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% overvalued today. We read business quality at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, China Merchants Energy Shipping Co generated revenue of 31.1B CNY at a net margin of 25.4%. Revenue grew 52.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.3%. Net debt stands at 24.4B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥3.14 (bear case) to ¥13.92 (bull case); at ¥17.88, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 198% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -35% fair-value upside, at -60%, 601872 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥1.40 ¥3.43 ¥7.04 80
Residual Income ¥5.19 ¥6.60 ¥16.46 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥4.00 ¥8.81 ¥15.33 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥1.45 ¥3.73 ¥8.02 38
Owner Earnings ¥2.45 ¥5.71 ¥11.72 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥4.00 ¥9.07 ¥16.32 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥7.70 ¥17.03 ¥29.38 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥7.01 ¥15.55 ¥25.86 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥2.93 ¥7.53 ¥15.31 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥5.65 ¥13.52 ¥26.72 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥5.19 ¥12.41 ¥23.64 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥5.06 ¥27.13 ¥37.58 54
Lynch FV ¥7.49 ¥10.71 ¥13.92 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥7.49 ¥10.71 ¥13.92 46
EPV ¥5.49 ¥6.57 ¥7.51 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥2.08 ¥4.31 ¥6.84 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥2.08 ¥3.64 ¥4.53 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥11.17 ¥14.89 ¥18.61 63
P/S Multiple ¥6.54 ¥8.72 ¥10.90 58
P/B Multiple ¥9.49 ¥12.66 ¥15.82 55
EV/EBIT ¥9.54 ¥13.05 ¥16.57 53
EV/EBITDA ¥11.22 ¥15.30 ¥19.37 54
EV/Revenue ¥5.10 ¥7.72 ¥10.33 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥2.66 ¥3.57 ¥5.33 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥1.40 ¥3.43 ¥7.04 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥4.00 ¥8.81 ¥15.33 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥5.19 ¥6.60 ¥16.46 76
ROIC Compounder ¥5.59 ¥8.18 ¥10.66 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥10.77 ¥15.38 ¥19.99 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥15.38) versus Growth DCF (¥3.43). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 31.1B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +52.9%
Net margin 25.4%
Return on equity 18.3%
Free cash flow 1.4B CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 15.3
More key figures
Operating margin 38.8%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.9700
Dividend yield 2.1%
EPS growth (YoY) +209%
Net debt 24.4B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 64/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74

Profitability 46
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 51
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 58
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 38
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 49
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 84
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 87
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 87
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

China Merchants Energy Shipping Co., Ltd. operates as a shipping company in China. It engages in the oil tanker, liquefied natural gas, dry bulk, RoRo, and container shipping. The company also offers digital transformation and tailored development services for the shipping and trade sector; and crew supply services for its fleets.

Full company description

China Merchants Energy Shipping Co., Ltd. operates as a shipping company in China. It engages in the oil tanker, liquefied natural gas, dry bulk, RoRo, and container shipping. The company also offers digital transformation and tailored development services for the shipping and trade sector; and crew supply services for its fleets. In addition, it operates a maritime service platform, which provides ship agency, provisioning, spare parts supply, maintenance, inspection, and safety check services. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China. China Merchants Energy Shipping Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of China Merchants Steam Navigation Company Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China Merchants Energy Shipping Co reported revenue of ¥28.2B in FY2025 versus ¥24.4B in FY2021, a compound +3.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥6.0B in FY2025, compounding +13.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 54/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
28.2B CNY
Latest YoY
+9.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−1.8%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+5.4%
Avg. growth/yr (22Y)
+13.4%
Revenue +3.6%/yr
FY21 ¥24.4B
FY22 ¥29.7B
FY23 ¥25.9B
FY24 ¥25.8B
FY25 ¥28.2B
Net income +13.6%/yr
FY21 ¥3.6B
FY22 ¥5.1B
FY23 ¥4.8B
FY24 ¥5.1B
FY25 ¥6.0B

601872 screens 60% overvalued. Compare with Enbridge Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Merchants Energy Shipping Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601872

Peer Group

Oil & Gas Midstream · 86 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −60% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Return on assets 7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 25% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 39% · Above median
Revenue growth 53% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.0% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.30× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 15.9× · Pricier than median
P/B 2.90× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 4.01× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 12.8× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 12.2× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.42× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 100 · sector 42
PAST 73 · sector 41
HEALTH 85 · sector 55
DIVIDEND 40 · sector 99

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Midstream stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Enbridge Inc ENB $56.46 $47.20 -16%
The Williams Companies, Inc WMB $73.38 $12.03 -84%
Enterprise Products Partners L.P. EPD $38.31 $24.74 -35%
TC Energy Corporation TRP C$97.79 C$42.00 -57%
Kinder Morgan, Inc KMI $32.54 $11.12 -66%
Energy Transfer LP, ET $19.91 $17.69 -11%
ONEOK, Inc OKE $93.52 $64.05 -32%
Targa Resources Corp TRGP $273.35 $79.61 -71%
MPLX LP owns and MPLX $57.17 $37.05 -35%
Cheniere Energy, Inc LNG $255.83 $211.18 -17%

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Frequently asked questions

Is China Merchants Energy Shipping Co (601872) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥7.15 versus a price of ¥17.88, about −60% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 601872?
Our model-based fair value for China Merchants Energy Shipping Co is ¥7.15 (as of Jul 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥17.88.
What is the quality score of 601872?
China Merchants Energy Shipping Co has a Quality Score of 64/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of China Merchants Energy Shipping Co (601872)?
China Merchants Energy Shipping Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 31.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 12, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 601872?
The net profit margin of China Merchants Energy Shipping Co is about 25.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 25.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does China Merchants Energy Shipping Co pay a dividend?
China Merchants Energy Shipping Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.14% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 12, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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