Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co (601952) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · CN · Market cap 11.4B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 10, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated today
Share price +6.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 17% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- Our model range runs from ¥5.12 (bear) to ¥8.54 (bull), base ¥6.83. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 58/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥7.44 – ¥16.56 · fair‑value band ¥5.12 – ¥8.54 · the ¥8.24 price screens above the ¥6.83 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 10, 2026.
Analysis
Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co (601952) currently trades at ¥8.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥6.83, implying the stock looks roughly 17.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co generated revenue of 10.0B CNY at a net margin of 5.1%. Revenue declined 2.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.2%. Net debt stands at 3.8B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 10, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥5.12 (bear case) to ¥8.54 (bull case); at ¥8.24, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 102% fair-value upside, at -17%, 601952 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥13.53) versus Earnings-Based (¥2.99). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 10, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd. engages in the planting and sale of rice, wheat, and crop raw grains in China.
Full company description
Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd. engages in the planting and sale of rice, wheat, and crop raw grains in China. The company also provides edible oils comprising sunflower, corn, rice, and flaxseed oil under the Kuiwang and Golden Sun brands; malt products, such as pilsner light, ale, and munich dark; wheat, rice, barley, and corn seeds under the Dahua brand; and agricultural social services. In addition, it engages in the trading of agricultural inputs, such as urea, diammonium phosphate, agricultural microbial agents, bio-organic fertilizers, water-soluble fertilizers, blended fertilizers, horticultural nutrient soils, soil conditioners, substrates, and seedling trays under the Runken brand; e-commerce; agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery; sideline food processing; and wholesale activities. The company was founded in 1956 and is based in Nanjing, China. Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co.,Ltd. is a subsidiary of Jiangsu Agricultural Reclamation Group Co., Ltd.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation and Development Co reported revenue of ¥10.2B in FY2025 versus ¥10.6B in FY2021, a compound −0.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥554M in FY2025, compounding −6.8%/yr from FY2021.
601952 screens 17% overvalued. Compare with Muyuan Foods Group →
Peer Group
Farm Products · 291 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 10, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Muyuan Foods Group 002714 | ¥40.90 | ¥48.19 | +18% |
| Wens Foodstuff Group 300498 | ¥14.51 | ¥12.08 | -17% |
| Mowi ASA MOWI | kr 188.40 | kr 262.59 | +39% |
| PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk, CPIN | 3,120 IDR | 7,076 IDR | +127% |
| Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company CPF | 22.00 THB | 55.71 THB | +153% |
| PT Triputra Agro Persada Tbk TAPG | 1,540 IDR | 3,105 IDR | +102% |
| PT FAP Agri Tbk FAPA | 7,300 IDR | 7,463 IDR | +2% |
| PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk JPFA | 2,070 IDR | 7,231 IDR | +249% |
| Thaifoods Group TFGR | 10.60 THB | 23.53 THB | +122% |
| PT Jhonlin Agro Raya Tbk JARR | 1,845 IDR | 610.80 IDR | -67% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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