Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd (603096) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd stock ¥8.30, price ¥16.85, that is 50.7% below the price, quality 57 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 15 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥12.91 – ¥34.68 · fair‑value band ¥5.81 – ¥8.88 · the ¥16.85 price screens above the ¥8.30 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd. engages in the planning, publication, and authorization of digital content products in China. It offers foreign literature, Chinese literature, non-fiction works, and children's books.
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The company is also involved in the film and television production; marketing; copyrights related business, such as book-to-film adaptation projects; production and promotion of audiobooks; and books retail activities. Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd. was founded in 2009 and is based in Beijing, China.
Stock analysis
Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd (603096) currently trades at ¥16.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥8.30, 51% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥10.28 per share, and 1 of the 15 models we run sit above the ¥16.85 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at ¥4.55, and 14 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥5.81 (bear) to ¥8.88 (bull), the price of ¥16.85 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd reported revenue of 646M CNY in FY2025 versus 922M CNY in FY2021, a compound −8.5%/yr. Reported net income was 77.0M CNY in FY2025, compounding −12.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 2.6B CNY (≈ $389M) Small · P/E ratio 39.2 · P/S ratio 4.19 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.4300 · Dividend yield 3.6% · Net margin 12.0% · Return on equity 4.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.2% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at −51%, 603096 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥5.81Fair Value ¥8.30Bull¥8.88
Price ¥16.85 · Downside -50.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.19/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−21.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.1% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−14.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−17.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−17.9% vs −7.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.34% → 15%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.3%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Compare Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Publishing · 98 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Below median
Fair Value upside−50.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)4.1% · Below median
Return on assets3.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)12.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)16.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−5.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.6% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Publishing median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)39.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.39× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)4.19× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA27.5× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 50
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)16· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 99
DIVIDEND (yield)71· sector 59
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603096
Frequently asked questions
Is Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd (603096) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥8.30 versus a price of ¥16.85, about 51% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603096?
Our model-based fair value for Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd is ¥8.30 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥16.85.
What is the quality score of 603096?
Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd (603096)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥8.30 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥5.81, optimistic scenario ¥8.88. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥8.30, about 51% lower versus a price of ¥16.85 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥5.81, optimistic scenario ¥8.88. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd (603096)?
Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 620M CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd pay a dividend?
Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 3.56% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd (603096) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd pays a dividend of ¥0.6 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.6%. The last ex-dividend date was Jun 5, 2026. The payout ratio is 140% of earnings. Our assessment: Pays more than it earns. The company pays out more in dividends than it earns, and free cash flow clearly does not cover the dividend either. It may need to be cut unless profits recover.
What is the intrinsic value of Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd (603096)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd it is ¥8.30 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of ¥16.85. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, 603096 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥16.85, fair value ¥8.30, a gap of about −51% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603096?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥16.85); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥8.30). For Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd the two are ¥8.55 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd worth?
The market values Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd at about 2.6B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is ¥16.85; our models calculate a fair value of ¥8.30 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603096?
Our models span a range for Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd: cautious scenario ¥5.81, base ¥8.30, optimistic ¥8.88 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price ¥16.85). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 603096?
Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 39.2 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥8.30 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2021 to 2025), reported earnings: 24.2. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 4.2, EV/EBITDA 27.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd (603096)?
Balance-sheet figures for Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 4.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603096 from its 52-week high?
Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd trades at ¥16.85, about 28% below its 52-week high of ¥23.25 and 29% above the low of ¥13.02 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥8.30 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value The New York Times Company, Xinhua Winshare Publishing and Media Co, Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media Corporation, China Science Publishing & Media Ltd, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price ¥16.85, calculated fair value ¥8.30 (−51%), Quality Score 57/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603096 calculated?
We run Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd through 15 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥8.30 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd (603096)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ¥16.85. Our model-based fair value is ¥8.30, about 51% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥8.88). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd (603096) come from?
Earnings per share at Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd grew +0.9 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −0.7 %, EBIT margin +2.9 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd (603096)?
The market capitalisation of Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd is 2.6B CNY (≈ $389M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd (603096)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd is 4.19 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd (603096)?
Earnings per share at Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd are ¥0.4300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 39.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd (603096)?
The dividend yield of Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd is 3.6% (payout 140%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd (603096)?
The net margin of Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd is 12.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd (603096)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd is 4.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd (603096)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd is 8.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd (603096)?
The operating margin of Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd is 16.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd (603096)?
Revenue at Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd is growing −5.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd (603096)?
Earnings per share at Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd are growing +5.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd (603096) generate?
The free cash flow of Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd is −36.0M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd (603096) hold?
Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd holds more cash than debt, 147M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 8, 2026