Thinkingdom Media Group (603096) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · CN · Market cap 2.3B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 10, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated today
Share price +10.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 45% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥8.59). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥12.91 – ¥40.52 · fair‑value band ¥7.01 – ¥8.59 · the ¥15.14 price screens above the ¥8.30 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 10, 2026.
Analysis
Thinkingdom Media Group (603096) currently trades at ¥15.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥8.30, implying the stock looks roughly 45.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Thinkingdom Media Group generated revenue of 628M CNY at a net margin of 11.6%. Revenue declined 11.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 147M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 10, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥7.01 (bear case) to ¥8.59 (bull case); at ¥15.14, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at -45%, 603096 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (¥9.60) versus Earnings-Based (¥4.15). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 10, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd. engages in the planning, publication, and authorization of digital content products in China. It offers foreign literature, Chinese literature, non-fiction works, and children's books.
Full company description
Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd. engages in the planning, publication, and authorization of digital content products in China. It offers foreign literature, Chinese literature, non-fiction works, and children's books. The company is also involved in the film and television production; marketing; copyrights related business, such as book-to-film adaptation projects; production and promotion of audiobooks; and books retail activities. Thinkingdom Media Group Ltd. was founded in 2009 and is based in Beijing, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Thinkingdom Media Group reported revenue of ¥646M in FY2025 versus ¥922M in FY2021, a compound −8.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥77.0M in FY2025, compounding −12.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +2.7 pp · buybacks/dilution −3.4 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
603096 screens 45% overvalued. Compare with The New York Times Company →
Peer Group
Publishing · 111 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Publishing median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Publishing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 10, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times Company NYT | $76.71 | $41.95 | -45% |
| Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media Corporation 601928 | ¥9.20 | ¥10.07 | +9% |
| China Science Publishing & Media Ltd 601858 | ¥26.32 | ¥10.31 | -61% |
| People.cn CO., LTD 603000 | ¥17.10 | ¥4.23 | -75% |
| China South Publishing & Media Group 601098 | ¥10.43 | ¥14.66 | +41% |
| John Wiley & Sons, Inc WLY | $49.51 | $57.01 | +15% |
| Zhejiang Publishing & Media Co 601921 | ¥7.15 | ¥7.54 | +5% |
| Xinhua Winshare Publishing and Media Co 601811 | ¥11.87 | ¥21.61 | +82% |
| Shandong Publishing&Media Co 601019 | ¥6.98 | ¥11.60 | +66% |
| Guangdong Guangzhou Daily Media Co 002181 | ¥7.61 | ¥1.35 | -82% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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