Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp (603197) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp ¥21.86, price ¥29.30, upside -25.4%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥26.02 – ¥70.41 · fair‑value band ¥16.40 – ¥27.33 · the ¥29.30 price screens above the ¥21.86 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation manufactures and sells automotive parts and components.
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Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation manufactures and sells automotive parts and components. It provides automotive rubber and metal parts, including traditional and tire pressure monitoring system valves; electronically controlled air suspension system; automotive metal tubing, such as exhaust pipes, EGR pipes, roof rail, and metal brackets; automotive structural parts; tire pressure monitoring system; automotive sensors, that includes pressure rain and light, speed and position, current, and accelerator sensors; intelligent drive solutions; and automotive aftermarket and equipment products. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
Stock analysis
Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp (603197) currently trades at ¥29.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥21.86, implying the stock looks roughly 34.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥27.92 per share, and 3 of the 16 models we run sit above the ¥29.30 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥10.18, and 13 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥16.40 (bear) to ¥27.33 (bull), the price of ¥29.30 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp reported revenue of 8.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.9B CNY in FY2021, a compound +22.4%/yr. Reported net income was 213M CNY in FY2025, compounding −5.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 6.3B CNY (≈ $935M) · P/E ratio 33.3 · P/S ratio 0.81 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.8800 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 2.4% · Return on equity 6.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −25%, 603197 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥16.40Fair Value ¥21.86Bull ¥27.33
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.2707 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.50/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+24.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +20.2% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−0.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2% vs 6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 6%
Compare Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 695 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−25% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6% · Below median
Return on assets3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth18% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.71× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)33.3× · Pricier than median
P/B1.92× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)0.69× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA10.1× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)88· sector 19
PAST (return on equity)25· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)65· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)35· sector 38
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp (603197) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥21.86 versus a price of ¥29.30, about −25% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603197?
Our model-based fair value for Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp is ¥21.86 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥29.30.
What is the quality score of 603197?
Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp (603197)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥21.86 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥16.40, optimistic scenario ¥27.33. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥21.86, about −25% upside versus a price of ¥29.30 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥16.40, optimistic scenario ¥27.33. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp (603197)?
Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 9.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp pay a dividend?
Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.74% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp (603197)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp it is ¥21.86 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥29.30. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 603197 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥29.30, fair value ¥21.86, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603197?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥29.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥21.86). For Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp the two are ¥7.44 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp worth?
The market values Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp at about 6.3B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥29.30; our models calculate a fair value of ¥21.86 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603197?
Our models span a range for Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp: cautious scenario ¥16.40, base ¥21.86, optimistic ¥27.33 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥29.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 603197?
Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥21.86 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.9, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 10.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp (603197)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 6.3%, debt of 0.71 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603197 from its 52-week high?
Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp trades at ¥29.30, about 35% below its 52-week high of ¥45.36 and 9% above the low of ¥26.93 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥21.86 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥29.30, calculated fair value ¥21.86 (−25%), Quality Score 41/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603197 calculated?
We run Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥21.86, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp (603197)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ¥29.30. Our model-based fair value is ¥21.86, about −25% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥27.33). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp (603197) come from?
Earnings per share at Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp grew +15.8 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.3 %, EBIT margin −2.7 %, tax rate +4.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp (603197)?
The market capitalisation of Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp is 6.3B CNY (≈ $935M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp (603197)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp is 0.81 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp (603197)?
Earnings per share at Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp are ¥0.8800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 33.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp (603197)?
The dividend yield of Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp is 1.7% (payout 58.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp (603197)?
The net margin of Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp is 2.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp (603197)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp is 6.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp (603197)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp (603197)?
The operating margin of Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp is 8.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp (603197)?
Revenue at Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp is growing +17.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp (603197)?
Earnings per share at Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp are growing −26.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp (603197) generate?
The free cash flow of Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp is −281M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp (603197) carry?
The net debt of Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corp is 3.6B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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