Changshu Tongrun Auto (603201) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Changshu Tongrun Auto ¥17.13, price ¥15.94, upside +7.5%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
50‑month range ¥9.90 – ¥20.91 · fair‑value band ¥11.91 – ¥22.73 · the ¥15.94 price screens below the ¥17.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Changshu Tongrun Auto Accessory Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, manufacture, and sale of various hydraulic jacks.
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Changshu Tongrun Auto Accessory Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, manufacture, and sale of various hydraulic jacks. It provides garage series, tool cabinet and cart, work bench, jobsite box, tool box, and tool cabinet with tools; bottle jacks, floor jacks, jack stands, engine stand, engine crane, auto equipment and accessories, screw jacks, auto tools and storage, motorcycle equipment, other jacks, log splitter, wheel dolly, hydraulic shop press, transmission jacks, lifting table cart, and portable pow; and e-vehicle battery lift table and other e-vehicle tools. The company also offers post hydraulic lift, brake lathe, wheel alignment, scissor hydraulic lift, single-post car lift, tire balancer and changer, tire expander, tire vulicanizing machine, car jacks, emergency hand brakes, and spare tire jacks. It offers its products under the BIGRED, BLACK JACK, TCE, YELLOW JACKET, and ROAD DAWG brand names. The company was founded in 1954 and is headquartered in Changshu, China.
Stock analysis
Changshu Tongrun Auto (603201) currently trades at ¥15.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥17.13, implying the stock looks roughly 7.0% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥21.31 per share, and 13 of the 24 models we run sit above the ¥15.94 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥4.58, and 11 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥11.91 (bear) to ¥22.73 (bull), the price of ¥15.94 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Changshu Tongrun Auto reported revenue of 3.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound 0.0%/yr. Reported net income was 216M CNY in FY2025, compounding +11.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.0B CNY (≈ $452M) · P/E ratio 15.3 · P/S ratio 1.08 · EPS (TTM) ¥1.04 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 7.1% · Return on equity 11.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 7%, 603201 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥11.91Fair Value ¥17.13Bull ¥22.73
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.5069 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+4.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 10%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.6% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 695 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside+8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11% · Above median
Return on assets6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.11× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Changshu Tongrun Auto Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603201
Frequently asked questions
Is Changshu Tongrun Auto (603201) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥17.13 versus a price of ¥15.94, about +7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 603201?
Our model-based fair value for Changshu Tongrun Auto is ¥17.13 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥15.94.
What is the quality score of 603201?
Changshu Tongrun Auto has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Changshu Tongrun Auto (603201)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥17.13 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥11.91, optimistic scenario ¥22.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Changshu Tongrun Auto stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥17.13, about +7% upside versus a price of ¥15.94 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario ¥11.91, optimistic scenario ¥22.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Changshu Tongrun Auto (603201)?
Changshu Tongrun Auto reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Changshu Tongrun Auto pay a dividend?
Changshu Tongrun Auto currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.18% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Changshu Tongrun Auto (603201)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Changshu Tongrun Auto would have to grow free cash flow by +13.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 603201 use?
Our models discount Changshu Tongrun Auto at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.34, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Changshu Tongrun Auto that is +13.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Changshu Tongrun Auto (603201) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Changshu Tongrun Auto grew +4.3 % a year. The price currently implies +13.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Changshu Tongrun Auto (603201) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Changshu Tongrun Auto (+13.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Changshu Tongrun Auto (603201)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.39 %: that much free cash flow Changshu Tongrun Auto produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Changshu Tongrun Auto (603201)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Changshu Tongrun Auto it is ¥17.13 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥15.94. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Changshu Tongrun Auto stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 603201 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥15.94, fair value ¥17.13, a gap of about +7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603201?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥15.94); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥17.13). For Changshu Tongrun Auto the two are ¥1.19 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Changshu Tongrun Auto worth?
The market values Changshu Tongrun Auto at about 3.0B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥15.94; our models calculate a fair value of ¥17.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603201?
Our models span a range for Changshu Tongrun Auto: cautious scenario ¥11.91, base ¥17.13, optimistic ¥22.73 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥15.94). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 603201?
Changshu Tongrun Auto trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥17.13 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.7, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 7.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Changshu Tongrun Auto (603201)?
Balance-sheet figures for Changshu Tongrun Auto (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 11.4%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603201 from its 52-week high?
Changshu Tongrun Auto trades at ¥15.94, about 24% below its 52-week high of ¥20.91 and 17% above the low of ¥13.61 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥17.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Changshu Tongrun Auto?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Changshu Tongrun Auto stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥15.94, calculated fair value ¥17.13 (+7%), Quality Score 59/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603201 calculated?
We run Changshu Tongrun Auto through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥17.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Changshu Tongrun Auto currently trades 7 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Changshu Tongrun Auto (603201)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ¥15.94. Our model-based fair value is ¥17.13, about +7% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Changshu Tongrun Auto right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (¥11.91 to ¥22.73) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Changshu Tongrun Auto
How large is the market capitalisation of Changshu Tongrun Auto (603201)?
The market capitalisation of Changshu Tongrun Auto is 3.0B CNY (≈ $452M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Changshu Tongrun Auto (603201)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Changshu Tongrun Auto is 1.08 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Changshu Tongrun Auto (603201)?
Earnings per share at Changshu Tongrun Auto are ¥1.04 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Changshu Tongrun Auto (603201)?
The dividend yield of Changshu Tongrun Auto is 2.2% (payout 33.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Changshu Tongrun Auto (603201)?
The net margin of Changshu Tongrun Auto is 7.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Changshu Tongrun Auto (603201)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Changshu Tongrun Auto is 11.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Changshu Tongrun Auto (603201)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Changshu Tongrun Auto is 10.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Changshu Tongrun Auto (603201)?
The operating margin of Changshu Tongrun Auto is 8.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Changshu Tongrun Auto (603201)?
Revenue at Changshu Tongrun Auto is growing +1.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Changshu Tongrun Auto (603201)?
Earnings per share at Changshu Tongrun Auto are growing −35.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Changshu Tongrun Auto (603201) carry?
The net debt of Changshu Tongrun Auto is 203M CNY (fiscal year 2021, ≈ 1.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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