Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd (603398) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 26, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd stock ¥3.40, price ¥6.63, upside -48.7%, quality 25 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?No
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.40 – ¥53.14 · fair‑value band ¥1.87 – ¥4.87 · the ¥6.63 price screens above the ¥3.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.
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Mubang High-Tech Co.,Ltd. engages in production and sales of monocrystalline silicon rods and silicon wafers, and educational toys business in China.
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The company offers solar monocrystalline silicon wafers; and educational toys are mainly plastic building block toys, including popular science series, programming robot series, city series, infant series and IP licensing series. The company was founded in 2003 and is based in Nanchang, China.
Stock analysis
Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd (603398) currently trades at ¥6.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.40, 48.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 3 models at a data quality of 92/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: ¥1.87 (bear) to ¥4.87 (bull), the price of ¥6.63 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 25/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd reported revenue of 389M CNY in FY2025 versus 322M CNY in FY2021, a compound +4.8%/yr. Reported net income was −820M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 2.9B CNY (≈ $432M) Small · P/S ratio 8.73 · EPS (TTM) ¥−1.91 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Return on equity −274% · Return on assets (EBIT) −14.8% · Operating margin −163% · Revenue (TTM) 416M CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 5 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 24% fair-value upside, at −49%, 603398 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥1.87Fair Value ¥3.40Bull¥4.87
Price ¥6.63 · Upside -48.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+40.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−25.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.3% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
10.0% (2020) → −77.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 174 stocks
Beats the industry median on 0/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score25 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−48.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets−28.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−198.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−163.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−20.3% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)6.91× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 40
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 24
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)8· sector 55
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603398
Frequently asked questions
Is Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd (603398) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 26, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥3.40 versus a price of ¥6.63, about −49% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603398?
Our model-based fair value for Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd is ¥3.40 (as of Oct 26, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥6.63.
What is the quality score of 603398?
Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 25/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd (603398)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥3.40 (as of Oct 26, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥1.87, optimistic scenario ¥4.87. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥3.40, about −49% upside versus a price of ¥6.63 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥1.87, optimistic scenario ¥4.87. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd (603398)?
Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 416M CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 26, 2026).
Does Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.40% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 26, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd (603398)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd it is ¥3.40 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026), against a price of ¥6.63. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 26, 2026, 603398 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥6.63, fair value ¥3.40, a gap of about −49% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603398?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥6.63); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥3.40). For Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd the two are ¥3.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd worth?
The market values Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd at about 2.9B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 26, 2026). Per share that is ¥6.63; our models calculate a fair value of ¥3.40 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603398?
Our models span a range for Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥1.87, base ¥3.40, optimistic ¥4.87 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026, price ¥6.63). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd (603398)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd (as of Oct 26, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 25/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603398 from its 52-week high?
Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd trades at ¥6.63, about 57% below its 52-week high of ¥15.29 and 2% above the low of ¥6.50 (as of Oct 26, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥3.40 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Pop Mart International Group, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, Life Time Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 26, 2026: price ¥6.63, calculated fair value ¥3.40 (−49%), Quality Score 25/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603398 calculated?
We run Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥3.40, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd (603398)?
The closing price on Oct 26, 2026 was ¥6.63. Our model-based fair value is ¥3.40, about −49% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥4.87). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (25/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (¥1.87 to ¥4.87). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd (603398)?
The market capitalisation of Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd is 2.9B CNY (≈ $432M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd (603398)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd is 8.73 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd (603398)?
Earnings per share at Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd are ¥−1.91. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd (603398)?
The dividend yield of Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd is 0.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the return on equity of Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd (603398)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd is −274% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd (603398)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd is −14.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd (603398)?
The operating margin of Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd is −163% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd (603398)?
Revenue at Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd is growing −20.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −25.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd (603398)?
Earnings per share at Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd are growing +497% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd (603398) generate?
The free cash flow of Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd is −257M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd (603398) carry?
The net debt of Guangdong Banbao Toy Co Ltd is 298M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 26, 2026