Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd (603768) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd ¥8.68, price ¥11.57, upside -25.0%, quality 26 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥9.13 – ¥28.22 · fair‑value band ¥4.66 – ¥12.34 · the ¥11.57 price screens above the ¥8.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Changqing Machinery Company Limited produces and sells stamping and welding parts for automobile parts primarily in China. The company offers powertrain, chassis, and body products and accessories; and electronic appliances, molds, and general parts. Its products are used in passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and other vehicles.
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Changqing Machinery Company Limited produces and sells stamping and welding parts for automobile parts primarily in China. The company offers powertrain, chassis, and body products and accessories; and electronic appliances, molds, and general parts. Its products are used in passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and other vehicles. Changqing Machinery Company Limited was founded in 2004 and is based in Hefei, China.
Stock analysis
Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd (603768) currently trades at ¥11.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥8.68, implying the stock looks roughly 33.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥6.16 per share, and 1 of the 8 models we run sit above the ¥11.57 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥0.8800, and 7 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥4.66 (bear) to ¥12.34 (bull), the price of ¥11.57 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 26/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd reported revenue of 3.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound +4.0%/yr. Reported net income was −205M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 2.8B CNY (≈ $411M) · P/S ratio 0.73 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.8600 · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin −5.8% · Return on equity −8.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.9% · Operating margin 7.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −25%, 603768 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥4.66Fair Value ¥8.68Bull ¥12.34
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.32/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.0% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.8% (2020) → 1.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 692 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score26 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−25% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth13% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.31× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.19× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.11× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA2.6× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 24
FUTURE (revenue growth)66· sector 21
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)85· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)51· sector 38
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603768
Frequently asked questions
Is Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd (603768) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥8.68 versus a price of ¥11.57, about −25% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603768?
Our model-based fair value for Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd is ¥8.68 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥11.57.
What is the quality score of 603768?
Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 26/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd (603768)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥8.68 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥4.66, optimistic scenario ¥12.34. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥8.68, about −25% upside versus a price of ¥11.57 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥4.66, optimistic scenario ¥12.34. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd (603768)?
Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.55% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd (603768)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd it is ¥8.68 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥11.57. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 603768 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥11.57, fair value ¥8.68, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603768?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥11.57); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥8.68). For Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd the two are ¥2.89 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd worth?
The market values Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd at about 2.8B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥11.57; our models calculate a fair value of ¥8.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603768?
Our models span a range for Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥4.66, base ¥8.68, optimistic ¥12.34 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥11.57). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd (603768)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −8.8%, debt of 0.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 26/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603768 from its 52-week high?
Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd trades at ¥11.57, about 10% below its 52-week high of ¥12.81 and 27% above the low of ¥9.13 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥8.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥11.57, calculated fair value ¥8.68 (−25%), Quality Score 26/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603768 calculated?
We run Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥8.68, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd (603768)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was ¥11.57. Our model-based fair value is ¥8.68, about −25% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd right now?
Weak quality (26/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (¥4.66 to ¥12.34). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd (603768) come from?
Earnings per share at Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd grew −3.2 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.1 %, EBIT margin −10.3 %, tax rate +1.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd (603768)?
The market capitalisation of Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd is 2.8B CNY (≈ $411M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd (603768)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd is 0.73 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd (603768)?
Earnings per share at Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd are ¥−0.8600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd (603768)?
The dividend yield of Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd is 2.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd (603768)?
The net margin of Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd is −5.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd (603768)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd is −8.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd (603768)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd is 1.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd (603768)?
The operating margin of Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd is 7.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd (603768)?
Revenue at Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd is growing +13.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd (603768) generate?
The free cash flow of Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd is −322M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd (603768) carry?
The net debt of Hefei Changqing Machinery Co Ltd is 1.1B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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