Changqing Machinery Company (603768) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 2.5B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 8 valuation models · updated 30 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 11, 2026, revised from ¥6.25 to ¥12.50 (+100.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +15.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 10% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range (¥9.20 to ¥21.58) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from ¥9.20 (bear) to ¥21.58 (bull), base ¥12.50. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 26/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥9.25 – ¥28.22 · fair‑value band ¥9.20 – ¥21.58 · the ¥11.35 price screens below the ¥12.50 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Changqing Machinery Company (603768) currently trades at ¥11.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥12.50, implying the stock looks roughly 10.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 26/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Changqing Machinery Company generated revenue of 3.6B CNY at a net margin of -5.6%. Revenue grew 13.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -8.8%. Net debt stands at 1.1B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥9.20 (bear case) to ¥21.58 (bull case); at ¥11.35, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -44% fair-value upside, at 10%, 603768 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 8 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (¥6.16) versus Earnings-Based (¥1.16). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 25 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Changqing Machinery Company Limited produces and sells stamping and welding parts for automobile parts primarily in China. The company offers powertrain, chassis, and body products and accessories; and electronic appliances, molds, and general parts. Its products are used in passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and other vehicles.
Full company description
Changqing Machinery Company Limited produces and sells stamping and welding parts for automobile parts primarily in China. The company offers powertrain, chassis, and body products and accessories; and electronic appliances, molds, and general parts. Its products are used in passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and other vehicles. Changqing Machinery Company Limited was founded in 2004 and is based in Hefei, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Changqing Machinery Company reported revenue of ¥3.5B in FY2025 versus ¥3.0B in FY2021, a compound +4.0%/yr. Reported net income was −¥205M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +11.0 pp · buybacks/dilution −3.9 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Auto Parts · 642 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hyundai Mobis Co 012330 | 482,000 KRW | 678,420 KRW | +41% |
| Magna International Inc MGAN | 1,122 MXN | 1,172 MXN | +4% |
| Samvardhana Motherson International Limited MOTHERSON | ₹144.17 | ₹80.63 | -44% |
| Bosch Limited BOSCHLTD | ₹41,110 | ₹14,004 | -66% |
| Bharat Forge Limited BHARATFORG | ₹2,117 | ₹441.74 | -79% |
| Uno Minda Limited UNOMINDA | ₹1,158 | ₹426.57 | -63% |
| Schaeffler India Limited SCHAEFFLER | ₹4,135 | ₹1,412 | -66% |
| Hankook Tire & Technology Co 161390 | 73,600 KRW | 196,479 KRW | +167% |
| MRF Limited MRF | ₹131,025 | ₹125,849 | -4% |
| Sona BLW Precision Forgings Limited SONACOMS | ₹792.00 | ₹207.06 | -74% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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