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Chengdu Haoneng Technology Co (603809) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 9.2B CNY

CH Chengdu Haoneng Technology Co 603809 · SHG
Price¥9.38
Fair Value¥5.64
Upside-39.9%
Quality29/100
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Expensive Growth
Solidly profitable · 10.0% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
1.43% dividend yield
Trails peers (5/13)
Moderate moat 48/100
Evidence: High Range ¥4.22 – ¥7.04 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 30 days ago

Share price +5.9% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 40% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥7.04). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥17.44 ¥3.77 Fair Value ¥5.64 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥3.77 – ¥17.44 · fair‑value band ¥4.22 – ¥7.04 · the ¥9.38 price screens above the ¥5.64 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

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Analysis

Chengdu Haoneng Technology Co (603809) currently trades at ¥9.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.64, implying the stock looks roughly 39.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Chengdu Haoneng Technology Co generated revenue of 2.8B CNY at a net margin of 10.0%. Revenue grew 11.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.0%. Net debt stands at 1.5B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥4.22 (bear case) to ¥7.04 (bull case); at ¥9.38, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -44% fair-value upside, at -40%, 603809 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income ¥3.26 ¥3.46 ¥3.73 76
ROIC Compounder ¥3.35 ¥4.15 ¥5.70 72
Gordon GGM ¥1.74 ¥3.47 ¥5.26 70
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥2.05 ¥13.24 ¥18.52 54
Lynch FV ¥3.84 ¥5.49 ¥7.14 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥3.84 ¥5.49 ¥7.14 46
EPV ¥3.35 ¥4.05 ¥4.66 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥1.74 ¥3.47 ¥5.26 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥1.74 ¥3.00 ¥3.67 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥4.97 ¥6.63 ¥8.28 63
P/S Multiple ¥2.63 ¥3.51 ¥4.38 58
P/B Multiple ¥3.84 ¥5.12 ¥6.40 55
EV/EBIT ¥6.35 ¥8.84 ¥11.34 53
EV/EBITDA ¥7.25 ¥10.04 ¥12.83 54
EV/Revenue ¥1.32 ¥2.38 ¥3.43 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥1.99 ¥2.67 ¥3.98 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥3.26 ¥3.46 ¥3.73 76
ROIC Compounder ¥3.35 ¥4.15 ¥5.70 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥5.53 ¥7.90 ¥10.27 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥7.90) versus Asset-Based (¥2.67). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 2.8B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +11.0%
Net margin 10.0%
Return on equity 8.0%
Free cash flow −699M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 32.2
More key figures
Operating margin 19.4%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.3100
Dividend yield 1.4%
EPS growth (YoY) -0.9%
Net debt 1.5B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 29/100

Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24

Profitability 33
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 54
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 22
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 57
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 9
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 67
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 10
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 1
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Chengdu Haoneng Technology Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, production, and sale of automotive transmission system components in China and internationally. It offers synchronizer rings, such as copper synchronizer rings, stamped steel rings, and precision forged steel rings; gear hubs, gear sleeves, coupling gears, and synchronizer assemblies.

Full company description

Chengdu Haoneng Technology Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, production, and sale of automotive transmission system components in China and internationally. It offers synchronizer rings, such as copper synchronizer rings, stamped steel rings, and precision forged steel rings; gear hubs, gear sleeves, coupling gears, and synchronizer assemblies. The company also sells aerospace parts, including aircraft nose, fuselage, wings, and tail section for use in various types of military aircraft, civil aircraft and unmanned aerial vehicles. The company was founded in 2006 and is based in Chengdu, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Chengdu Haoneng Technology Co reported revenue of ¥2.7B in FY2025 versus ¥1.4B in FY2021, a compound +16.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥277M in FY2025, compounding +8.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 57/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
2.7B CNY
Latest YoY
+14.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+22.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+18.1%
Avg. growth/yr (13Y)
+16.0%
Revenue +16.8%/yr
FY21 ¥1.4B
FY22 ¥1.5B
FY23 ¥1.9B
FY24 ¥2.4B
FY25 ¥2.7B
Net income +8.6%/yr
FY21 ¥200M
FY22 ¥211M
FY23 ¥182M
FY24 ¥322M
FY25 ¥277M

603809 screens 40% overvalued. Compare with Hyundai Mobis Co →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chengdu Haoneng Technology Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603809

Peer Group

Auto Parts · 642 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 29 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −40% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 10% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 19% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 11% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.4% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.36× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 32.2× · Pricier than median
P/B 2.50× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 3.33× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 12.7× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 17
FUTURE 55 · sector 23
PAST 32 · sector 26
HEALTH 82 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 29 · sector 30

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Hyundai Mobis Co 012330 482,000 KRW 678,420 KRW +41%
Magna International Inc MGAN 1,122 MXN 1,172 MXN +4%
Samvardhana Motherson International Limited MOTHERSON ₹144.17 ₹80.63 -44%
Bosch Limited BOSCHLTD ₹41,110 ₹14,004 -66%
Bharat Forge Limited BHARATFORG ₹2,117 ₹441.74 -79%
Uno Minda Limited UNOMINDA ₹1,158 ₹426.57 -63%
Schaeffler India Limited SCHAEFFLER ₹4,135 ₹1,412 -66%
Hankook Tire & Technology Co 161390 73,600 KRW 196,479 KRW +167%
MRF Limited MRF ₹131,025 ₹125,849 -4%
Sona BLW Precision Forgings Limited SONACOMS ₹792.00 ₹207.06 -74%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Chengdu Haoneng Technology Co (603809) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥5.64 versus a price of ¥9.38, about −40% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603809?
Our model-based fair value for Chengdu Haoneng Technology Co is ¥5.64 (as of Jul 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥9.38.
What is the quality score of 603809?
Chengdu Haoneng Technology Co has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Chengdu Haoneng Technology Co (603809)?
Chengdu Haoneng Technology Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.8B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 11, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 603809?
The net profit margin of Chengdu Haoneng Technology Co is about 10.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 10.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Chengdu Haoneng Technology Co pay a dividend?
Chengdu Haoneng Technology Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.43% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 11, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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