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Tabuk Agriculture Development Co (6040) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 18, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tabuk Agriculture Development Co stock SAR 7.60, price SAR 36.16, upside -79.0%, quality 34 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Consumer Defensive · SA · ISIN SA0007879592

TA Tabuk Agriculture Development Co logo Thin data Oct 4, 2026

Tabuk Agriculture Development Co

6040 · SR

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

Our calculation puts a fair price 79% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Mixed Growth (revenue YoY −24.8 %/yr in SAR)
Fair value 7.60 SAR · Strongly overvalued (−79.0%)
Quality 34/100
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (0/9)
Narrow moat 16/100
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

219.84 SAR 5.80 SAR Fair Value 7.60 SAR May 2020 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 5.80 SAR – 219.84 SAR · fair‑value band 5.67 SAR – 11.34 SAR · the 36.16 SAR price screens above the 7.60 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.

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Company profile

Tabuk Agricultural Development Company engages in agricultural production, manufacturing, and marketing of plant products in Saudi Arabia. The company operates through the Feeds, Vegetable, Fruit, Grains, and Other Products segments.

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It offers fruits and vegetables, wheat and wheat derivatives, and olive oil and livestock.

The company also engages in the manufacturing of feeds; planting vegetables and seasonal fruits; grain trading; production of olive oil, honey, and other products; and management and leasing of owned or leased real estate residential and non-residential.

Tabuk Agricultural Development Company was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Tabuk, Saudi Arabia.

Stock analysis

Tabuk Agriculture Development Co (6040) currently trades at 36.16 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 7.60 SAR, 79.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 3 models at a data quality of 94/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: 5.67 SAR (bear) to 11.34 SAR (bull), the price of 36.16 SAR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.

Tabuk Agriculture Development Co reported revenue of 35.6M SAR in FY2025 versus 119M SAR in FY2021, a compound −26.1%/yr. Reported net income was −95.9M SAR in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 293M SAR (≈ $78.1M) Micro · P/S ratio 25.1 · EPS (TTM) −12.03 SAR · Dividend yield 0.0% · Return on equity −83.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −15.2% · Operating margin −1,026% · Revenue growth (YoY) −92.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 16 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 523% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −79%, 6040 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 5.67 SAR Fair Value 7.60 SAR Bull 11.34 SAR
Price 36.16 SAR · Upside -79.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Gordon GGM 7.60 SAR 7.60 SAR 8.69 SAR 69
DDM Multi-Stage 7.60 SAR 8.69 SAR 9.77 SAR 67
NCAV (Graham) 615.60 SAR 825.14 SAR 1,231 SAR 54
All 3 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 7.60 SAR 7.60 SAR 8.69 SAR 69
DDM Multi-Stage 7.60 SAR 8.69 SAR 9.77 SAR 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 615.60 SAR 825.14 SAR 1,231 SAR 54

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 34/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 29
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 21
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 97
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 53
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 32
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 83
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−22.6% (2020) → −303.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

6040 screens overvalued: fair value 79% below the price. Compare with Archer-Daniels-Midland Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 293 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 34 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −79.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −29.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −92.7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.17× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.19× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 23.73× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 28
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 18
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)92 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 45

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Farm Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Muyuan Foods Group 002714 ¥41.78 ¥115.35 +176% vs 6040
Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company CPF 21.10 THB 55.71 THB +164% vs 6040
Fujian Wanchen Food Group 300972 ¥160.91 ¥254.63 +58% vs 6040
Mowi ASA MOWI kr 206.60 kr 276.65 +34% vs 6040
United Plantations Berhad 2089 30.60 MYR 33.66 MYR +10% vs 6040
Wens Foodstuff Group 300498 ¥15.14 ¥12.08 −20% vs 6040
Tyson Foods, Inc TSN $53.57 $37.06 −31% vs 6040
Bunge Global SA BG $104.22 $56.75 −46% vs 6040
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company ADM $79.89 $38.02 −52% vs 6040
SalMar ASA SALM kr 554.00 kr 171.05 −69% vs 6040

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Tabuk Agriculture Development Co · Fair Value
7.60 SAR −79%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tabuk Agriculture Development Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6040

Frequently asked questions

Is Tabuk Agriculture Development Co (6040) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 7.60 SAR versus a price of 36.16 SAR, about −79% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 6040?
Our model-based fair value for Tabuk Agriculture Development Co is 7.60 SAR (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 36.16 SAR.
What is the quality score of 6040?
Tabuk Agriculture Development Co has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tabuk Agriculture Development Co (6040)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 7.60 SAR (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario 5.67 SAR, optimistic scenario 11.34 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tabuk Agriculture Development Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 7.60 SAR, about −79% upside versus a price of 36.16 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 5.67 SAR, optimistic scenario 11.34 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Tabuk Agriculture Development Co pay a dividend?
Tabuk Agriculture Development Co currently shows a dividend yield of 0.02% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tabuk Agriculture Development Co (6040)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tabuk Agriculture Development Co it is 7.60 SAR per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of 36.16 SAR. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tabuk Agriculture Development Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, 6040 trades above its calculated fair value: price 36.16 SAR, fair value 7.60 SAR, a gap of about −79% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 6040?
No. The price is what the market pays today (36.16 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (7.60 SAR). For Tabuk Agriculture Development Co the two are 28.56 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tabuk Agriculture Development Co worth?
The market values Tabuk Agriculture Development Co at about 293M SAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is 36.16 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 7.60 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 6040?
Our models span a range for Tabuk Agriculture Development Co: cautious scenario 5.67 SAR, base 7.60 SAR, optimistic 11.34 SAR per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price 36.16 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tabuk Agriculture Development Co (6040)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tabuk Agriculture Development Co (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity −83.2%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 6040 from its 52-week high?
Tabuk Agriculture Development Co trades at 36.16 SAR, about 32% below its 52-week high of 53.42 SAR and 523% above the low of 5.80 SAR (as of Oct 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 7.60 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tabuk Agriculture Development Co?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Muyuan Foods Group, Bunge Global SA, Tyson Foods, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tabuk Agriculture Development Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price 36.16 SAR, calculated fair value 7.60 SAR (−79%), Quality Score 34/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 6040 calculated?
We run Tabuk Agriculture Development Co through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 7.60 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Tabuk Agriculture Development Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tabuk Agriculture Development Co (6040)?
The closing price on Oct 18, 2026 was 36.16 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 7.60 SAR, about −79% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tabuk Agriculture Development Co right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (11.34 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (5.67 SAR to 11.34 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Tabuk Agriculture Development Co

How large is the market capitalisation of Tabuk Agriculture Development Co (6040)?
The market capitalisation of Tabuk Agriculture Development Co is 293M SAR (≈ $78.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tabuk Agriculture Development Co (6040)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tabuk Agriculture Development Co is 25.1 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tabuk Agriculture Development Co (6040)?
Earnings per share at Tabuk Agriculture Development Co are −12.03 SAR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tabuk Agriculture Development Co (6040)?
The dividend yield of Tabuk Agriculture Development Co is 0.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the return on equity of Tabuk Agriculture Development Co (6040)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tabuk Agriculture Development Co is −83.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tabuk Agriculture Development Co (6040)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tabuk Agriculture Development Co is −15.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tabuk Agriculture Development Co (6040)?
The operating margin of Tabuk Agriculture Development Co is −1,026% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tabuk Agriculture Development Co (6040)?
Revenue at Tabuk Agriculture Development Co is growing −92.7% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tabuk Agriculture Development Co (6040)?
Earnings per share at Tabuk Agriculture Development Co are growing +23.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Tabuk Agriculture Development Co (6040) generate?
The free cash flow of Tabuk Agriculture Development Co is −16.9M SAR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Tabuk Agriculture Development Co (6040) carry?
The net debt of Tabuk Agriculture Development Co is 81.9M SAR (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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