Axcen Photonics (6530) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Axcen Photonics TWD 41.44, price TWD 100, upside -58.6%, quality 82 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 14.29 TWD – 133.50 TWD · fair‑value band 31.55 TWD – 53.87 TWD · the 100.00 TWD price screens above the 41.44 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Axcen Photonics Corporation research and development, production, and sales of optical equipment and telecommunications equipment in Taiwan. The company offers 25G SFP28, Video SFP, CSFP, 10G SFP+, 1x9, SFP, Copper SFP, BIDI SFP, BIDI 1x9, 2x5 SFF, GEPON SFF, and CWDM SFP.
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Axcen Photonics Corporation research and development, production, and sales of optical equipment and telecommunications equipment in Taiwan. The company offers 25G SFP28, Video SFP, CSFP, 10G SFP+, 1x9, SFP, Copper SFP, BIDI SFP, BIDI 1x9, 2x5 SFF, GEPON SFF, and CWDM SFP. It also provides application design, testing, maintenance and technical consulting services. Axcen Photonics Corporation was founded in 2002 and is based in New Taipei City, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
Axcen Photonics (6530) currently trades at 100.00 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 41.44 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 141.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 43.61 TWD per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the 100.00 TWD price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 9.65 TWD, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 31.55 TWD (bear) to 53.87 TWD (bull), the price of 100.00 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 82/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Axcen Photonics reported revenue of 328M TWD in FY2025 versus 271M TWD in FY2021, a compound +4.8%/yr. Reported net income was 65.8M TWD in FY2025, compounding +15.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.4B TWD (≈ $106M) · P/E ratio 41.7 · P/S ratio 8.37 · EPS (TTM) 2.40 TWD · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 20.1% · Return on equity 17.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 89% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −62% fair-value upside, at −59%, 6530 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 31.55 TWDFair Value 41.44 TWDBull 53.87 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.2937 TWD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+22.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+20.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.21% vs 6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 24%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.9%/yr over ~7Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+27.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +25.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Communication Equipment · 316 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score82 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−59% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)18% · Top 25%
Return on assets9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)23% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)27% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth17% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.0% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)41.7× · Pricier than median
P/B6.95× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)9.52× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF1.4× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA31.1× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)85· sector 37
PAST (return on equity)72· sector 15
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)40· sector 23
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Axcen Photonics Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6530
Frequently asked questions
Is Axcen Photonics (6530) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 41.44 TWD versus a price of 100.00 TWD, about −59% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 6530?
Our model-based fair value for Axcen Photonics is 41.44 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 100.00 TWD.
What is the quality score of 6530?
Axcen Photonics has a Quality Score of 82/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Axcen Photonics (6530)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 41.44 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 31.55 TWD, optimistic scenario 53.87 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Axcen Photonics stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 41.44 TWD, about −59% upside versus a price of 100.00 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 31.55 TWD, optimistic scenario 53.87 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Axcen Photonics (6530)?
Axcen Photonics reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 355M TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Axcen Photonics pay a dividend?
Axcen Photonics currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.00% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Axcen Photonics (6530)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Axcen Photonics would have to grow free cash flow by +27.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 6530 use?
Our models discount Axcen Photonics at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.49, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Axcen Photonics that is +27.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Axcen Photonics (6530) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Axcen Photonics grew +5.6 % a year. The price currently implies +27.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Axcen Photonics (6530) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Axcen Photonics (+27.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Axcen Photonics (6530)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.26 %: that much free cash flow Axcen Photonics produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Axcen Photonics (6530)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Axcen Photonics it is 41.44 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 100.00 TWD. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Axcen Photonics stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 6530 trades above its calculated fair value: price 100.00 TWD, fair value 41.44 TWD, a gap of about −59% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 6530?
No. The price is what the market pays today (100.00 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (41.44 TWD). For Axcen Photonics the two are 58.56 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Axcen Photonics worth?
The market values Axcen Photonics at about 3.4B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 100.00 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 41.44 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 6530?
Our models span a range for Axcen Photonics: cautious scenario 31.55 TWD, base 41.44 TWD, optimistic 53.87 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 100.00 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 6530?
Axcen Photonics trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 41.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 41.44 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 7.0, P/S 9.5, EV/EBITDA 31.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Axcen Photonics (6530)?
Balance-sheet figures for Axcen Photonics (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 17.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 82/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 6530 from its 52-week high?
Axcen Photonics trades at 100.00 TWD, about 25% below its 52-week high of 133.50 TWD and 89% above the low of 52.80 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 41.44 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Axcen Photonics?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Cisco Systems, Inc, Zhongji Innolight Co, Foxconn Industrial Internet Co, Eoptolink Technology Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Axcen Photonics stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 100.00 TWD, calculated fair value 41.44 TWD (−59%), Quality Score 82/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 6530 calculated?
We run Axcen Photonics through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 41.44 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Axcen Photonics itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Axcen Photonics (6530)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 100.00 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 41.44 TWD, about −59% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Axcen Photonics right now?
A high-quality business (quality 82/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (53.87 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Key figures of Axcen Photonics
How large is the market capitalisation of Axcen Photonics (6530)?
The market capitalisation of Axcen Photonics is 3.4B TWD (≈ $106M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Axcen Photonics (6530)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Axcen Photonics is 8.37 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Axcen Photonics (6530)?
Earnings per share at Axcen Photonics are 2.40 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 41.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Axcen Photonics (6530)?
The dividend yield of Axcen Photonics is 2.0% (payout 83.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Axcen Photonics (6530)?
The net margin of Axcen Photonics is 20.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Axcen Photonics (6530)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Axcen Photonics is 17.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Axcen Photonics (6530)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Axcen Photonics is 10.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Axcen Photonics (6530)?
The operating margin of Axcen Photonics is 27.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Axcen Photonics (6530)?
Revenue at Axcen Photonics is growing +16.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Axcen Photonics (6530)?
Earnings per share at Axcen Photonics are growing +77.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Axcen Photonics (6530) hold?
Axcen Photonics holds more cash than debt, 341M TWD net (fiscal year 2023). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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