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Axcen Photonics Corporation (6530) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · TW · Market cap 2.5B TWD

AP Axcen Photonics Corporation 6530 · TWO
Price82.50 TWD
Fair Value39.01 TWD
Upside-52.7%
Quality82/100
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Healthy Growth
Highly profitable · 21.1% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
2.74% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (9/14)
Wide moat 73/100
Evidence: High Range 29.26 TWD – 48.76 TWD Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 23, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 18 days ago

Share price −0.6% over the past month.

A strong business, but screening 53% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • A high-quality business (quality 82/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (48.76 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

133.50 TWD 14.29 TWD Fair Value 39.01 TWD Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 14.29 TWD – 133.50 TWD · fair‑value band 29.26 TWD – 48.76 TWD · the 82.50 TWD price screens above the 39.01 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 23, 2026.

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Analysis

Axcen Photonics Corporation (6530) currently trades at 82.50 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 39.01 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 52.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 82/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Axcen Photonics Corporation generated revenue of 328M TWD at a net margin of 20.1%. Revenue grew 10.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 341M TWD. Fundamentals as of Jul 23, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 29.26 TWD (bear case) to 48.76 TWD (bull case); at 82.50 TWD, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 76% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -61% fair-value upside, at -53%, 6530 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 35.86 TWD 43.39 TWD 54.47 TWD 80
Residual Income 13.72 TWD 16.19 TWD 27.11 TWD 76
Rev-Margin DCF 31.24 TWD 39.25 TWD 48.45 TWD 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 35.15 TWD 43.05 TWD 55.39 TWD 38
Owner Earnings 34.42 TWD 42.06 TWD 54.00 TWD 31
5Y Revenue Exit 31.24 TWD 38.86 TWD 48.91 TWD 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 35.28 TWD 45.84 TWD 58.51 TWD 41
5Y P/E Exit 37.12 TWD 49.02 TWD 61.80 TWD 38
10Y Revenue Exit 32.14 TWD 38.99 TWD 46.90 TWD 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 35.04 TWD 43.53 TWD 53.36 TWD 37
10Y P/E Exit 36.15 TWD 45.60 TWD 55.57 TWD 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 13.26 TWD 25.29 TWD 31.51 TWD 54
EPV 31.56 TWD 34.50 TWD 37.03 TWD 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 13.61 TWD 18.41 TWD 23.14 TWD 70
DDM Multi-Stage 13.61 TWD 18.60 TWD 24.25 TWD 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 29.26 TWD 39.01 TWD 48.76 TWD 63
P/S Multiple 18.21 TWD 24.28 TWD 30.35 TWD 58
P/B Multiple 24.87 TWD 33.16 TWD 41.45 TWD 55
EV/EBIT 44.79 TWD 55.39 TWD 65.99 TWD 53
EV/EBITDA 38.80 TWD 47.40 TWD 56.00 TWD 54
EV/Revenue 29.99 TWD 37.28 TWD 44.56 TWD 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 7.20 TWD 9.65 TWD 14.40 TWD 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 35.86 TWD 43.39 TWD 54.47 TWD 80
Rev-Margin DCF 31.24 TWD 39.25 TWD 48.45 TWD 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 13.72 TWD 16.19 TWD 27.11 TWD 76
ROIC Compounder 31.69 TWD 34.79 TWD 37.55 TWD 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 21.00 TWD 30.00 TWD 39.00 TWD 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (43.05 TWD) versus Asset-Based (9.65 TWD). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 341M TWD
Revenue growth (YoY) +16.7%
Net margin 21.1%
Return on equity 14.5%
Free cash flow 76.4M TWD FY2025
P/E ratio 37.4
More key figures
Operating margin 27.4%
EPS (TTM) 1.94 TWD
Dividend yield 2.7%
EPS growth (YoY) +39.2%
Net cash 341M TWD FY2023

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 23, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 82/100

Of which business quality 79 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58

Profitability 58
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 58
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 81
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 63
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 61
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 84
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Axcen Photonics Corporation research and development, production, and sales of optical equipment and telecommunications equipment in Taiwan. The company offers 25G SFP28, Video SFP, CSFP, 10G SFP+, 1x9, SFP, Copper SFP, BIDI SFP, BIDI 1x9, 2x5 SFF, GEPON SFF, and CWDM SFP.

Full company description

Axcen Photonics Corporation research and development, production, and sales of optical equipment and telecommunications equipment in Taiwan. The company offers 25G SFP28, Video SFP, CSFP, 10G SFP+, 1x9, SFP, Copper SFP, BIDI SFP, BIDI 1x9, 2x5 SFF, GEPON SFF, and CWDM SFP. It also provides application design, testing, maintenance and technical consulting services. Axcen Photonics Corporation was founded in 2002 and is based in New Taipei City, Taiwan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Axcen Photonics Corporation reported revenue of 328M TWD in FY2025 versus 271M TWD in FY2021, a compound +4.8%/yr. Reported net income was 65.8M TWD in FY2025, compounding +15.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
328M TWD
Latest YoY
+16.7%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.6%
Avg. growth/yr (9Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−1.9%
Revenue +4.8%/yr
FY21 271M TWD
FY22 274M TWD
FY23 252M TWD
FY24 281M TWD
FY25 328M TWD
Net income +15.7%/yr
FY21 36.7M TWD
FY22 53.8M TWD
FY23 42.2M TWD
FY24 55.4M TWD
FY25 65.8M TWD

6530 screens 53% overvalued. Compare with Cisco Systems, Inc →

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Axcen Photonics Corporation · Fair Value
39.01 TWD −53%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Axcen Photonics Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6530

Peer Group

Communication Equipment · 286 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 82 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −53% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 14% · Top 25%
Return on assets 9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 21% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 27% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 17% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.7% · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 37.4× · Pricier than median
P/B 5.04× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 7.19× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 1.0× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 22.4× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 84 · sector 30
PAST 58 · sector 15
HEALTH 100 · sector 98
DIVIDEND 55 · sector 25

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Communication Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 23, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Cisco Systems, Inc CSCO $119.25 $43.05 -64%
Zhongji Innolight Co 300308 ¥1,094 ¥171.09 -84%
Foxconn Industrial Internet Co 601138 ¥56.50 ¥28.65 -49%
Eoptolink Technology Inc 300502 ¥482.88 ¥155.05 -68%
Nokia Oyj NOK $11.25 $2.67 -76%
Motorola Solutions, Inc MSI $413.31 $190.43 -54%
Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co 300394 ¥244.13 ¥32.04 -87%
Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ), ERIC $11.72 $15.96 +36%
Accton Technology Corporation 2345 2,090 TWD 846.28 TWD -60%
ZTE Corporation 000063 ¥40.00 ¥15.75 -61%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Axcen Photonics Corporation (6530) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 39.01 TWD versus a price of 82.50 TWD, about −53% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 6530?
Our model-based fair value for Axcen Photonics Corporation is 39.01 TWD (as of Jul 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 82.50 TWD.
What is the quality score of 6530?
Axcen Photonics Corporation has a Quality Score of 82/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Axcen Photonics Corporation (6530)?
Axcen Photonics Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 328M TWD (latest available figure, as of Jul 23, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 6530?
The net profit margin of Axcen Photonics Corporation is about 20.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 20.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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