Phancy Group (6682) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · HK · Market cap HK$12.4B
Fair value as of: Jul 5, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 36 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 5, 2026, revised from HK$15.43 to HK$10.69 (−30.7%) since Jul 2, 2026. Share price −2.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 64% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$13.37). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$7.06 to HK$13.37) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
34‑month range HK$20.05 – HK$75.50 · fair‑value band HK$7.06 – HK$13.37 · the HK$29.70 price screens above the HK$10.69 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 5, 2026.
Analysis
Phancy Group (6682) currently trades at HK$29.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$10.69, implying the stock looks roughly 64.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Phancy Group generated revenue of HK$7.1B at a net margin of -0.4%. Revenue grew 32.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -0.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$1.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$7.06 (bear case) to HK$13.37 (bull case); at HK$29.70, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -50% fair-value upside, at -64%, 6682 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 20
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Phancy Group Co., Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in operations of artificial intelligence (AI) platform in the People's Republic of China.
Full company description
Phancy Group Co., Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in operations of artificial intelligence (AI) platform in the People's Republic of China. The company offers 4ParadigmSage Platform, an enterprise Al business system; 4Paradigm SHIFT, a standardized solutions built on the Sage AI Platform, tailored to different industry business scenarios; and 4Paradigm AIGS, an AI software development platform. It is also involved in the research and development of technology; investment activities; provision of artificial intelligent platform and solutions in energy and power and manufacturing industries; and provision of digital operation and maintenance platform and solutions. The company was formerly known as Beijing Fourth Paradigm Technology Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Phancy Group Co., Ltd. in January 2026. Phancy Group Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Phancy Group reported revenue of HK$7.1B in FY2025 versus HK$2.0B in FY2021, a compound +37.1%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$26.3M in FY2025.
6682 screens 64% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →
Peer Group
Software - Infrastructure · 370 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | $384.00 | $274.17 | -29% |
| Oracle Corporation ORAC | C$9.08 | C$2.94 | -68% |
| Fortinet, Inc FTNT | $160.78 | $44.96 | -72% |
| Synopsys, Inc 1SNPS | €354.50 | €93.61 | -74% |
| Block, Inc XYZ | A$114.53 | A$70.69 | -38% |
| CoreWeave, Inc CRWV | $79.94 | $44.89 | -44% |
| Range Intelligent Computing Technology Group 300442 | ¥71.60 | ¥34.00 | -53% |
| Oracle Financial Services Software Limited OFSS | ₹11,651 | ₹5,821 | -50% |
| 360 Security Technology Inc 601360 | ¥9.64 | ¥5.05 | -48% |
| One97 Communications Limited PAYTM | ₹1,342 | ₹181.50 | -86% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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