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Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (6682) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech HK$12.15, price HK$27.68, upside -56.1%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Technology · HK

BF Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech

6682 · HK

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value HK$12.15 · Strongly overvalued (−56%)
!Quality 50/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +49.9 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -0.4% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (5/10)
!Narrow moat 11/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$75.50 HK$20.05 Fair Value HK$12.15 Sep 2023 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

36‑month range HK$20.05 – HK$75.50 · fair‑value band HK$8.02 – HK$15.19 · the HK$27.68 price screens above the HK$12.15 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Phancy Group Co., Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in operations of artificial intelligence (AI) platform in the People's Republic of China.

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Phancy Group Co., Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in operations of artificial intelligence (AI) platform in the People's Republic of China. The company offers 4ParadigmSage Platform, an enterprise Al business system; 4Paradigm SHIFT, a standardized solutions built on the Sage AI Platform, tailored to different industry business scenarios; and 4Paradigm AIGS, an AI software development platform. It is also involved in the research and development of technology; investment activities; provision of artificial intelligent platform and solutions in energy and power and manufacturing industries; and provision of digital operation and maintenance platform and solutions. The company was formerly known as Beijing Fourth Paradigm Technology Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Phancy Group Co., Ltd. in January 2026. Phancy Group Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

Stock analysis

Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (6682) currently trades at HK$27.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$12.15, implying the stock looks roughly 127.8% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 94/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: HK$8.02 (bear) to HK$15.19 (bull), the price of HK$27.68 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech reported revenue of 7.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound +37.1%/yr. Reported net income was −26.3M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$13.8B (≈ $1.8B) · P/S ratio 1.74 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.1400 · Net margin −0.4% · Return on equity −0.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −9.4% · Operating margin 0.0% · Revenue (TTM) 7.1B CNY.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 60% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −56%, 6682 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$8.02 Fair Value HK$12.15 Bull HK$15.19
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) HK$7.53 HK$10.09 HK$15.06 52
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$7.53 HK$10.09 HK$15.06 52

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 50/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29

Profitability 29
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 73
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 33
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 93
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 29
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 4
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 32
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+35.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+49.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−59.4% (2020) → −1.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

6682 screens 128% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 383 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 54 · Above median
Fair Value upside −56% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 33% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.02× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.23× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.25× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 16
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 48
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 18
HEALTH (low debt)99 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 33

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Microsoft Corporation MSFT $498.00 $547.80 +10%
Oracle Corporation ORCL $149.20 $117.84 −21%
Palantir Technologies Inc PLTR $184.99 $43.02 −77%
Palo Alto Networks, Inc PANW $374.57 $114.50 −69%
CrowdStrike Holdings CRWD $262.49 $35.15 −87%
Fortinet, Inc FTNT $178.74 $164.92 −8%
Synopsys, Inc SNPS $413.06 $250.04 −39%
Block, Inc XYZ $74.68 $101.29 +36%
CoreWeave, Inc CRWV $86.90 $71.79 −17%
NetApp, Inc NTAP $192.91 $157.18 −19%

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Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech · Fair Value
HK$12.15 −128%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6682

Frequently asked questions

Is Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (6682) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$12.15 versus a price of HK$27.68, about −56% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 6682?
Our model-based fair value for Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech is HK$12.15 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$27.68.
What is the quality score of 6682?
Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (6682)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$12.15 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$8.02, optimistic scenario HK$15.19. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$12.15, about −56% upside versus a price of HK$27.68 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$8.02, optimistic scenario HK$15.19. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (6682)?
Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 7.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (6682)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech it is HK$12.15 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$27.68. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 6682 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$27.68, fair value HK$12.15, a gap of about −56% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 6682?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$27.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$12.15). For Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech the two are HK$15.53 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech worth?
The market values Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech at about HK$13.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$27.68; our models calculate a fair value of HK$12.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 6682?
Our models span a range for Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech: cautious scenario HK$8.02, base HK$12.15, optimistic HK$15.19 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$27.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (6682)?
Balance-sheet figures for Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −0.6%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 6682 from its 52-week high?
Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech trades at HK$27.68, about 60% below its 52-week high of HK$69.35 and 16% above the low of HK$23.88 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$12.15 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$27.68, calculated fair value HK$12.15 (−56%), Quality Score 50/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 6682 calculated?
We run Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$12.15, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (6682)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$27.68. Our model-based fair value is HK$12.15, about −56% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$15.19). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (HK$8.02 to HK$15.19) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech

How large is the market capitalisation of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (6682)?
The market capitalisation of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech is HK$13.8B (≈ $1.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (6682)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech is 1.74 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (6682)?
Earnings per share at Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech are HK$−0.1400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (6682)?
The net margin of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech is −0.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (6682)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech is −0.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (6682)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech is −9.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (6682)?
The operating margin of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech is 0.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (6682)?
Revenue at Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech is growing +32.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +32.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (6682) generate?
The free cash flow of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech is −876M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (6682) hold?
Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech holds more cash than debt, 1.8B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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