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Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (6682) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech stock HK$11.47, price HK$20.70, that is 44.6% below the price, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Technology HK · Based in China

BF Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech logo Thin data Nov 6, 2026

Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech

6682 · HK
Very expensive, in a downtrend

Our calculation puts a fair price 45% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Revenue last quarter +43% vs. a year ago.
Quality 50/100
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +49.9 %/yr in CNY)
Thin margins · 1.9% net margin (TTM)
Fair value HK$11.47 · Strongly overvalued
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (4/11)
Narrow moat 24/100
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$75.50 HK$20.05 Fair Value HK$11.47 Sep 2023 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

37‑month range HK$20.05 – HK$75.50 · fair‑value band HK$7.57 – HK$14.34 · the HK$20.70 price screens above the HK$11.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.

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Company profile

Phancy Group Co., Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in operations of artificial intelligence (AI) platform in the People's Republic of China.

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The company offers 4ParadigmSage Platform, an enterprise Al business system; 4Paradigm SHIFT, a standardized solutions built on the Sage AI Platform, tailored to different industry business scenarios; and 4Paradigm AIGS, an AI software development platform.

It is also involved in the research and development of technology; investment activities; provision of artificial intelligent platform and solutions in energy and power and manufacturing industries; and provision of digital operation and maintenance platform and solutions.

The company was formerly known as Beijing Fourth Paradigm Technology Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Phancy Group Co., Ltd. in January 2026. Phancy Group Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

Stock analysis

Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (6682) currently trades at HK$20.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$11.47, 45% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: HK$7.57 (bear) to HK$14.34 (bull), the price of HK$20.70 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech reported revenue of 7.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound +37.1%/yr. Reported net income was −26.3M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$12.2B (≈ $1.6B) Small · P/E ratio 64.4 · P/S ratio 1.47 · Net margin 1.9% · Return on equity 2.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −9.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin −10.2% · Revenue (TTM) 8.3B CNY.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 24 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 65% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −45%, 6682 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$7.57 Fair Value HK$11.47 Bull HK$14.34
Price HK$20.70 · Downside -44.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) HK$7.57 HK$11.46 HK$14.33 53
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$7.57 HK$11.46 HK$14.33 53

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 50/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 29
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 73
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 33
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 93
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 67
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 4
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 0
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 8
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+35.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+49.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+77.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−59.4% (2020) → −1.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

6682 screens overvalued: fair value 45% below the price. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 346 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 50 · Below median
Fair Value upside −44.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 2.1% · Below median
Return on assets −0.3% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) 1.9% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) −10.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 43.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.02× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 64.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.38× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 1.25× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 23
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 60
PAST (return on equity)9 · sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)99 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 30

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Microsoft Corporation MSFT $530.61 $583.67 +10% vs 6682
Fortinet, Inc FTNT $118.84 $130.72 +10% vs 6682
Oracle Corporation ORCL $116.10 $111.97 −4% vs 6682
NetApp, Inc NTAP $169.19 $156.80 −7% vs 6682
Block, Inc XYZ $85.48 $76.43 −11% vs 6682
Synopsys, Inc SNPS $450.46 $288.23 −36% vs 6682
Zscaler, Inc ZS $197.66 $101.45 −49% vs 6682
Palantir Technologies Inc PLTR $160.38 $42.20 −74% vs 6682
CrowdStrike Holdings CRWD $216.90 $37.97 −82% vs 6682
Palo Alto Networks, Inc PANW $313.84 $39.54 −87% vs 6682

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Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6682

Frequently asked questions

Is Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (6682) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$11.47 versus a price of HK$20.70, about 45% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 6682?
Our model-based fair value for Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech is HK$11.47 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$20.70.
What is the quality score of 6682?
Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (6682)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$11.47 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$7.57, optimistic scenario HK$14.34. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$11.47, about 45% lower versus a price of HK$20.70 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$7.57, optimistic scenario HK$14.34. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (6682)?
Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 8.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (6682)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech it is HK$11.47 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of HK$20.70. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, 6682 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$20.70, fair value HK$11.47, a gap of about −45% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 6682?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$20.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$11.47). For Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech the two are HK$9.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech worth?
The market values Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech at about HK$12.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is HK$20.70; our models calculate a fair value of HK$11.47 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 6682?
Our models span a range for Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech: cautious scenario HK$7.57, base HK$11.47, optimistic HK$14.34 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price HK$20.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 6682?
Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 64.4 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$11.47 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 1.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (6682)?
Balance-sheet figures for Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 2.1%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 6682 from its 52-week high?
Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech trades at HK$20.70, about 65% below its 52-week high of HK$58.35 and at the low of HK$20.70 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$11.47 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price HK$20.70, calculated fair value HK$11.47 (−45%), Quality Score 50/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 6682 calculated?
We run Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of HK$11.47 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (6682)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was HK$20.70. Our model-based fair value is HK$11.47, about 45% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$14.34). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (HK$7.57 to HK$14.34) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech

How large is the market capitalisation of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (6682)?
The market capitalisation of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech is HK$12.2B (≈ $1.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (6682)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech is 1.47 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (6682)?
The net margin of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech is 1.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (6682)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech is 2.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (6682)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech is −9.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (6682)?
The operating margin of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech is −10.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (6682)?
Revenue at Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech is growing +43.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +32.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (6682) generate?
The free cash flow of Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech is −876M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech (6682) hold?
Beijing Fourth Paradigm Tech holds more cash than debt, 1.8B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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