KEDE Numerical Control Co (688305) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CN · Market cap 8.7B CNY

A solid business, but screening 76% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥17.53). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥52.00 – ¥146.78 · fair‑value band ¥10.52 – ¥17.53 · the ¥57.63 price screens above the ¥14.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

KEDE Numerical Control Co (688305) currently trades at ¥57.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥14.02, implying the stock looks roughly 75.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, KEDE Numerical Control Co generated revenue of 529M CNY at a net margin of 17.0%. Revenue declined 17.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 377M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥10.52 (bear case) to ¥17.53 (bull case); at ¥57.63, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -76%, 688305 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥22.89) versus Dividend Discount (¥2.85). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

KEDE Numerical Control Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets CNC systems and functional components in China. It offers five-axis vertical machining, mill-turn composite machining, gantry machining, tool grinding, horizontal machining, blade milling machining; other domestic high-end CNC machine tools; numerical control systems; servo drive systems; servo …

Full company description

KEDE Numerical Control Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets CNC systems and functional components in China. It offers five-axis vertical machining, mill-turn composite machining, gantry machining, tool grinding, horizontal machining, blade milling machining; other domestic high-end CNC machine tools; numerical control systems; servo drive systems; servo motors, torque motors, linear motors, and spindle motors; angle sensing systems, linear laser interferometer and feedback ruler, laser tool setting instrument, and wireless workpiece probe; and various drive swing angle milling heads, laser rulers, wireless probes, laser interferometers, turntables, rotary table, electric spindles, etc. The company was founded in 2008 and is based in Dalian, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

KEDE Numerical Control Co reported revenue of ¥552M in FY2025 versus ¥254M in FY2021, a compound +21.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥88.8M in FY2025, compounding +5.1%/yr from FY2021.

688305 screens 76% overvalued. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →

Peer Group

Specialty Industrial Machinery · 809 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.