Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics Group (688385) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · CN · Market cap 44.4B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 12, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 12, 2026, revised from ¥9.57 to ¥6.01 (−37.2%) since Jul 12, 2026. Share price −27.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 89% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥6.01). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥23.62 – ¥97.91 · fair‑value band ¥4.53 – ¥6.01 · the ¥53.89 price screens above the ¥6.01 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 12, 2026.
Analysis
Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics Group (688385) currently trades at ¥53.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥6.01, implying the stock looks roughly 88.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics Group generated revenue of 4.1B CNY at a net margin of 5.9%. Revenue grew 16.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.1%. Net debt stands at 177M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥4.53 (bear case) to ¥6.01 (bull case); at ¥53.89, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -67% fair-value upside, at -89%, 688385 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥11.21) versus Dividend Discount (¥1.99). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics Group Company Limited engages in the design, development, and sale of integrated circuit products in Mainland China and internationally.
Full company description
Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics Group Company Limited engages in the design, development, and sale of integrated circuit products in Mainland China and internationally. The company offers security and identification products, including RFID and sensor, smart card, and identification device chip; smart meters, such as automotive MCU, smart meters ASIC chips, ultra-low general purpose MCU, and ePLC; and NVM products comprising EEPROM, SPI NOR Flash, and NAND Flash. It also provides specific analog circuits, including leakage protection circuit series (LPCS), a and s type LPCS, over_under voltage LPCS, telecommunication circuits, and motorcycle-automotive and motorcycle electronics. In addition, the company offers various solutions, such as issuance and validation services, bank card solution, smart meter solution, social security card solution, smart transportation card solution, and ePLC solution. The company was formerly known as Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics Company Limited. Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics Group Company Limited was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics Group reported revenue of ¥4.0B in FY2025 versus ¥2.6B in FY2021, a compound +11.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥232M in FY2025, compounding −18.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +15.4 pp · buybacks/dilution −3.7 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
688385 screens 89% overvalued. Compare with NVIDIA Corporation →
Peer Group
Semiconductors · 325 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Semiconductors stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA Corporation NVDA | $211.80 | $96.91 | -54% |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company TSM | $418.47 | $208.16 | -50% |
| Broadcom Inc 1AVGO | €367.75 | €121.25 | -67% |
| Micron Technology, Inc ZMIC | C$52.57 | C$7.50 | -86% |
| SK hynix Inc 000660 | 2,082,000 KRW | 1,109,311 KRW | -47% |
| Advanced Micro Devices, Inc 1AMD | €425.20 | €56.33 | -87% |
| Intel Corporation INTC | C$68.40 | C$9.82 | -86% |
| Texas Instruments Incorporated TXN | $311.46 | $59.75 | -81% |
| MediaTek Inc 2454 | 3,740 TWD | 1,163 TWD | -69% |
| SK Square Co 402340 | 1,212,000 KRW | 868,000 KRW | -28% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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