MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A (688449) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A ¥8.65, price ¥55.80, upside -84.5%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
22‑month range ¥37.02 – ¥88.53 · fair‑value band ¥6.49 – ¥12.38 · the ¥55.80 price screens above the ¥8.65 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Maxio Technology (Hangzhou) Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, marketing, and sale of data management, general-purpose IP, and SOC chips in China. The company offers technology development and technical services, production of computer software products, sales of self-produced products.
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Maxio Technology (Hangzhou) Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, marketing, and sale of data management, general-purpose IP, and SOC chips in China. The company offers technology development and technical services, production of computer software products, sales of self-produced products. It also offers SSD controller, embedded storage control, and network communication chips, as well as SATA and PCIe SSD, and embedded memory solutions. In addition, the company offers data storage main control chips and AIoT signal processing and transmission chips, and related services. Further, it's products are used in consumer electronics, servers, industrial control, transportation, industrial Internet of Things, smart office and other fields. Maxio Technology (Hangzhou) Co., Ltd. was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.
Stock analysis
MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A (688449) currently trades at ¥55.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥8.65, 84.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥12.50 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥55.80 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥2.78, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥6.49 (bear) to ¥12.38 (bull), the price of ¥55.80 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A reported revenue of 1.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 573M CNY in FY2022, a compound +32.3%/yr. Reported net income was 142M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 29.3B CNY (≈ $4.4B) · P/E ratio 146.8 · P/S ratio 15.7 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.3800 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 10.7% · Return on equity 9.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −41% fair-value upside, at −85%, 688449 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.1000 to ¥14.64). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ¥6.49Fair Value ¥8.65Bull ¥12.38
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.2495 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.3%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +23.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+22.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−11% → 11%
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 54% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+64.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +61.8% a year for the price.
Compare MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 329 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside−84.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9.7% · Above median
Return on assets4.1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)12.2% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)4.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth47.4% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)146.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B15.36× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)20.31× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF305.9× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 88
PAST (return on equity)39· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)2· sector 19
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/688449
Frequently asked questions
Is MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A (688449) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥8.65 versus a price of ¥55.80, about −85% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 688449?
Our model-based fair value for MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A is ¥8.65 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥55.80.
What is the quality score of 688449?
MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A (688449)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥8.65 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥6.49, optimistic scenario ¥12.38. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥8.65, about −85% upside versus a price of ¥55.80 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥6.49, optimistic scenario ¥12.38. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A (688449)?
MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A pay a dividend?
MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.09% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A (688449)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A would have to grow free cash flow by +64.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +32.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 688449 use?
Our models discount MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A that is +64.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A (688449) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A grew +32.3 % a year. The price currently implies +64.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A (688449) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +15.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A (+64.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A (688449)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.37 %: that much free cash flow MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A (688449)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A it is ¥8.65 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥55.80. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 688449 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥55.80, fair value ¥8.65, a gap of about −85% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 688449?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥55.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥8.65). For MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A the two are ¥47.15 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A worth?
The market values MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A at about 29.3B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥55.80; our models calculate a fair value of ¥8.65 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 688449?
Our models span a range for MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A: cautious scenario ¥6.49, base ¥8.65, optimistic ¥12.38 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥55.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 688449?
MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 146.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥8.65 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 15.4, P/S 20.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A (688449)?
Balance-sheet figures for MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 688449 from its 52-week high?
MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A trades at ¥55.80, about 37% below its 52-week high of ¥88.53 and 35% above the low of ¥41.21 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥8.65 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A?
From the same area (Technology) we also value NVIDIA Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom Inc, Micron Technology, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥55.80, calculated fair value ¥8.65 (−85%), Quality Score 53/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 688449 calculated?
We run MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥8.65, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A (688449)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was ¥55.80. Our model-based fair value is ¥8.65, about −85% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥12.38). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (¥6.49 to ¥12.38) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A
How large is the market capitalisation of MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A (688449)?
The market capitalisation of MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A is 29.3B CNY (≈ $4.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A (688449)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A is 15.7 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A (688449)?
Earnings per share at MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A are ¥0.3800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 146.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A (688449)?
The dividend yield of MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A is 0.1% (payout 13.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A (688449)?
The net margin of MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A is 10.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A (688449)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A is 9.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A (688449)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A is 3.0% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A (688449)?
The operating margin of MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A is 4.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A (688449)?
Revenue at MAXIO TECHNOLOGY (HANGZHOU) LTD A is growing +47.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +32.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
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