Guoguang Electric Co (688776) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 6.5B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from ¥72.54 to ¥11.84 (−83.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −5.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 77% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥14.80). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (¥7.81 to ¥14.80) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
59‑month range ¥36.11 – ¥177.34 · fair‑value band ¥7.81 – ¥14.80 · the ¥50.88 price screens above the ¥11.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Guoguang Electric Co (688776) currently trades at ¥50.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥11.84, implying the stock looks roughly 76.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Guoguang Electric Co generated revenue of 223M CNY at a net margin of -63.4%. Revenue declined 51.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -7.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 456M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥7.81 (bear case) to ¥14.80 (bull case); at ¥50.88, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 66% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -77%, 688776 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (¥10.80) versus Dividend Discount (¥1.77). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Guoguang Electric Co.,Ltd.Chengdu engages in the research and development, production, and sale of microwave devices in China and internationally.
Full company description
Guoguang Electric Co.,Ltd.Chengdu engages in the research and development, production, and sale of microwave devices in China and internationally. It offers microwave electric vacuum devices, such as traveling wave tubes, magnetrons, and traveling wave tubes; microwave energy application equipment; vacuum contactors; cathode components and magnetic materials; vacuum contactor arc extinguishing chambers; vacuum equipment and leak detection; vacuum components comprising direct drive vacuum and molecular pumps, accessories, and valves; aircraft galley equipment consisting of food carts, airborne kitchen equipment, and other strollers; microwave instruments, power source, and application equipment. The company also provides vacuum gauges, including resistance, piezoresistive, thermocouple, thermionic, cold cathode ionization, composite, filament thermocouple, short filament thermocouple, thermocathode ionization, and thermionic cathode ultra-high vacuum gauges, as well as vacuum transmitters and flange dimensions. In addition, it offers microwave waveguide components, encapsulated housing products, reactors, laser therapy devices, laser tube laser power supplies, and alloy materials. Guoguang Electric Co.,Ltd. Chengdu was formerly known as Guoguang Electron Tube General Factory. The company was founded in 1958 and is based in Chengdu, China. Guoguang Electric Co.,Ltd. Chengdu operates as a subsidiary of Xinyu Huanuojin Enterprise Management Co., Ltd.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Guoguang Electric Co reported revenue of ¥279M in FY2025 versus ¥590M in FY2021, a compound −17.1%/yr. Reported net income was −¥96.2M in FY2025.
688776 screens 77% overvalued. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →
Peer Group
Specialty Industrial Machinery · 809 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GE Vernova Inc 1GEV | €887.60 | €186.93 | -79% |
| 1SIE 1SIE | €273.20 | €91.93 | -66% |
| SMNS SMNS | C$31.76 | C$22.68 | -29% |
| Eaton Corporation ETN | $407.28 | $171.92 | -58% |
| Atlas Copco AB ATCOA | kr 195.15 | kr 112.59 | -42% |
| Sandvik AB SAND | kr 384.10 | kr 193.01 | -50% |
| Doosan Enerbility Co 034020 | 76,400 KRW | 7,938 KRW | -90% |
| Vestas Wind Systems A/S VWS | kr 178.10 | kr 124.54 | -30% |
| Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co 002050 | ¥43.20 | ¥22.68 | -48% |
| NARI Technology Co 600406 | ¥22.19 | ¥18.71 | -16% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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