Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co (688981) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co stock ¥13.31, price ¥100, upside -86.7%, quality 39 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥36.83 – ¥173.00 · fair‑value band ¥9.98 – ¥17.35 · the ¥100.09 price screens above the ¥13.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacture, testing, and sale of integrated circuits wafer and various compound semiconductors in the United States, China, and Eurasia.
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The company is also involved in the manufacturing, sale, and trading of semiconductor products; and research and development activities.
In addition, it offers semiconductor foundry and technology services; supporting services comprising design and IP support, photomask manufacturing, etc.; development, design, and technical services related to integrated circuits; marketing related services; and private education services.
Further, the company tests and sells self-produced products, and other services. Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
Stock analysis
Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co (688981) currently trades at ¥100.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥13.31, 86.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥22.44 per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the ¥100.09 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at ¥4.83, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥9.98 (bear) to ¥17.35 (bull), the price of ¥100.09 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co reported revenue of $9.6B in FY2025 versus $5.4B in FY2021, a compound +15.3%/yr. Reported net income was $1,000M in FY2025, compounding −12.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.1T CNY (≈ $167B) Large · P/E ratio 128.7 · P/S ratio 13.4 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.8700 · Net margin 10.4% · Return on equity 4.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.4% · Operating margin 17.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −87%, 688981 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥4.83 to ¥98.43). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear¥9.98Fair Value ¥13.31Bull¥17.35
Price ¥100.09 · Upside -86.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.7055 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.57/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.7% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−3.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−3.0% vs 4.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 12%
Compare Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 350 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−86.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)4.2% · Below median
Return on assets1.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)10.0% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)17.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)36.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.47× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)128.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B7.81× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)16.13× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA32.5× · Pricier than median
PEG2.58× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 95
PAST (return on equity)17· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)77· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 18
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/688981
Frequently asked questions
Is Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co (688981) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥13.31 versus a price of ¥100.09, about −87% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 688981?
Our model-based fair value for Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co is ¥13.31 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥100.09.
What is the quality score of 688981?
Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co (688981)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥13.31 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥9.98, optimistic scenario ¥17.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥13.31, about −87% upside versus a price of ¥100.09 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥9.98, optimistic scenario ¥17.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co (688981)?
Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $10.4B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co (688981)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co it is ¥13.31 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of ¥100.09. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, 688981 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥100.09, fair value ¥13.31, a gap of about −87% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 688981?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥100.09); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥13.31). For Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co the two are ¥86.78 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co worth?
The market values Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co at about 1.1T CNY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is ¥100.09; our models calculate a fair value of ¥13.31 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 688981?
Our models span a range for Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co: cautious scenario ¥9.98, base ¥13.31, optimistic ¥17.35 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price ¥100.09). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 688981?
Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 128.7 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥13.31 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.6, P/B 7.8, P/S 16.1, EV/EBITDA 32.5.
What is the PEG ratio of 688981?
The PEG ratio of Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co is 2.58 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co (688981)?
Balance-sheet figures for Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 4.2%, debt of 0.47 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 688981 from its 52-week high?
Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co trades at ¥100.09, about 42% below its 52-week high of ¥173.00 and 9% above the low of ¥91.78 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥13.31 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co?
From the same area (Technology) we also value NVIDIA Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom Inc, Micron Technology, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price ¥100.09, calculated fair value ¥13.31 (−87%), Quality Score 39/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 688981 calculated?
We run Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥13.31, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co (688981)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was ¥100.09. Our model-based fair value is ¥13.31, about −87% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥17.35). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co (688981) come from?
Earnings per share at Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co grew +11.3 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.6 %, EBIT margin +5.7 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co (688981)?
The market capitalisation of Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co is 1.1T CNY (≈ $167B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co (688981)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co is 13.4 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co (688981)?
Earnings per share at Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co are ¥0.8700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 128.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co (688981)?
The net margin of Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co is 10.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co (688981)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co is 4.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co (688981)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co is 2.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co (688981)?
The operating margin of Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co is 17.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co (688981)?
Revenue at Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co is growing +36.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co (688981)?
Earnings per share at Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co are growing +259% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co (688981) generate?
The free cash flow of Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co is −$5.2B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co (688981) carry?
The net debt of Semiconductor Manufacturing Intl Co is $6.7B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 3, 2026