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PF Group Holdings Ltd (8221) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of PF Group Holdings Ltd HK$1.86, price HK$1.66, upside +12.1%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · HK · ISIN KYG704861080

PG Thin data Sep 27, 2026

PF Group Holdings Ltd

8221 · HK

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

✓Fair value HK$1.86 · Undervalued (+12.1%)
!Quality 39/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +9.2 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -56.6% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/10)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$4.10 HK$0.5500 Fair Value HK$1.86 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.5500 – HK$4.10 · fair‑value band HK$1.23 – HK$2.32 · the HK$1.66 price screens below the HK$1.86 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Gaoyu Finance Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides financial services in Hong Kong.

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Gaoyu Finance Group Limited, an investment holding company, provides financial services in Hong Kong. The company offers securities dealing and brokerage services; placing and underwriting services; financing services, including loan financing, securities and initial public offering margin financing, and money lending; asset management; supply chain financing; trust; and advisory services. It also provides open-ended fund and supply chain services. The company was formerly known as PF Group Holdings Limited and changed its name to Gaoyu Finance Group Limited in December 2023. The company was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong. Gaoyu Finance Group Limited is a subsidiary of Chance Wise Investments Limited.

Stock analysis

PF Group Holdings Ltd (8221) currently trades at HK$1.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.86, implying the stock looks roughly 10.8% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: HK$1.23 (bear) to HK$2.32 (bull), the price of HK$1.66 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

PF Group Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$25.5M in FY2026 versus HK$7.4M in FY2022, a compound +36.0%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$10.1M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap HK$104M (≈ $13.3M) · P/S ratio 5.83 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.1600 · Net margin −39.7% · Return on equity −7.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.7% · Operating margin −73.4% · Revenue (TTM) HK$17.9M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 71% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 12%, 8221 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$1.23 Fair Value HK$1.86 Bull HK$2.32
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.42 HK$1.90 HK$2.84 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.42 HK$1.90 HK$2.84 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 39/100

Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65

Profitability 3
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 41
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 9
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 64
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 95
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 70
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 74
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 50
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 27/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−15.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −4.6% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−107.4% (2021) → −29.6% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Compare PF Group Holdings Ltd with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 464 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +12.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −4.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −56.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −73.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −21.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.25× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.10× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.74× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)49 · sector 34
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 96
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)87 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 43

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, MS $196.31 $314.07 +60%
The Goldman Sachs Group GS $935.45 $766.86 −18%
The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW $99.03 $118.07 +19%
Interactive Brokers Group IBKR $89.24 $23.12 −74%
Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD $116.22 $47.77 −59%
Macquarie Group MQG A$239.53 A$80.51 −66%
CITIC Securities Company 600030 ¥26.29 ¥18.35 −30%
Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 ¥17.21 ¥19.35 +12%
East Money Information Co 300059 ¥18.28 ¥4.94 −73%
Nomura Holdings NMR $9.91 $10.19 +3%

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PF Group Holdings Ltd · Fair Value
HK$1.86 +11%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PF Group Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8221

Frequently asked questions

Is PF Group Holdings Ltd (8221) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.86 versus a price of HK$1.66, about +12% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 8221?
Our model-based fair value for PF Group Holdings Ltd is HK$1.86 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.66.
What is the quality score of 8221?
PF Group Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PF Group Holdings Ltd (8221)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.86 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.23, optimistic scenario HK$2.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PF Group Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.86, about +12% upside versus a price of HK$1.66 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.23, optimistic scenario HK$2.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PF Group Holdings Ltd (8221)?
PF Group Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$17.9M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of PF Group Holdings Ltd (8221)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PF Group Holdings Ltd it is HK$1.86 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$1.66. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PF Group Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 8221 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$1.66, fair value HK$1.86, a gap of about +12% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8221?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.66); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.86). For PF Group Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.2000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PF Group Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values PF Group Holdings Ltd at about HK$104M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.66; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.86 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8221?
Our models span a range for PF Group Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$1.23, base HK$1.86, optimistic HK$2.32 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$1.66). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of PF Group Holdings Ltd (8221)?
Balance-sheet figures for PF Group Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −7.2%, debt of 0.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 8221 from its 52-week high?
PF Group Holdings Ltd trades at HK$1.66, about 32% below its 52-week high of HK$2.44 and 71% above the low of HK$0.9700 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.86 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PF Group Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PF Group Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$1.66, calculated fair value HK$1.86 (+12%), Quality Score 39/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8221 calculated?
We run PF Group Holdings Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.86, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. PF Group Holdings Ltd currently trades 11 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PF Group Holdings Ltd (8221)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$1.66. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.86, about +12% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PF Group Holdings Ltd right now?
A fairly wide model range (HK$1.23 to HK$2.32) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of PF Group Holdings Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of PF Group Holdings Ltd (8221)?
The market capitalisation of PF Group Holdings Ltd is HK$104M (≈ $13.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PF Group Holdings Ltd (8221)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PF Group Holdings Ltd is 5.83 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PF Group Holdings Ltd (8221)?
Earnings per share at PF Group Holdings Ltd are HK$−0.1600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of PF Group Holdings Ltd (8221)?
The net margin of PF Group Holdings Ltd is −39.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PF Group Holdings Ltd (8221)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PF Group Holdings Ltd is −7.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PF Group Holdings Ltd (8221)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PF Group Holdings Ltd is −1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PF Group Holdings Ltd (8221)?
The operating margin of PF Group Holdings Ltd is −73.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PF Group Holdings Ltd (8221)?
Revenue at PF Group Holdings Ltd is growing −21.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PF Group Holdings Ltd (8221)?
Earnings per share at PF Group Holdings Ltd are growing −94.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does PF Group Holdings Ltd (8221) generate?
The free cash flow of PF Group Holdings Ltd is −HK$9.3M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does PF Group Holdings Ltd (8221) carry?
The net debt of PF Group Holdings Ltd is HK$26.9M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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