Ahsay Backup Software Development Company (8290) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Ahsay Backup Software Development Company HK$0.04, price HK$0.04, upside -7.9%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Ahsay Backup Software Development Company Limited, an investment holding company, provides online backup software solutions in the United States of America, Hong Kong, and internationally. It operates through Online Backup Software and Related Services; and Information Platform segments.
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Ahsay Backup Software Development Company Limited, an investment holding company, provides online backup software solutions in the United States of America, Hong Kong, and internationally. It operates through Online Backup Software and Related Services; and Information Platform segments. The company sells and leases software license; and sells hardware devices, as well as offers software upgrades and maintenance, and other services under the Ahsay brand name. It also offers information sharing services through KINBOY, an information analysis tool for horse racing information to provide users an alternative way to access information electronically; and KINTIPS for information providers and subscribers to share information through its website and mobile application. The company provides its solutions to IT consultants, web hosting companies, telecommunications companies, and MSPs. Ahsay Backup Software Development Company Limited was formerly known as Ahsay Cloud Backup Software Development Company Ltd. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Lai Chi Kok, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Ahsay Backup Software Development Company (8290) currently trades at HK$0.0380, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0350, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.6%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$0.0400 per share, and 7 of the 14 models we run sit above the HK$0.0380 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.0200, and 7 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Ahsay Backup Software Development Company reported revenue of HK$36.4M in FY2025 versus HK$47.9M in FY2021, a compound −6.6%/yr. Reported net income was HK$172K in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$76.0M (≈ $9.7M) · P/S ratio 2.22 · Net margin 0.5% · Return on equity 0.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −5.9% · Operating margin −7.9% · Revenue (TTM) HK$34.2M · Revenue growth (YoY) −11.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 73% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −8%, 8290 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.0350Fair Value HK$0.0350Bull HK$0.0350
Price HK$0.0380 · Upside -7.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −4.4% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−21.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−21.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−21.2% vs −42.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−16% → −7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 7.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.9% a year for the price.
Compare Ahsay Backup Software Development Company with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 640 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside−7.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)0.5% · Below median
Return on assets−1.5% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0.8% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−7.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−11.8% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ahsay Backup Software Development Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8290
Frequently asked questions
Is Ahsay Backup Software Development Company (8290) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.0350 versus a price of HK$0.0380, about −8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 8290?
Our model-based fair value for Ahsay Backup Software Development Company is HK$0.0350 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.0380.
What is the quality score of 8290?
Ahsay Backup Software Development Company has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ahsay Backup Software Development Company (8290)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.0350 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 14 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ahsay Backup Software Development Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.0350, about −8% upside versus a price of HK$0.0380 (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ahsay Backup Software Development Company (8290)?
Ahsay Backup Software Development Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$34.2M (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ahsay Backup Software Development Company (8290)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ahsay Backup Software Development Company would have to grow free cash flow by +7.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -7.9 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 8290 use?
Our models discount Ahsay Backup Software Development Company at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.83, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ahsay Backup Software Development Company that is +7.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ahsay Backup Software Development Company (8290) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ahsay Backup Software Development Company grew -7.9 % a year. The price currently implies +7.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ahsay Backup Software Development Company (8290) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ahsay Backup Software Development Company (+7.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ahsay Backup Software Development Company (8290)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.57 %: that much free cash flow Ahsay Backup Software Development Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ahsay Backup Software Development Company (8290)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ahsay Backup Software Development Company it is HK$0.0350 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of HK$0.0380. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ahsay Backup Software Development Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, 8290 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.0380, fair value HK$0.0350, a gap of about −8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8290?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.0380); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.0350). For Ahsay Backup Software Development Company the two are HK$0.0030 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ahsay Backup Software Development Company worth?
The market values Ahsay Backup Software Development Company at about HK$76.0M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.0380; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.0350 per share.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ahsay Backup Software Development Company (8290)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ahsay Backup Software Development Company (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 0.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 8290 from its 52-week high?
Ahsay Backup Software Development Company trades at HK$0.0380, about 33% below its 52-week high of HK$0.0570 and 73% above the low of HK$0.0220 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.0350 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ahsay Backup Software Development Company?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ahsay Backup Software Development Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price HK$0.0380, calculated fair value HK$0.0350 (−8%), Quality Score 61/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8290 calculated?
We run Ahsay Backup Software Development Company through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.0350, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Ahsay Backup Software Development Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ahsay Backup Software Development Company (8290)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$0.0380. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.0350, about −8% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ahsay Backup Software Development Company right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.0350). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Ahsay Backup Software Development Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Ahsay Backup Software Development Company (8290)?
The market capitalisation of Ahsay Backup Software Development Company is HK$76.0M (≈ $9.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ahsay Backup Software Development Company (8290)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ahsay Backup Software Development Company is 2.22 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Ahsay Backup Software Development Company (8290)?
The net margin of Ahsay Backup Software Development Company is 0.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ahsay Backup Software Development Company (8290)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ahsay Backup Software Development Company is 0.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ahsay Backup Software Development Company (8290)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ahsay Backup Software Development Company is −5.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ahsay Backup Software Development Company (8290)?
The operating margin of Ahsay Backup Software Development Company is −7.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ahsay Backup Software Development Company (8290)?
Revenue at Ahsay Backup Software Development Company is growing −11.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ahsay Backup Software Development Company (8290)?
Earnings per share at Ahsay Backup Software Development Company are growing +291% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Ahsay Backup Software Development Company (8290) hold?
Ahsay Backup Software Development Company holds more cash than debt, HK$50.7M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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