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Gudou Holdings Ltd (8308) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Gudou Holdings Ltd HK$0.03, price HK$0.02, upside +47.0%, quality 24 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Cyclical · HK · ISIN KYG419791085

GH Thin data Sep 27, 2026

Gudou Holdings Ltd

8308 · HK

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

✓Fair value HK$0.0338 · Undervalued (+47.0%)
!Quality 24/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −16.0 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -116.5% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (4/10)
!Narrow moat 1/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 24 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$0.8900 HK$0.0230 Fair Value HK$0.0338 Sep 2020 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.0230 – HK$0.8900 · fair‑value band HK$0.0297 – HK$0.0419 · the HK$0.0230 price screens below the HK$0.0338 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Gudou Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the operation and management of hot spring resort and hotel facilities in the People's Republic of China. It operates in two segments, Property Development, and Hotel and Resort Operations.

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Gudou Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the operation and management of hot spring resort and hotel facilities in the People's Republic of China. It operates in two segments, Property Development, and Hotel and Resort Operations. The company develops and sells tourism properties, including villas, apartments, studio flats, commercial units, and carpark spaces; operates and manages hot spring resort, such as hot spring facilities, six themed hotels, F&B outlets, waterpark, and ancillary leisure and recreational attractions; and property management. It also provides consultancy services to third-party resort and hotel operators. The company was formerly known as Gudou International Holdings Limited and changed its name to Gudou Holdings Limited in October 2015. Gudou Holdings Limited was founded in 2003 and is based in Jiangmen, the People's Republic of China.

Stock analysis

Gudou Holdings Ltd (8308) currently trades at HK$0.0230, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0338, implying the stock looks roughly 32.0% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: HK$0.0297 (bear) to HK$0.0419 (bull), the price of HK$0.0230 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 24/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Gudou Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 53.2M CNY in FY2025 versus 64.0M CNY in FY2021, a compound −4.5%/yr. Reported net income was −61.9M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$69.4M (≈ $8.9M) · P/S ratio 1.31 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0300 · Net margin −117% · Return on equity −36.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −7.1% · Operating margin −20.1% · Revenue (TTM) 53.2M CNY.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 73% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 47% fair-value upside, at 47%, 8308 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.0297 Fair Value HK$0.0338 Bull HK$0.0419
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.0700 HK$0.0900 HK$0.1400 53
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.0700 HK$0.0900 HK$0.1400 53

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 24/100

Of which business quality 24 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 16

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 41
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 25
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 12
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 3
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−16.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −12.5% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
20.5% (2020) → −59.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Compare Gudou Holdings Ltd with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Resorts & Casinos · 69 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 24 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +47.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −1.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −116.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −20.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 4.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.95× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.05× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.17× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)96 · sector 49
FUTURE (revenue growth)24 · sector 21
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 15
HEALTH (low debt)52 · sector 75
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 60

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Gambling

Similar stocks

10 more Resorts & Casinos stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Las Vegas Sands Corp LVS $38.78 $55.26 +42%
Galaxy Entertainment Group 0027 HK$31.70 HK$46.74 +47%
Sands China Ltd 1928 HK$11.91 HK$18.87 +58%
Wynn Resorts, Limited WYNN $81.12 $147.69 +82%
MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, MGM $32.58 $18.04 −45%
Caesars Entertainment, Inc CZR $29.59 $80.89 +173%
Genting Singapore Limited G13 0.6150 SGD 0.5600 SGD −9%
Red Rock Resorts, Inc RRR $50.76 $31.15 −39%
Boyd Gaming Corporation BYD $71.23 $130.75 +84%
Vail Resorts, Inc MTN $136.11 $152.57 +12%

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HK$0.0338 +32%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gudou Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8308

Frequently asked questions

Is Gudou Holdings Ltd (8308) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.0338 versus a price of HK$0.0230, about +47% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 8308?
Our model-based fair value for Gudou Holdings Ltd is HK$0.0338 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.0230.
What is the quality score of 8308?
Gudou Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 24/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gudou Holdings Ltd (8308)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.0338 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.0297, optimistic scenario HK$0.0419. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gudou Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.0338, about +47% upside versus a price of HK$0.0230 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.0297, optimistic scenario HK$0.0419. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gudou Holdings Ltd (8308)?
Gudou Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 53.2M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Gudou Holdings Ltd (8308)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gudou Holdings Ltd it is HK$0.0338 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.0230. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gudou Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 8308 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.0230, fair value HK$0.0338, a gap of about +47% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8308?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.0230); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.0338). For Gudou Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.0108 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gudou Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Gudou Holdings Ltd at about HK$69.4M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.0230; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.0338 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8308?
Our models span a range for Gudou Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.0297, base HK$0.0338, optimistic HK$0.0419 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.0230). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gudou Holdings Ltd (8308)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gudou Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −36.6%, debt of 0.95 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 24/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 8308 from its 52-week high?
Gudou Holdings Ltd trades at HK$0.0230, about 73% below its 52-week high of HK$0.0860 and at the low of HK$0.0230 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.0338 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gudou Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Las Vegas Sands Corp, Galaxy Entertainment Group, Sands China Ltd, Wynn Resorts, Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gudou Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.0230, calculated fair value HK$0.0338 (+47%), Quality Score 24/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8308 calculated?
We run Gudou Holdings Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.0338, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Gudou Holdings Ltd currently trades 32 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gudou Holdings Ltd (8308)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.0230. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.0338, about +47% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gudou Holdings Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (24/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.0297). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Gudou Holdings Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Gudou Holdings Ltd (8308)?
The market capitalisation of Gudou Holdings Ltd is HK$69.4M (≈ $8.9M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gudou Holdings Ltd (8308)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gudou Holdings Ltd is 1.31 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gudou Holdings Ltd (8308)?
Earnings per share at Gudou Holdings Ltd are HK$−0.0300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Gudou Holdings Ltd (8308)?
The net margin of Gudou Holdings Ltd is −117% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gudou Holdings Ltd (8308)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gudou Holdings Ltd is −36.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gudou Holdings Ltd (8308)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gudou Holdings Ltd is −7.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gudou Holdings Ltd (8308)?
The operating margin of Gudou Holdings Ltd is −20.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gudou Holdings Ltd (8308)?
Revenue at Gudou Holdings Ltd is growing +4.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gudou Holdings Ltd (8308)?
Earnings per share at Gudou Holdings Ltd are growing −41.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Gudou Holdings Ltd (8308) generate?
The free cash flow of Gudou Holdings Ltd is −8.3M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Gudou Holdings Ltd (8308) carry?
The net debt of Gudou Holdings Ltd is 231M CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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