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King Force Sec Hldg Ltd (8315) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what King Force Sec Hldg Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Industrials · HK · ISIN KYG4080P1283

KF Thin data Sep 13, 2026

King Force Sec Hldg Ltd

8315 · HK

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value HK$0.1382 · Strongly undervalued (+116%)
!Quality 56/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +3.1 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 11.5% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (6/10)
!Narrow moat 30/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$0.7000 HK$0.0280 Fair Value HK$0.1382 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.0280 – HK$0.7000 · fair‑value band HK$0.1254 – HK$0.1510 · the HK$0.0640 price screens below the HK$0.1382 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

Century Plaza Hotel Group, an investment holding company, provides security guarding services in Hong Kong and the People's Republic of China. It operates through Security guarding, property management and human resources; Asset management; and Hospitality catering and beverage services segments.

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Century Plaza Hotel Group, an investment holding company, provides security guarding services in Hong Kong and the People's Republic of China. It operates through Security guarding, property management and human resources; Asset management; and Hospitality catering and beverage services segments. The company also provides property management and human resources services; and business advisory and asset management services. In addition, it operates Chinese restaurant that offers hospitality catering and beverage services. The company was formerly as Greatwalle Inc. and changed its name to Century Plaza Hotel Group in May 2024. Century Plaza Hotel Group was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Sheung Wan, Hong Kong.

Stock analysis

King Force Sec Hldg Ltd (8315) currently trades at HK$0.0640, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1382, implying the stock looks roughly 53.7% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$0.3700 per share, and 10 of the 12 models we run sit above the HK$0.0640 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$0.0300, and 2 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$0.1254 (bear) to HK$0.1510 (bull), the price of HK$0.0640 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

King Force Sec Hldg Ltd reported revenue of HK$47.9M in FY2025 versus HK$62.0M in FY2021, a compound −6.3%/yr. Reported net income was HK$10.2M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$43.6M (≈ $5.6M) · P/E ratio 6.4 · P/S ratio 1.36 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0100 · Net margin 21.2% · Return on equity 199,273% · Return on assets (EBIT) −9.9% · Operating margin 6.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 71% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 116%, 8315 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.1254 Fair Value HK$0.1382 Bull HK$0.1510
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0100 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings HK$0.1500 HK$0.1900 HK$0.2500 75
EPV HK$0.1300 HK$0.1400 HK$0.1600 74
ROIC Compounder HK$0.1300 HK$0.1400 HK$0.1600 70
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings HK$0.1500 HK$0.1900 HK$0.2500 75
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.1200 HK$0.1500 HK$0.1600 65
EPV HK$0.1300 HK$0.1400 HK$0.1600 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.3700 HK$0.4900 HK$0.6100 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.2200 HK$0.3000 HK$0.3700 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.0200 HK$0.0300 HK$0.0400 54
EV/EBIT HK$0.3600 HK$0.4800 HK$0.6000 66
EV/EBITDA HK$0.3200 HK$0.4300 HK$0.5300 67
EV/Revenue HK$0.1800 HK$0.2600 HK$0.3400 53
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.0200 HK$0.0300 HK$0.5800 56
ROIC Compounder HK$0.1300 HK$0.1400 HK$0.1600 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.2600 HK$0.3700 HK$0.4800 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 16

Profitability 87
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 80
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 29
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 37
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 10
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 55
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 36/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−12.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−86.0% (2020) → 24.3% (2025)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Security & Protection Services · 111 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 56 · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 11% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −22% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 2.41× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 6.4× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 15.52× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 1.02× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 38
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 99
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 45

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Security & Protection Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
ASSA ABLOY AB ASSAB kr 341.10 kr 375.21 +10%
Verisure plc VSURE €8.68 €24.43 +182%
Allegion plc ALLE $153.35 $127.80 −17%
Securitas AB SECUB kr 150.00 kr 178.19 +19%
Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co 002236 ¥15.92 ¥31.47 +98%
MSA Safety Incorporated MSA $182.18 $116.42 −36%
ADT Inc ADT $7.05 $16.68 +137%
The Brink's Company BCO $111.98 $108.25 −3%
Brady Corporation BRC $86.94 $72.32 −17%
The GEO Group GEO $31.49 $17.28 −45%

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King Force Sec Hldg Ltd · Fair Value
HK$0.1382 +54%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "King Force Sec Hldg Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8315

Frequently asked questions

Is King Force Sec Hldg Ltd (8315) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1382 versus a price of HK$0.0640, about +116% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 8315?
Our model-based fair value for King Force Sec Hldg Ltd is HK$0.1382 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.0640.
What is the quality score of 8315?
King Force Sec Hldg Ltd has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for King Force Sec Hldg Ltd (8315)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.1382 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.1254, optimistic scenario HK$0.1510. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the King Force Sec Hldg Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.1382, about +116% upside versus a price of HK$0.0640 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.1254, optimistic scenario HK$0.1510. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of King Force Sec Hldg Ltd (8315)?
King Force Sec Hldg Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$42.9M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of King Force Sec Hldg Ltd (8315)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For King Force Sec Hldg Ltd it is HK$0.1382 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of HK$0.0640. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is King Force Sec Hldg Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 8315 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.0640, fair value HK$0.1382, a gap of about +116% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8315?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.0640); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.1382). For King Force Sec Hldg Ltd the two are HK$0.0742 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is King Force Sec Hldg Ltd worth?
The market values King Force Sec Hldg Ltd at about HK$43.6M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.0640; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.1382 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8315?
Our models span a range for King Force Sec Hldg Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.1254, base HK$0.1382, optimistic HK$0.1510 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price HK$0.0640). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 8315?
King Force Sec Hldg Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.4 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.1382 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 15.5, P/S 1.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of King Force Sec Hldg Ltd (8315)?
Balance-sheet figures for King Force Sec Hldg Ltd (as of Sep 13, 2026): debt of 2.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 8315 from its 52-week high?
King Force Sec Hldg Ltd trades at HK$0.0640, about 71% below its 52-week high of HK$0.2220 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.1382 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to King Force Sec Hldg Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value ASSA ABLOY AB, Verisure plc, Allegion plc, Securitas AB, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is King Force Sec Hldg Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price HK$0.0640, calculated fair value HK$0.1382 (+116%), Quality Score 56/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8315 calculated?
We run King Force Sec Hldg Ltd through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.1382, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. King Force Sec Hldg Ltd currently trades 116 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with King Force Sec Hldg Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.1254). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Key figures of King Force Sec Hldg Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of King Force Sec Hldg Ltd (8315)?
The market capitalisation of King Force Sec Hldg Ltd is HK$43.6M (≈ $5.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of King Force Sec Hldg Ltd (8315)?
The price-to-sales ratio of King Force Sec Hldg Ltd is 1.36 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of King Force Sec Hldg Ltd (8315)?
Earnings per share at King Force Sec Hldg Ltd are HK$0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of King Force Sec Hldg Ltd (8315)?
The net margin of King Force Sec Hldg Ltd is 21.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of King Force Sec Hldg Ltd (8315)?
The return on equity (ROE) of King Force Sec Hldg Ltd is 199,273% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of King Force Sec Hldg Ltd (8315)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of King Force Sec Hldg Ltd is −9.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of King Force Sec Hldg Ltd (8315)?
The operating margin of King Force Sec Hldg Ltd is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at King Force Sec Hldg Ltd (8315)?
Revenue at King Force Sec Hldg Ltd is growing −22.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at King Force Sec Hldg Ltd (8315)?
Earnings per share at King Force Sec Hldg Ltd are growing −84.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does King Force Sec Hldg Ltd (8315) generate?
The free cash flow of King Force Sec Hldg Ltd is −HK$13.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does King Force Sec Hldg Ltd (8315) carry?
The net debt of King Force Sec Hldg Ltd is HK$1.2M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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