CoreCivic, Inc (CXW) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $3.0B

A solid business, but screening 40% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($30.93). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• A fairly wide model range ($12.06 to $30.93) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $7.45 – $32.27 · fair‑value band $12.06 – $30.93 · the $32.27 price screens above the $19.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

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Analysis

CoreCivic, Inc (CXW) currently trades at $32.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.34, implying the stock looks roughly 40.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, CoreCivic, Inc generated revenue of $2.3B at a net margin of 5.5%. Revenue grew 25.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.0%. Net debt stands at $1.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $12.06 (bear case) to $30.93 (bull case); at $32.27, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 105% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at -40%, CXW screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($24.96) versus Dividend Discount ($0.0100). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

CoreCivic, Inc. owns and operates partnership correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities in the United States. It operates through three segments: CoreCivic Safety, CoreCivic Community, and CoreCivic Properties.

Full company description

CoreCivic, Inc. owns and operates partnership correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities in the United States. It operates through three segments: CoreCivic Safety, CoreCivic Community, and CoreCivic Properties. The company provides a range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through corrections and detention management, a network of residential reentry centers to help address recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. Its correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities offer rehabilitation and educational programs, including basic education, faith-based services, life skills and employment training, and substance abuse treatment; food services; and work and recreational programs as well as health care services, including medical, dental, and mental health services. The company was founded in 1983 and is based in Brentwood, Tennessee.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

CoreCivic, Inc reported revenue of $2.2B in FY2025 versus $1.9B in FY2021, a compound +4.4%/yr. Reported net income was $117M in FY2025.

CXW screens 40% overvalued. Compare with ASSA ABLOY AB →

Peer Group

Security & Protection Services · 113 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.