Kingcan Holdings Ltd (8411) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Kingcan Holdings Ltd TWD 4.45, price TWD 12.10, upside -63.2%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Kingcan Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, manufacture, and sale of various metal packaging containers and filling and canning in China and internationally. It also engages in trading; food cans to beverage and food manufacturers; beverage filling and bottling services; and canned filling OEM activities.
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Kingcan Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, manufacture, and sale of various metal packaging containers and filling and canning in China and internationally. It also engages in trading; food cans to beverage and food manufacturers; beverage filling and bottling services; and canned filling OEM activities. Kingcan Holdings Limited was founded in 1993 and is based in Grand Cayman, the Cayman Islands.
Stock analysis
Kingcan Holdings Ltd (8411) currently trades at 12.10 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 4.45 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 171.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 18.01 TWD per share, and 3 of the 11 models we run sit above the 12.10 TWD price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 0.5500 TWD, and 8 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 2.67 TWD (bear) to 6.67 TWD (bull), the price of 12.10 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Kingcan Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 9.2B TWD in FY2025 versus 7.8B TWD in FY2021, a compound +4.1%/yr. Reported net income was −152M TWD in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 2.9B TWD (≈ $90.2M) · P/S ratio 0.30 · EPS (TTM) −0.6900 TWD · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin −1.7% · Return on equity 0.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.9% · Operating margin 2.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −63%, 8411 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 2.67 TWDFair Value 4.45 TWDBull 6.67 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.7% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
4.4% (2020) → −0.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+75.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +72.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−63% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)0% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth24% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.8% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.41× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
P/FCF4.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA1.0× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 18
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 3
PAST (return on equity)1· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)80· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)17· sector 46
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Kingcan Holdings Ltd (8411) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 4.45 TWD versus a price of 12.10 TWD, about −63% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 8411?
Our model-based fair value for Kingcan Holdings Ltd is 4.45 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 12.10 TWD.
What is the quality score of 8411?
Kingcan Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kingcan Holdings Ltd (8411)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 4.45 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario 2.67 TWD, optimistic scenario 6.67 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kingcan Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 4.45 TWD, about −63% upside versus a price of 12.10 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 2.67 TWD, optimistic scenario 6.67 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kingcan Holdings Ltd (8411)?
Kingcan Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 9.7B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Kingcan Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Kingcan Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.83% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kingcan Holdings Ltd (8411)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kingcan Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +75.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 8411 use?
Our models discount Kingcan Holdings Ltd at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.09, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kingcan Holdings Ltd that is +75.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kingcan Holdings Ltd (8411) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kingcan Holdings Ltd grew +9.7 % a year. The price currently implies +75.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kingcan Holdings Ltd (8411) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kingcan Holdings Ltd (+75.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kingcan Holdings Ltd (8411)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.74 %: that much free cash flow Kingcan Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kingcan Holdings Ltd (8411)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kingcan Holdings Ltd it is 4.45 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 12.10 TWD. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kingcan Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 8411 trades above its calculated fair value: price 12.10 TWD, fair value 4.45 TWD, a gap of about −63% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8411?
No. The price is what the market pays today (12.10 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (4.45 TWD). For Kingcan Holdings Ltd the two are 7.65 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kingcan Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Kingcan Holdings Ltd at about 2.9B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 12.10 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 4.45 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8411?
Our models span a range for Kingcan Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario 2.67 TWD, base 4.45 TWD, optimistic 6.67 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 12.10 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kingcan Holdings Ltd (8411)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kingcan Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 0.3%, debt of 0.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 8411 from its 52-week high?
Kingcan Holdings Ltd trades at 12.10 TWD, about 9% below its 52-week high of 13.30 TWD and 3% above the low of 11.80 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 4.45 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kingcan Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, International Paper Company, Ball Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kingcan Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 12.10 TWD, calculated fair value 4.45 TWD (−63%), Quality Score 39/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8411 calculated?
We run Kingcan Holdings Ltd through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 4.45 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Kingcan Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kingcan Holdings Ltd (8411)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 12.10 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 4.45 TWD, about −63% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kingcan Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (6.67 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (2.67 TWD to 6.67 TWD) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Kingcan Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Kingcan Holdings Ltd (8411)?
The market capitalisation of Kingcan Holdings Ltd is 2.9B TWD (≈ $90.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kingcan Holdings Ltd (8411)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kingcan Holdings Ltd is 0.30 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kingcan Holdings Ltd (8411)?
Earnings per share at Kingcan Holdings Ltd are −0.6900 TWD. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kingcan Holdings Ltd (8411)?
The dividend yield of Kingcan Holdings Ltd is 0.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kingcan Holdings Ltd (8411)?
The net margin of Kingcan Holdings Ltd is −1.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kingcan Holdings Ltd (8411)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kingcan Holdings Ltd is 0.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kingcan Holdings Ltd (8411)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kingcan Holdings Ltd is 0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kingcan Holdings Ltd (8411)?
The operating margin of Kingcan Holdings Ltd is 2.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kingcan Holdings Ltd (8411)?
Revenue at Kingcan Holdings Ltd is growing +23.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kingcan Holdings Ltd (8411)?
Earnings per share at Kingcan Holdings Ltd are growing −56.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Kingcan Holdings Ltd (8411) carry?
The net debt of Kingcan Holdings Ltd is 3.8B TWD (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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