Kingcan Holdings (8411) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · TW · Market cap 2.9B TWD
Fair value as of: Jul 23, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated 18 days ago
Share price +5.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 88% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (6.24 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide (1.56 TWD to 6.24 TWD). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 11.00 TWD – 18.54 TWD · fair‑value band 1.56 TWD – 6.24 TWD · the 13.05 TWD price screens above the 1.56 TWD fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 23, 2026.
Analysis
Kingcan Holdings (8411) currently trades at 13.05 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1.56 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 88.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Kingcan Holdings generated revenue of 9.7B TWD at a net margin of 0.2%. Revenue grew 23.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.3%. Net debt stands at 3.8B TWD. Fundamentals as of Jul 23, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 1.56 TWD (bear case) to 6.24 TWD (bull case); at 13.05 TWD, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -88%, 8411 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (18.01 TWD) versus Dividend Discount (0.7600 TWD). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 23, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Kingcan Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, manufacture, and sale of various metal packaging containers and filling and canning in China and internationally. It also engages in trading; food cans to beverage and food manufacturers; beverage filling and bottling services; and canned filling OEM activities.
Full company description
Kingcan Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, manufacture, and sale of various metal packaging containers and filling and canning in China and internationally. It also engages in trading; food cans to beverage and food manufacturers; beverage filling and bottling services; and canned filling OEM activities. Kingcan Holdings Limited was founded in 1993 and is based in Grand Cayman, the Cayman Islands.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Kingcan Holdings reported revenue of 9.2B TWD in FY2025 versus 7.8B TWD in FY2021, a compound +4.1%/yr. Reported net income was −152M TWD in FY2025.
8411 screens 88% overvalued. Compare with Stora Enso Oyj →
Peer Group
Packaging & Containers · 272 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 23, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stora Enso Oyj STER | kr 101.90 | kr 126.39 | +24% |
| ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co 002831 | ¥29.10 | ¥20.88 | -28% |
| SCG Packaging Public Company SCGP | 29.00 THB | 16.12 THB | -44% |
| AblePrint Technology Co 7734 | 2,850 TWD | 661.69 TWD | -77% |
| PT Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk, FASW | 5,312 IDR | 1,194 IDR | -78% |
| Taiwan Hon Chuan Enterprise Co 9939 | 132.50 TWD | 127.06 TWD | -4% |
| Time Technoplast Limited TIMETECHNO | ₹206.82 | ₹161.42 | -22% |
| EPL Limited 500135 | ₹222.25 | ₹111.65 | -50% |
| Ton Yi Industrial Corp 9907 | 15.15 TWD | 23.17 TWD | +53% |
| Dongwon Systems Corporation 014820 | 19,330 KRW | 31,473 KRW | +63% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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