Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd (8439) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · HK · Market cap HK$199M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$0.2400 to HK$0.1800 (−25.0%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price −22.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 84% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.2300). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.3100 – HK$2.40 · fair‑value band HK$0.1600 – HK$0.2300 · the HK$1.13 price screens above the HK$0.1800 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd (8439) currently trades at HK$1.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1800, implying the stock looks roughly 84.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$55.7M at a net margin of -3.4%. Revenue grew 5.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -3.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$45.7M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.1600 (bear case) to HK$0.2300 (bull case); at HK$1.13, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and 290% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -84%, 8439 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$0.4900) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.1200). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Somerley Capital Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides corporate finance advisory services in Hong Kong. It operates through two segments, Corporate Finance Advisory Service and Asset Management Service.
Full company description
Somerley Capital Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides corporate finance advisory services in Hong Kong. It operates through two segments, Corporate Finance Advisory Service and Asset Management Service. The company acts as a financial adviser to Hong Kong public listed companies, major shareholders, and investors, as well as parties seeking to control or invest in listed companies; and a financial adviser to independent board committees and/or independent shareholders of listed companies. It also acts as a compliance adviser newly listed and existing listed companies in Hong Kong; a sponsor to initial public offerings and listings of shares of companies on the stock exchange in Hong Kong; and an advisor for cross-border mergers and acquisitions, as well as provides advisory services on secondary equity issues. In addition, the company offers corporate advisory services related to takeovers of listed companies, connected transactions, privatizations, acquisitions and disposals, spin-offs and reorganizations, and restructuring or divestment transactions. It serves the conglomerate, consumer, industrial, renewables, financial institutions and insurance, property and construction, gaming and hospitality, and TMT, as well as energy, natural resources, and infrastructure industries. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong. Somerley Capital Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Somerley Group Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$58.1M in FY2026 versus HK$68.2M in FY2022, a compound −3.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$2.1M in FY2026.
8439 screens 84% overvalued. Compare with Mirae Asset Securities Co →
Peer Group
Capital Markets · 423 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mirae Asset Securities Co 006800 | 38,050 KRW | 18,009 KRW | -53% |
| Meritz Financial Group 138040 | 118,600 KRW | 52,717 KRW | -56% |
| Korea Investment Holdings 071050 | 200,500 KRW | 189,335 KRW | -6% |
| NH Investment & Securities Co 005940 | 28,550 KRW | 22,396 KRW | -22% |
| Samsung Securities Co 016360 | 93,100 KRW | 75,573 KRW | -19% |
| Kiwoom Securities Co 039490 | 299,000 KRW | 214,812 KRW | -28% |
| SSI Securities Corporation SSI | 25,300 VND | 17,375 VND | -31% |
| Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos S.A BYMA | 313.75 ARS | 294.30 ARS | -6% |
| Daishin Securities Co 003540 | 26,950 KRW | 48,790 KRW | +81% |
| SK Securities Co 001515 | 4,285 KRW | 1,395 KRW | -67% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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