Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd (8439) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd HK$0.29, price HK$1.07, upside -72.9%, quality 70 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.3100 – HK$2.40 · fair‑value band HK$0.2900 – HK$0.3000 · the HK$1.07 price screens above the HK$0.2900 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Somerley Capital Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides corporate finance advisory services in Hong Kong. It operates through two segments, Corporate Finance Advisory Service and Asset Management Service.
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Somerley Capital Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides corporate finance advisory services in Hong Kong. It operates through two segments, Corporate Finance Advisory Service and Asset Management Service. The company acts as a financial adviser to Hong Kong public listed companies, major shareholders, and investors, as well as parties seeking to control or invest in listed companies; and a financial adviser to independent board committees and/or independent shareholders of listed companies. It also acts as a compliance adviser newly listed and existing listed companies in Hong Kong; a sponsor to initial public offerings and listings of shares of companies on the stock exchange in Hong Kong; and an advisor for cross-border mergers and acquisitions, as well as provides advisory services on secondary equity issues. In addition, the company offers corporate advisory services related to takeovers of listed companies, connected transactions, privatizations, acquisitions and disposals, spin-offs and reorganizations, and restructuring or divestment transactions. It serves the conglomerate, consumer, industrial, renewables, financial institutions and insurance, property and construction, gaming and hospitality, and TMT, as well as energy, natural resources, and infrastructure industries. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong. Somerley Capital Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Somerley Group Limited.
Stock analysis
Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd (8439) currently trades at HK$1.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.2900, 72.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$0.5200 per share, and 1 of the 11 models we run sit above the HK$1.07 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.1200, and 10 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.2900 (bear) to HK$0.3000 (bull), the price of HK$1.07 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$58.1M in FY2026 versus HK$68.2M in FY2022, a compound −3.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$2.1M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap HK$199M (≈ $25.4M) · P/S ratio 3.57 · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin 3.6% · Return on equity −3.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −5.5% · Operating margin 3.5% · Revenue (TTM) HK$55.7M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and 245% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −73%, 8439 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.2900Fair Value HK$0.2900Bull HK$0.3000
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.32/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.5% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−22.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−24.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−24.7% vs −18.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.8%/yr over ~9Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+57.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +54.6% a year for the price.
Compare Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 464 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−72.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−0.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−3.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)3.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.9% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.41× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.46× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF44.5× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 34
FUTURE (revenue growth)28· sector 96
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)37· sector 43
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8439
Frequently asked questions
Is Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd (8439) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.2900 versus a price of HK$1.07, about −73% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 8439?
Our model-based fair value for Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd is HK$0.2900 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.07.
What is the quality score of 8439?
Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd (8439)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.2900 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.2900, optimistic scenario HK$0.3000. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.2900, about −73% upside versus a price of HK$1.07 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.2900, optimistic scenario HK$0.3000. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd (8439)?
Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$55.7M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.87% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd (8439)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +57.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -5.1 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 8439 use?
Our models discount Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 1.22, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd that is +57.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd (8439) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd grew -5.1 % a year. The price currently implies +57.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd (8439) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd (+57.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd (8439)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.36 %: that much free cash flow Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd (8439)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd it is HK$0.2900 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$1.07. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 8439 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$1.07, fair value HK$0.2900, a gap of about −73% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8439?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.07); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.2900). For Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.7800 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd at about HK$199M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.07; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.2900 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8439?
Our models span a range for Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.2900, base HK$0.2900, optimistic HK$0.3000 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$1.07). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd (8439)?
Balance-sheet figures for Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −3.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 8439 from its 52-week high?
Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd trades at HK$1.07, about 55% below its 52-week high of HK$2.40 and 245% above the low of HK$0.3100 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.2900 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$1.07, calculated fair value HK$0.2900 (−73%), Quality Score 70/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8439 calculated?
We run Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.2900, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd (8439)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$1.07. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.2900, about −73% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd right now?
A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.3000). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. The models converge in a tight band (HK$0.2900 to HK$0.3000), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Key figures of Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd (8439)?
The market capitalisation of Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd is HK$199M (≈ $25.4M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd (8439)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd is 3.57 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd (8439)?
The dividend yield of Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd is 1.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd (8439)?
The net margin of Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd is 3.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd (8439)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd is −3.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd (8439)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd is −5.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd (8439)?
The operating margin of Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd is 3.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd (8439)?
Revenue at Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd is growing +5.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd (8439)?
Earnings per share at Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd are growing +19.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd (8439) hold?
Somerley Capital Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$45.7M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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