Green River Holding (8444) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · TW · Market cap 618M TWD
Fair value as of: Jul 23, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 18 days ago
Share price −1.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 68% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (1.94 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (16/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 4.52 TWD – 142.05 TWD · fair‑value band 1.59 TWD – 1.94 TWD · the 5.50 TWD price screens above the 1.74 TWD fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 23, 2026.
Analysis
Green River Holding (8444) currently trades at 5.50 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1.74 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 68.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 16/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Green River Holding generated revenue of 2.6B TWD at a net margin of -41.0%. Revenue declined 57.4% year over year. Net debt stands at 6.4B TWD. Fundamentals as of Jul 23, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 1.59 TWD (bear case) to 1.94 TWD (bull case); at 5.50 TWD, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 68% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -32% fair-value upside, at -68%, 8444 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (2.34 TWD) versus Dividend Discount (2.05 TWD). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 23, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 15 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 23
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Green River Holding Co. Ltd. manufactures, processing, and sells particle boards, solid wood boards, and resin in Thailand. The company also offers melamine faced chip boards. It exports its products in Malaysia, Vietnam, China, Korea, and other Asian regions. The company was founded in 2000 and is based in Songkhla, Thailand.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Green River Holding reported revenue of 3.3B TWD in FY2025 versus 5.8B TWD in FY2021, a compound −13.2%/yr. Reported net income was −1.1B TWD in FY2025.
8444 screens 68% overvalued. Compare with Simpson Manufacturing Co →
Peer Group
Lumber & Wood Production · 76 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Lumber & Wood Production median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Lumber & Wood Production stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 23, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simpson Manufacturing Co SSD | $188.80 | $147.92 | -22% |
| West Fraser Timber Co WFG | C$98.54 | C$51.55 | -48% |
| UFP Industries, Inc UFPI | $85.93 | $108.78 | +27% |
| Stella-Jones Inc SJ | C$78.93 | C$96.01 | +22% |
| Boise Cascade Company BCC | $76.06 | $51.92 | -32% |
| Century Plyboards (India) Limited CENTURYPLY | ₹799.50 | ₹201.01 | -75% |
| DeHua TB New Decoration Material Co 002043 | ¥11.74 | ¥14.78 | +26% |
| Canfor Corporation CFP | C$14.17 | C$4.54 | -68% |
| Interfor Corporation IFP | C$13.45 | C$6.43 | -52% |
| Kangxin New Materials Co 600076 | ¥3.05 | ¥0.6700 | -78% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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