Green River Holding Co Ltd (8444) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Green River Holding Co Ltd TWD 1.77, price TWD 4.40, upside -59.8%, quality 16 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Green River Holding Co. Ltd. manufactures, processing, and sells particle boards, solid wood boards, and resin in Thailand. The company also offers melamine faced chip boards. It exports its products in Malaysia, Vietnam, China, Korea, and other Asian regions. The company was founded in 2000 and is based in Songkhla, Thailand.
Stock analysis
Green River Holding Co Ltd (8444) currently trades at 4.40 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1.77 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 148.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 93/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: 1.32 TWD (bear) to 2.64 TWD (bull), the price of 4.40 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 16/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Green River Holding Co Ltd reported revenue of 3.3B TWD in FY2025 versus 5.8B TWD in FY2021, a compound −13.2%/yr. Reported net income was −1.1B TWD in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 634M TWD (≈ $19.9M) · P/S ratio 0.24 · EPS (TTM) −9.80 TWD · Net margin −33.9% · Return on equity −225% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.5% · Operating margin −51.0% · Revenue (TTM) 2.6B TWD.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 23 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 69% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −60%, 8444 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 1.32 TWDFair Value 1.77 TWDBull 2.64 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.1/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−33.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
1.6% (2020) → −26.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare Green River Holding Co Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lumber & Wood Production · 76 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score15 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−60% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−41% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−51% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−57% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.32× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Lumber & Wood Production median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.05× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 24
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 4
HEALTH (low debt)84· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 37
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Green River Holding Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8444
Frequently asked questions
Is Green River Holding Co Ltd (8444) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1.77 TWD versus a price of 4.40 TWD, about −60% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 8444?
Our model-based fair value for Green River Holding Co Ltd is 1.77 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 4.40 TWD.
What is the quality score of 8444?
Green River Holding Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 16/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Green River Holding Co Ltd (8444)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 1.77 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario 1.32 TWD, optimistic scenario 2.64 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Green River Holding Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 1.77 TWD, about −60% upside versus a price of 4.40 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 1.32 TWD, optimistic scenario 2.64 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Green River Holding Co Ltd (8444)?
Green River Holding Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.6B TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Green River Holding Co Ltd (8444)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Green River Holding Co Ltd it is 1.77 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 4.40 TWD. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Green River Holding Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 8444 trades above its calculated fair value: price 4.40 TWD, fair value 1.77 TWD, a gap of about −60% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8444?
No. The price is what the market pays today (4.40 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (1.77 TWD). For Green River Holding Co Ltd the two are 2.63 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Green River Holding Co Ltd worth?
The market values Green River Holding Co Ltd at about 634M TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 4.40 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 1.77 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8444?
Our models span a range for Green River Holding Co Ltd: cautious scenario 1.32 TWD, base 1.77 TWD, optimistic 2.64 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 4.40 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Green River Holding Co Ltd (8444)?
Balance-sheet figures for Green River Holding Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −224.5%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 16/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 8444 from its 52-week high?
Green River Holding Co Ltd trades at 4.40 TWD, about 69% below its 52-week high of 14.30 TWD and at the low of 4.40 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 1.77 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Green River Holding Co Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Simpson Manufacturing Co, UFP Industries, Inc, Boise Cascade Company, Century Plyboards (India) Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Green River Holding Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 4.40 TWD, calculated fair value 1.77 TWD (−60%), Quality Score 16/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8444 calculated?
We run Green River Holding Co Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 1.77 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Green River Holding Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Green River Holding Co Ltd (8444)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 4.40 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 1.77 TWD, about −60% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Green River Holding Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (2.64 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (16/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (1.32 TWD to 2.64 TWD) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Green River Holding Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Green River Holding Co Ltd (8444)?
The market capitalisation of Green River Holding Co Ltd is 634M TWD (≈ $19.9M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Green River Holding Co Ltd (8444)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Green River Holding Co Ltd is 0.24 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Green River Holding Co Ltd (8444)?
Earnings per share at Green River Holding Co Ltd are −9.80 TWD. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Green River Holding Co Ltd (8444)?
The net margin of Green River Holding Co Ltd is −33.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Green River Holding Co Ltd (8444)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Green River Holding Co Ltd is −225% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Green River Holding Co Ltd (8444)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Green River Holding Co Ltd is −3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Green River Holding Co Ltd (8444)?
The operating margin of Green River Holding Co Ltd is −51.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Green River Holding Co Ltd (8444)?
Revenue at Green River Holding Co Ltd is growing −57.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Green River Holding Co Ltd (8444)?
Earnings per share at Green River Holding Co Ltd are growing +114% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Green River Holding Co Ltd (8444) generate?
The free cash flow of Green River Holding Co Ltd is −410M TWD (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Green River Holding Co Ltd (8444) carry?
The net debt of Green River Holding Co Ltd is 6.4B TWD (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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