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Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd (8536) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd HK$0.19, price HK$0.24, upside -20.5%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Cyclical · HK · ISIN KYG889141175

TN Thin data Sep 27, 2026

Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd

8536 · HK

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value HK$0.1900 · Overvalued (−20.5%)
!Quality 41/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +11.2 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -8.9% net margin (TTM)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/9)
!Narrow moat 6/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 6 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$11.56 HK$0.1070 Fair Value HK$0.1900 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.1070 – HK$11.56 · fair‑value band HK$0.1200 – HK$0.2300 · the HK$0.2390 price screens above the HK$0.1900 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

TL Natural Gas Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, sells compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) in China. The company distributes LNG to wholesale customers and CNG to retail customers, such as vehicular end-users and wholesale customers, including urban gas companies, gas refueling station operators, and industrial users.

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TL Natural Gas Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, sells compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) in China. The company distributes LNG to wholesale customers and CNG to retail customers, such as vehicular end-users and wholesale customers, including urban gas companies, gas refueling station operators, and industrial users. It also engages in digital marketing; automated car wash services; and the provision of fast-food catering service, as well as transmission services for natural gas. TL Natural Gas Holdings Limited was formerly known as Huazhong Natural Gas Group Holdings Limited and changed its name to TL Natural Gas Holdings Limited in April 2017. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Jingzhou, China.

Stock analysis

Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd (8536) currently trades at HK$0.2390, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1900, 20.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: HK$0.1200 (bear) to HK$0.2300 (bull), the price of HK$0.2390 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 86.6M CNY in FY2025 versus 46.4M CNY in FY2021, a compound +16.9%/yr. Reported net income was −7.7M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$47.4M (≈ $6.0M) · P/S ratio 0.46 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.0100 · Net margin −8.9% · Return on equity −14.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −8.6% · Operating margin −7.8% · Revenue (TTM) 86.6M CNY.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at −21%, 8536 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.1200 Fair Value HK$0.1900 Bull HK$0.2300
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.1400 HK$0.1900 HK$0.2800 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.1400 HK$0.1900 HK$0.2800 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 41/100

Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47

Profitability 24
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 37
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 3
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 95
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 45
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 45
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 22
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 32/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−10.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.3% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−45.3% (2020) → −7.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

8536 screens overvalued: fair value 21% below the price. Compare with Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Retail · 218 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −20.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −6.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −8.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −7.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −3.5% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.12× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.07× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)6 · sector 46
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 23
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 64

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc ATD C$78.50 C$106.10 +35%
Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM $231.03 $164.11 −29%
Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA $547.89 $650.56 +19%
Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY $606.24 $405.93 −33%
Best Buy Co BBY $89.91 $94.70 +5%
Tractor Supply Company TSCO $32.27 $36.59 +13%
China Tourism Group 601888 ¥51.46 ¥40.40 −21%
DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS $134.70 $201.62 +50%
Five Below, Inc FIVE $222.60 $184.99 −17%
GameStop Corp GME $23.39 $13.85 −41%

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Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd · Fair Value
HK$0.1900 −21%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8536

Frequently asked questions

Is Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd (8536) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.1900 versus a price of HK$0.2390, about −21% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 8536?
Our model-based fair value for Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd is HK$0.1900 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.2390.
What is the quality score of 8536?
Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd (8536)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.1900 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.1200, optimistic scenario HK$0.2300. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.1900, about −21% upside versus a price of HK$0.2390 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.1200, optimistic scenario HK$0.2300. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd (8536)?
Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 86.6M CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd (8536)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd it is HK$0.1900 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.2390. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 8536 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$0.2390, fair value HK$0.1900, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8536?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.2390); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.1900). For Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.0490 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd at about HK$47.4M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.2390; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.1900 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8536?
Our models span a range for Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.1200, base HK$0.1900, optimistic HK$0.2300 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.2390). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd (8536)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −14.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 8536 from its 52-week high?
Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd trades at HK$0.2390, about 18% below its 52-week high of HK$0.2900 and 38% above the low of HK$0.1730 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.1900 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc, Williams-Sonoma, Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.2390, calculated fair value HK$0.1900 (−21%), Quality Score 41/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8536 calculated?
We run Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.1900, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd (8536)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.2390. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.1900, about −21% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.2300). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.1200 to HK$0.2300) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd (8536)?
The market capitalisation of Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd is HK$47.4M (≈ $6.0M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd (8536)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd is 0.46 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd (8536)?
Earnings per share at Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd are HK$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd (8536)?
The net margin of Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd is −8.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd (8536)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd is −14.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd (8536)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd is −8.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd (8536)?
The operating margin of Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd is −7.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd (8536)?
Revenue at Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd is growing −3.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd (8536)?
Earnings per share at Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd are growing −39.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd (8536) generate?
The free cash flow of Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd is −3.5M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd (8536) hold?
Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, 29.7M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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