Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd (8536) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$39.7M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Share price +24.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 38% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.1900). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$0.1000 to HK$0.1900) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.1070 – HK$11.56 · fair‑value band HK$0.1000 – HK$0.1900 · the HK$0.2430 price screens above the HK$0.1500 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd (8536) currently trades at HK$0.2430, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.1500, implying the stock looks roughly 38.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$86.6M at a net margin of -8.9%. Revenue declined 3.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -14.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$29.7M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.1000 (bear case) to HK$0.1900 (bull case); at HK$0.2430, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -20% fair-value upside, at -38%, 8536 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
TL Natural Gas Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, sells compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) in China. The company distributes LNG to wholesale customers and CNG to retail customers, such as vehicular end-users and wholesale customers, including urban gas companies, gas refueling station operators, and industrial users.
Full company description
TL Natural Gas Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, sells compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) in China. The company distributes LNG to wholesale customers and CNG to retail customers, such as vehicular end-users and wholesale customers, including urban gas companies, gas refueling station operators, and industrial users. It also engages in digital marketing; automated car wash services; and the provision of fast-food catering service, as well as transmission services for natural gas. TL Natural Gas Holdings Limited was formerly known as Huazhong Natural Gas Group Holdings Limited and changed its name to TL Natural Gas Holdings Limited in April 2017. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Jingzhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Tl Natural Gas Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$86.6M in FY2025 versus HK$46.4M in FY2021, a compound +16.9%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$7.7M in FY2025.
8536 screens 38% overvalued. Compare with Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc →
Peer Group
Specialty Retail · 223 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc ATD | C$93.19 | C$75.00 | -20% |
| Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY | $839.03 | $398.90 | -52% |
| Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM | $245.15 | $162.63 | -34% |
| Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA | $531.89 | $475.40 | -11% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $202.66 | $181.10 | -11% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $83.00 | $108.04 | +30% |
| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥54.97 | ¥40.40 | -27% |
| Tractor Supply Company TSCO | $36.43 | $35.52 | -2% |
| Murphy USA Inc MUSA | $544.22 | $423.35 | -22% |
| Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 | 109.50 TWD | 80.98 TWD | -26% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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