Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd (8540) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd HK$8.72, price HK$4.39, upside +98.9%, quality 75 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$1.72 – HK$9.41 · fair‑value band HK$2.13 – HK$14.01 · the HK$4.39 price screens below the HK$8.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Victory Securities (Holdings) Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides integrated financial services in Hong Kong.
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Victory Securities (Holdings) Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides integrated financial services in Hong Kong. It provides securities/futures/insurance policies broking, placing, and underwriting services; securities advising, financing, asset management, and financial advisory services; and investment and insurance consultancy services. The company also offers virtual asset dealing services; securities brokerage services with respect to virtual asset-related exchange traded funds; and virtual asset advisory services, as well as markets and distributes virtual asset-related private funds. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Sheung Wan, Hong Kong. Victory Securities (Holdings) Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of Dr. TT Kou's Family Company Limited.
Stock analysis
Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd (8540) currently trades at HK$4.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$8.72, implying the stock looks roughly 49.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$12.60 per share, and 6 of the 12 models we run sit above the HK$4.39 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$1.58, and 6 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$2.13 (bear) to HK$14.01 (bull), the price of HK$4.39 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd reported revenue of HK$212M in FY2025 versus HK$82.9M in FY2021, a compound +26.4%/yr. Reported net income was HK$60.4M in FY2025, compounding +41.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$862M (≈ $110M) · P/E ratio 13.9 · P/S ratio 3.97 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.2100 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 28.5% · Return on equity 28.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 99%, 8540 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$2.13Fair Value HK$8.72Bull HK$14.01
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.1239 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+210.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+48.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.7% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+31.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+30.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.30.6% vs 19.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.35% → 13%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−10.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −12.6% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 464 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+98.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)28.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets11.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)29.7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)−32.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth94.8% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8540
Frequently asked questions
Is Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd (8540) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$8.72 versus a price of HK$4.39, about +99% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 8540?
Our model-based fair value for Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd is HK$8.72 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$4.39.
What is the quality score of 8540?
Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd (8540)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$8.72 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$2.13, optimistic scenario HK$14.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$8.72, about +99% upside versus a price of HK$4.39 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$2.13, optimistic scenario HK$14.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd (8540)?
Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$203M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd pay a dividend?
Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.03% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd (8540)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -10.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.5 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 8540 use?
Our models discount Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.18, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd that is -10.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd (8540) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd grew +22.5 % a year. The price currently implies -10.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd (8540) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd (-10.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd (8540)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.65 %: that much free cash flow Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd (8540)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd it is HK$8.72 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$4.39. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 8540 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$4.39, fair value HK$8.72, a gap of about +99% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8540?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$4.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$8.72). For Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd the two are HK$4.34 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd worth?
The market values Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd at about HK$862M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$4.39; our models calculate a fair value of HK$8.72 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8540?
Our models span a range for Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd: cautious scenario HK$2.13, base HK$8.72, optimistic HK$14.01 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$4.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 8540?
Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.9 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$8.72 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.6, P/S 4.2, EV/EBITDA 10.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd (8540)?
Balance-sheet figures for Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 28.4%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 75/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 8540 from its 52-week high?
Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd trades at HK$4.39, about 17% below its 52-week high of HK$5.31 and 11% above the low of HK$3.96 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$8.72 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$4.39, calculated fair value HK$8.72 (+99%), Quality Score 75/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8540 calculated?
We run Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$8.72, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd currently trades 50 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd (8540)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$4.39. Our model-based fair value is HK$8.72, about +99% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (75/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The model range is unusually wide (HK$2.13 to HK$14.01). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd (8540)?
The market capitalisation of Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd is HK$862M (≈ $110M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd (8540)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd is 3.97 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd (8540)?
Earnings per share at Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd are HK$0.2100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd (8540)?
The dividend yield of Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd is 1.0% (payout 21.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd (8540)?
The net margin of Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd is 28.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd (8540)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd is 28.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd (8540)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd is −1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd (8540)?
The operating margin of Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd is −32.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd (8540)?
Revenue at Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd is growing +94.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +48.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd (8540)?
Earnings per share at Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd are growing +615% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd (8540) hold?
Victory Securities Holdings Company Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$2.1M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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